Posted on 06/06/2006 10:14:19 AM PDT by SmithL
SACRAMENTO - A record low turnout in today's election could be key to Phil Angelides in his effort to capture the Democratic gubernatorial nomination over rival Steve Westly, experts said Monday.
A Field Poll released today predicts only 34 percent of registered voters are expected to come out to the polls. That would be the lowest turnout in at least 60 years.
Such a scenario could play to the strengths of Angelides, the state treasurer from Sacramento. Angelides has the backing of the state Democratic Party and countless party-affiliated interest groups -- including labor and teachers' groups -- who are expected to help turn out voters with their own get-out-the-vote machinery.
"The conventional wisdom is that not only does Angelides have a stronger ground operation, but because he was endorsed by the party, he'll get the activists," said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, political analyst at the University of Southern California School of Policy, Planning and Development. "And it's the activists who turn out in low-turnout elections."
Westly, the state controller from Atherton, has relied more on his personal fortune, amassed as an early executive at eBay, to get out of his message.
He has spent $35 million of his own money to fund a relentless TV ad campaign that has countered Angelides' support from the Democratic party, organized labor and his friend and mentor, Sacramento developer Angelo Tsakopoulos, who has spent millions to run "independent" TV ads touting Angelides for governor.
Polls show Westly and Angelides in a virtual dead heat, but political observers have said Westly needs to bring in moderate primary voters to win, a less likely scenario with low turnout.
The unusually high number of voters who remained undecided -- 25 percent -- heading into the final weekend is one contributing factor to the low turnout projections. So is the lack of a Republican primary contest at the top of the ticket and the limited number of statewide measures, said Mark DiCamillo, the director of the Field Poll.
"With the high degree of undecideds, some will resolve their conflict by not voting," he said. "So many voters have had a hard time warming up to the candidates, so they may just say 'why should I go out to vote?'"
DiCamillo predicted, however, that in some areas that have contested local races -- like Oakland and San Jose -- turnout will be higher.
"But there aren't that many areas across the state that have contested local races," DiCamillo said, "so it has a very negligible effect on statewide turnout."
Fewer and fewer Californians have been voting in gubernatorial primary elections. Voter participation peaked in the 1978 primary, when 68.9 percent of registered voters turned out. Since then, voters have shown less and less interest, dropping below 50 percent in 1986 -- and staying there. The lowest primary turnout was in 2002, when 34.6 percent of registered voters went to the polls.
The drop coincides with an increasing numbers of voters who decline to state a party affiliation, which has increased to its highest level, at 18.5 percent. And most "decline to state" voters, DiCamillo said, don't vote in primaries.
FYI..On the ground predictions of LOW Dem turnout..
I'm guessing that there will be a low Republican turnout, since there aren't in marquee match-ups. How will that influence the Prop 82 initiative?
Angelides will have that vote wrapped up, cuz, as the story sez, he has the activists.
"Angelides has the backing of the state Democratic Party and countless party-affiliated interest groups -- including labor and teachers' groups -- who are expected to help turn out voters with their own get-out-the-vote machinery."
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Tells me all I need to know about this guy. I hope the other one wins.
No, it's better for the whacky left guy to win... he's boring, far-far-far left, and no match for Arnold.
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