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To: Carry_Okie

And conservatives need to support Arnold now when he needs it, so when McClintock will run in 2010, Arnold will support him -- he will need it.

If so-called conservatives support Angelides this November, -- by staying home, voting third party, or even voting for Angelides, to defeat the "RINO" Arnold (I put "RINO" in quotes, because Arnold is NOT a RINO, but some claim he is, who rather have Angelides) -- and Arnold will win anyway, then maybe Arnold will indeed be fed up enough with the so-called conservatives, who are never there to support him, that he won't lift a finger to help McClintock when he runs for governor. And don't kid yourself that it won't make any difference.

By not supporting Arnold today, you may either get us Angelides for the next 8 years, or Arnold wins despite your non-support, then in 2010 you can be pleased that you have only yourselves to blame if Villaraigosa defeats McClintock.



14 posted on 06/17/2006 12:05:15 PM PDT by FairOpinion (Dem Foreign Policy: SURRENDER to our enemies. Real conservatives don't help Dems get elected.)
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To: FairOpinion
...Conservatives need to support Arnold now when he needs it, so when McClintock will run in 2010, Arnold will support him -- he will need it.

Tom has made this very clear.

16 posted on 06/17/2006 12:28:23 PM PDT by b9 ("the [evil Marxist liberal socialist Democrat Party] alternative is unthinkable" ~ Jim Robinson)
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To: FairOpinion
Arnold will support him -- he will need it.

Arnold has already shown the predisposition to reneg on his support for McClintock.

I put "RINO" in quotes, because Arnold is NOT a RINO, but some claim he is,

Given that the majority of his appointments have been Democrats, this is one of the most dishonest posts I have ever seen on FreeRepublic.

then maybe Arnold will indeed be fed up enough with the so-called conservatives, who are never there to support him, that he won't lift a finger to help McClintock when he runs for governor. And don't kid yourself that it won't make any difference.

Plenty of conservatives were fool enough to be bullied into supporting him during the recall and now regret it. He repaid that support with the back of his hand.

By not supporting Arnold today, you may either get us Angelides for the next 8 years,

Ooo, more FEAR mongering. Given that this state recalled Gray Davis, this bald faced assertion has no support. Angeleides will be far worse than Davis ever dreamed.

34 posted on 06/17/2006 6:30:59 PM PDT by Carry_Okie (There are people in power who are truly evil.)
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To: FairOpinion; ncountylee; calcowgirl; Amerigomag; NormsRevenge; Carry_Okie; AuH2ORepublican; ...

FairOpinion: "By not supporting Arnold today, you may either get us Angelides for the next 8 years, or Arnold wins despite your non-support, then in 2010 you can be pleased that you have only yourselves to blame if Villaraigosa defeats McClintock."


Record for RINO Governors handing off their offices to Conservative/GOP successors (since 1988):

AL: Not applicable
AK: Not applicable
AZ: Jane Dee Hull (RINO), succeeded by Janet Napolitano (D)
AR: Outcome unknown until November (Huckabee, RINO)
CA: Pete Wilson (RINO), succeeded by Grey Davis (D)
CO: Outcome unknown until November (Owens, RINO)
CT: Likely successful pass of office from RINO John Rowland to RINO incumbent Jodi Rell
DE: Mike Castle (RINO), succeeded by Tom Carper (D)
FL: Bob Martinez (RINO incumbent) defeated by Lawton Chiles (D)
GA: Not applicable
HI: Not applicable (possible outcome in November for incumbent)
ID: Not applicable
IL: Bill Thompson (RINO) to Jim Edgar (RINO) to George Ryan (RINO), succeeded by Rod Blagojevich (D)
IN: Not applicable
IA: Not applicable (though Branstad considered RINO by some, in which case successor, Tom Vilsack (D))
KS: Mike Hayden (RINO) defeated by Joan Finney (DINO) & Bill Graves (RINO) succeeded by Kathleen Gilligan Sebelius (D)
KY: Not applicable
LA: Not applicable (though Foster considered RINO by some, in which case successor Blanco (D))
ME: Jock McKernan (RINO), succeeded by liberal Angus King (I)
MD: Not applicable (possible outcome in November for incumbent)
MA: The RINO hegemony, Weld-Cellucci-Swift-Romney, will likely come to an end this fall
MI: Not applicable
MN: Arne Carlson (RINO), succeeded by liberal Jesse Ventura (I)
MS: Not applicable
MO: Not applicable
MT: Not applicable (though some consider Martz to be a RINO)
NE: Kay Orr (RINO), defeated by Ben Nelson (DINO)
NV: Outcome unknown until November (Guinn, RINO)
NH: Not applicable
NJ: Tom Kean (RINO) succeeded by Jim Florio (D); Christie Whitman/Donnie DiFrancesco (RINOs) succeeded by Jim McGreevey (D)
NM: Not applicable (though some considered Gary Johnson a RINO, he was a Libertarian)
NY: Outcome unknown (though likely D) until November (Pataki, RINO)
NC: Not applicable
ND: Not applicable
OH: Successful RINO handoff from Voinovich to Taft, but ultimate outcome in November
OK: Not applicable
OR: Not applicable
PA: Tom Ridge (RINO), temporary successor Schweiker a Conservative, but went to Rendell (D)
RI: Ed DiPrete (RINO) defeated by Bruce Sundlun (D), 1990; Successful RINO to Conservative handoff from Lincoln Almond to Don Carcieri ONLY successful move from Liberal RINO to Conservative in 20 years, not counting SD)
SC: Not applicable (but some argue David Beasley a RINO, I say he was an unsuccessful Conservative)
SD: William Janklow (RINO) to Mike Rounds (R), successful handoff
TN: Lamar Alexander (RINO) succeeded by Ned McWherter (D); Don Sundquist (RINO) succeeded by Phil Bredesen (D)
TX: Not applicable
UT: Not applicable (though Leavitt was a borderline RINO)
VT: Not applicable (not counting death of Richard Snelling (RINO), succeeded by Howard Dean (D)
VA: Not applicable
WA: Not applicable (have to go back to 1984 to the last RINO Governor)
WV: Not applicable
WI: Some consider Scott McCallum a RINO, which would count as a loss to Jim Doyle (D)
WY: Not applicable

