FairOpinion: "By not supporting Arnold today, you may either get us Angelides for the next 8 years, or Arnold wins despite your non-support, then in 2010 you can be pleased that you have only yourselves to blame if Villaraigosa defeats McClintock."
Record for RINO Governors handing off their offices to Conservative/GOP successors (since 1988):
AL: Not applicable
AK: Not applicable
AZ: Jane Dee Hull (RINO), succeeded by Janet Napolitano (D)
AR: Outcome unknown until November (Huckabee, RINO)
CA: Pete Wilson (RINO), succeeded by Grey Davis (D)
CO: Outcome unknown until November (Owens, RINO)
CT: Likely successful pass of office from RINO John Rowland to RINO incumbent Jodi Rell
DE: Mike Castle (RINO), succeeded by Tom Carper (D)
FL: Bob Martinez (RINO incumbent) defeated by Lawton Chiles (D)
GA: Not applicable
HI: Not applicable (possible outcome in November for incumbent)
ID: Not applicable
IL: Bill Thompson (RINO) to Jim Edgar (RINO) to George Ryan (RINO), succeeded by Rod Blagojevich (D)
IN: Not applicable
IA: Not applicable (though Branstad considered RINO by some, in which case successor, Tom Vilsack (D))
KS: Mike Hayden (RINO) defeated by Joan Finney (DINO) & Bill Graves (RINO) succeeded by Kathleen Gilligan Sebelius (D)
KY: Not applicable
LA: Not applicable (though Foster considered RINO by some, in which case successor Blanco (D))
ME: Jock McKernan (RINO), succeeded by liberal Angus King (I)
MD: Not applicable (possible outcome in November for incumbent)
MA: The RINO hegemony, Weld-Cellucci-Swift-Romney, will likely come to an end this fall
MI: Not applicable
MN: Arne Carlson (RINO), succeeded by liberal Jesse Ventura (I)
MS: Not applicable
MO: Not applicable
MT: Not applicable (though some consider Martz to be a RINO)
NE: Kay Orr (RINO), defeated by Ben Nelson (DINO)
NV: Outcome unknown until November (Guinn, RINO)
NH: Not applicable
NJ: Tom Kean (RINO) succeeded by Jim Florio (D); Christie Whitman/Donnie DiFrancesco (RINOs) succeeded by Jim McGreevey (D)
NM: Not applicable (though some considered Gary Johnson a RINO, he was a Libertarian)
NY: Outcome unknown (though likely D) until November (Pataki, RINO)
NC: Not applicable
ND: Not applicable
OH: Successful RINO handoff from Voinovich to Taft, but ultimate outcome in November
OK: Not applicable
OR: Not applicable
PA: Tom Ridge (RINO), temporary successor Schweiker a Conservative, but went to Rendell (D)
RI: Ed DiPrete (RINO) defeated by Bruce Sundlun (D), 1990; Successful RINO to Conservative handoff from Lincoln Almond to Don Carcieri ONLY successful move from Liberal RINO to Conservative in 20 years, not counting SD)
SC: Not applicable (but some argue David Beasley a RINO, I say he was an unsuccessful Conservative)
SD: William Janklow (RINO) to Mike Rounds (R), successful handoff
TN: Lamar Alexander (RINO) succeeded by Ned McWherter (D); Don Sundquist (RINO) succeeded by Phil Bredesen (D)
TX: Not applicable
UT: Not applicable (though Leavitt was a borderline RINO)
VT: Not applicable (not counting death of Richard Snelling (RINO), succeeded by Howard Dean (D)
VA: Not applicable
WA: Not applicable (have to go back to 1984 to the last RINO Governor)
WV: Not applicable
WI: Some consider Scott McCallum a RINO, which would count as a loss to Jim Doyle (D)
WY: Not applicable
In total, out of 50 states going back 18 years, you have:
Not applicable (meaning either no GOP Governor or Dem to Dem successions, or Conservative handing off to another Conservative, not counting Conservative to RINO, or Conservative being succeeded or defeated by a Dem): 18 (AL,AK,GA,ID,IN,KY,MI,MS,MO,NH,NC,ND,OK,OR,TX,VA,WA,WV,WY)
Clear loss of RINO to Democrat: 12 (AZ,CA,DE,FL,IL,KS,ME,MN,NE,NJ,PA,TN)
RINO to Democrat due to death: 1 (VT)
Unclear/Contested Appraisal of whether Governor a RINO with a Dem successor: 7 (IA,LA,MT,NM,SC,UT,WI)
Undetermined final outcome: 8 (CO,CT,HI,MD,MA,NV,NY,OH)
Previously Successful RINO to RINO: 3 (IL,MA,OH)
Successful RINO to Conservative: 2 (RI,SD)
In other words, in 18 years, you have only one election out of all 50 states (2002: Rhode Island) where a somewhat liberal Republican was succeeded by a Conservative Republican one (and that largely because the Democrat was viewed as an unpopular nut). In the case of SD (also 2002), the incumbent Janklow was a RINO not because of policy (which was fairly Conservative), but because of his personal conduct and selfishness that aided and abetted Democrat federal victories.
The chances that Ah-nold as a liberal RINO would hand off the Gubernatorial office to a Conservative (McClintock) at the next election has such a slim chance of happening as to be virtually impossible. Again, out of 225 individual elections nationwide since 1988, only 2 Conservatives succeeded RINOs. That means a 1 in 112 1/2 chance. That's a 0.88% chance that McClintock will be successful. Anyone seriously want to take those odds ?
That is pretty impressive research, but how many "RINO" governors had "non RINO" Pubbie lieutenant governors? Will or will not McClintock being elected L. governor increase his chances of becoming governor?
Not that facts mean anything to you, BUT for those who are interested in facts:
No elected Republicans in CA in a statewide office, except Arnold.
And of course the voter demographics:
CALIFORNIA VOTER AND PARTY PROFILES
http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/JTF_VoterProfilesJTF.pdf
"The Democratic Party currently has an advantage of 1.4 million voters over the Republican Party (7.1 million to 5.7 million) or 9 percentage points (43% to 34%), according to the Secretary of State.
Among those most likely to vote in this year’s elections, Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 7-point margin (44% to 37%), while 15 percent of likely voters are registered as independents.
... the fact that independents are more likely to lean toward Democrats than Republicans (42% to 28%) tends to work to the disadvantage of the GOP in statewide elections."
WI - Scott McCallum was not a RINO. He lost because Tommy's little brother, Ed Thompson, ran as a Libertarian and got 10% of the vote.
Interesting info! Thanks!