Posted on 06/07/2006 1:04:03 PM PDT by Mobile Vulgus
The Nation Magazine is trying to soft sell the election in California's 50th District of Republican Brian Bilbray who is now replacing disgraced Republican, Randy "Duke" Cunningham. And they aren’t the only one’s trying to blow off the importance to the Democratic Party’s immediate future at the polls that this election might portend.
"Busby lost to Republican Brian Bilbray in a special election last night by 49 to 45 percent, in (a) heavily Republican district(s)." (For Nation Op EdClick here)But this claim of a "heavily Republican district" is not really the correct, up-to-date analysis of the district's voting trends.
50th Dist. Polling Results over last week of the race (Click here) Show that the numbers did not move very much between Busby and Bilbray, but it does show one thing clearly. The district was competitive in that the candidates were never separated by more than 10 points most of the time.
With Bilbray only beating Busby out by some two or three percentage points in pre-voting day polling, this does not support the claim that it is a "heavily Republican District".
Even Michael Barone (one of the best in the country at political analysis) reminds us how the 50th District has been moving towards a purple voting record as opposed to a strong red one.
"Since coastal California trended to the Democrats in the middle 1990s, the district has moved toward, but not yet into, the marginal category. It voted 55 percent to 44 percent for George W. Bush in 2004 and 54 percent to 43 percent for him in 2000." (Click Here for Barone Article)This shows that the district could have been competitive with a good candidate on the Democratic side. Especially since Cunningham, the man replaced in this election, was a disgraced Republican making it harder for Bilbray to convince a slowly centrist leaning electorate to vote for him, another Republican.
And the nation isn't the only one. Here are a few more misreads of the district in the MSM:
“It was a strong showing by a Democrat in a district described by Congressional Quarterly just last year as a 'steadily growing GOP stronghold.''"(San Francisco Chronicle)So much for the conventional wisdom all of which ignored the actual voting trends in the district since the 1990s."His opponent, who campaigned against the alleged Republican culture of corruption, has insisted all along that regardless of the outcome, she has shown the nation that a Democrat can make a strong showing in what's considered a "safe" Republican district. " (CNSNews.com)
"… Tuesday in solidly-Republican San Diego, where Bilbray secured nearly 50 percent of the vote and Busby trailed at just over 45."(Thehill.com)
"A Republican former congressman slipped to victory in a special election here Tuesday, staving off what would have been a highly embarrassing Democratic victory in a solidly Republican district."(New York Times)
But, any look at the actual totals that even Bilbray won with shows a much more evenly divided district than can be claimed with the sobriquet "strongly Republican"! With Bilbray at 49% and Busby at 47%, that hardly justifies the claim that the 50th district is "strongly Republican".
In any case, it is obvious that the Dems are not making much headway with this mantra of the "GOP culture of corruption" if they cannot pick up a seat in a district that is trending toward centrist voting where the past Republican occupant of that seat was sent to jail for corruption!
Seriously, they did.
I don't care if it was exactly 50% plus one. There's a Republican in the seat and the liberals are dissapointed. Let them brag about close losses all they want. I hope they have tons of close losses in November.
There is nothing quite so heartening as to see liberals pat themselves on the back for yet another moral victory
A "terrible defeat" for George Bush?
Either some writer can't get their facts straight or the MSM has found a new (and very tortured) way to spin this GOP victory into a loss.
Weird.
They know their seats are bought and paid for, which is why they feel free to thumb their noses at their base and at the law.
I hope they continue to pat themselves on the back. History shows that liberals tend to believe their own press and get shocked when reality hits them in the face when actual people actually vote.
Rush has been predicting this all along.
So, they explained to their viewers, Bilbray's victory had to be greeted with terrible dread in the bunkered down Bush Whitehouse.
I just flipped over because Fox was talking about one of their favorite missing and presumed murdered hot chicks.
"This morning, CNN reported Bilbray's victory as a terrible defeat for George Bush."
It was. But not for the reasons I suspect CNN was giving.
I remember after the 2002 midterms, Terrence Macauliffe said it was a wake up call for Bush. I never got it..
Otherwise known by 'Rats as 'moral victories'. The more 'moral victories' in November the better.
CNN said that? My word, they're catching on! Now even the Washington Post is diverging from the Rove/DNC line.
I wish I could have seen Rahm Emanuel's (head of the democratic congressional campaign committee) scumbag face trying to BS his way out of this loss. The dems and the Repubs tested themes and issues in this race. The so called "culture of corruption" accusations by the dems failed miserably, and the tough stance on illegal aliens by the Repubs was a resounding success. I think the "culture of corruption accusations failed because voters see both parties as owned by the special interests. Jack Abramoff is not going to hand the dems the House this fall, contrary to Nancy Pelosi's, Harry "Free Tickets" Reid's and Rahm Emanuel's hopes.
I wouldn't let our guard down over this... the vote came in pretty much as I expected, and if the margin for the Congressional race narrowed by 18% in two years, then there was a considerable number of voters who just stayed home.
Personally, I would have liked to see someone else other than Bilbray. He will have to face Busby again this November with a considerably larger fraction of the population voting. If the Dems can make hay out of his alleged connections to Abramoff, depending on what else goes on this fall, this seat could yet be in danger.
That said, it was good to avoid utter catastrophe last night.
You and CNN apparently see the world through the same periscope.
How could it possibly be a defeat?
This particular repeated line is a stupid argument. Ick.
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