In total, out of 50 states going back 18 years, you have:

Not applicable (meaning either no GOP Governor or Dem to Dem successions, or Conservative handing off to another Conservative, not counting Conservative to RINO, or Conservative being succeeded or defeated by a Dem): 18 (AL,AK,GA,ID,IN,KY,MI,MS,MO,NH,NC,ND,OK,OR,TX,VA,WA,WV,WY)
Clear loss of RINO to Democrat: 12 (AZ,CA,DE,FL,IL,KS,ME,MN,NE,NJ,PA,TN)
RINO to Democrat due to death: 1 (VT)
Unclear/Contested Appraisal of whether Governor a RINO with a Dem successor: 7 (IA,LA,MT,NM,SC,UT,WI)
Undetermined final outcome: 8 (CO,CT,HI,MD,MA,NV,NY,OH)
Previously Successful RINO to RINO: 3 (IL,MA,OH)
Successful RINO to Conservative: 2 (RI,SD)

In other words, in 18 years, you have only one election out of all 50 states (2002: Rhode Island) where a somewhat liberal Republican was succeeded by a Conservative Republican one (and that largely because the Democrat was viewed as an unpopular nut). In the case of SD (also 2002), the incumbent Janklow was a RINO not because of policy (which was fairly Conservative), but because of his personal conduct and selfishness that aided and abetted Democrat federal victories.

The chances that Ah-nold as a liberal RINO would hand off the Gubernatorial office to a Conservative (McClintock) at the next election has such a slim chance of happening as to be virtually impossible. Again, out of 225 individual elections nationwide since 1988, only 2 Conservatives succeeded RINOs. That means a 1 in 112 1/2 chance. That's a 0.88% chance that McClintock will be successful. Anyone seriously want to take those odds ?




By the way, I thought I'd do a quick canvass of these same elections and found 12 elections with which Republicans or RINOs dislodged Democrat incumbents since 1988:

9 Republicans defeating sitting Democrat incumbents:
AL-2 (Fob James d. Jim Folsom, Jr - 1994; Bob Riley d. Don Siegelman - 2002)
GA (Sonny Perdue d. Roy Barnes - 2002)
MI (John Engler d. Jim Blanchard - 1990)
MS-2 (Kirk Fordice d. Ray Mabus - 1991; Haley Barbour d. Ronnie Musgrove - 2003)
NM (Gary Johnson d. Bruce King - 1994)
NY (George Pataki d. Mario Cuomo - 1994)
TX (George W. Bush d. Ann Richards - 1994)

3 RINOs defeating sitting Democrat incumbents:
CA (Ah-nold d. Gray Davis - 2003)
MN (Arne Carlson d. Rudy Perpich - 1990)
NJ (Christie Whitman d. Jim Florio - 1993)

In any event, were Angelides the incumbent Governor, McClintock would have a 1 in 19 odds of defeating him. Formidable, but better than a 1 in 112 1/2 odds, don't you think ?


44 posted on 06/17/2006 8:30:15 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Cheney X -- Destroying the Liberal Democrat Traitors By Any Means Necessary -- Ya Dig ? Sho 'Nuff.)
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To: FairOpinion
I think your argument is bogus. Schwarzenegger will either support McClintock ro some degree, or not. It will have nothing to do with whether conservatives vote for him or not. If 100% of conservative voters come out for Schwarzenegger, it will have no impact on whether he support McClintock or not. There is zero indictation of that.

This is California, he will get reelected. I guarantee it.

67 posted on 06/17/2006 10:37:47 PM PDT by nickcarraway
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