Democrats and Republicans go to the polls to pick their nominees

JUNE 6 - For the most part, millions upon millions of dollars have been spent, the television and radio commercials have been aired, the strategy has been laid out and excuted, the doors have been knocked on, all of the mail has hit voters' households – and subsequently hit the voters' trashcans.

Now, the candidates have little else to do but cross their fingers and continue their get out the vote efforts, hoping that enough of their voters will show up at the polls, and enough of their opponent's voters will stay home.

There are a number of competitive races buried down ballot regardless of where you live: Republican voters in Morris County have a nine-way race for Freeholder and Hunterdon County Republicans will decide a three-way race for County Clerk, for example, but only a small handful of major races have caught the attention of the media and the voters.

"There are just a couple of competitive races," says David Rebovich, Managing Director of the Rider University Institute for New Jersey Politics.

Rebovich lists the Bergen County Republican primary for County Executive, the contest to succeed Rep. Robert Menendez in the Hudson County-based Thirteenth Congressional District, and the statewide Republican contest for U.S. Senate as the key races to watch, but notes that not all of them are considered competitive in the traditional sense of not knowing who wins.

"The question isn't who wins, but whether the members of the party can come together afterwards," he says.

"It's not much of an election, except among insiders," chimes in Ingrid Reed, Director of the Eagleton New Jersey Project at Rutgers University.

Low interest means low turnout, predicts Joe Marbach, Dean of Political Science at Seton Hall University.

"It's not going to be very exciting, and I don't see any major turnout," says Marbach.

When an ideological battle broke out in Bergen County Republican circles, United States Senate candidate Thomas Kean, Jr., son of former Governor Thomas Kean, was caught squarely in the middle.

Conservative Republican John Ginty, a Ridgewood native who strongly supports the Bergen County Republican Organization (BCRO) slate for county offices, became enraged when Kean initially refused to join or endorse the organization's conservative slate.

Faced with the very real possibility that he could win the BCRO line if Kean refused it, Ginty joined the race for the Republican U.S. Senate nomination. Kean eventually accepted the line in Bergen, but Ginty stayed in the race, buoyed by a stronger than expected finish in a Middlesex County Republican Convention.

Aside from Ginty himself, it's hard to find a serious political observer who gives the conservative challenger a realistic chance to win on Tuesday, though many conservatives view a win in relative terms.

"If I win, or even just do better than expected, it just goes to show you the strength of the conservative movement in this state," says Ginty, analyzing the meaning of his own candidacy.

"He might get into the 20% range," says Marbach. "If he gets to 30%, that's a pretty significant chunk – what are all those voters going to do in November?"

"If Ginty gets more than 40,000 votes, it signals that he's captured the imagination of conservative voters and that they're a force to be reckoned with," says Reed. She reaches that number by taking a look at the performance of 2002 U.S. Senate candidate John Matheussen, a South Jersey State Senator who also ran on a pro-life platform, but with far more resources.

"If Ginty gets to 25%, Tom Kean is in trouble," predicts State Democratic chairman Joe Cryan. "If Ginty gets 30%, Tom Kean is going to have a real bad summer."

Those keeping an eye on the race are all but giving their quiet approval to the way both the Kean and Ginty campaigns handled themselves throughout the campaign.

Rebovich praised Ginty for making the most of his extremely limited money – the conservative only raised $25,000 through May 17th.

"Of course, he's running his ads on NJ 101.5," says Rebovich. "He's running it in the right venue, demonstrating his support of conservative issues."

Marbach, meanwhile, gave the Kean campaign high marks for the way he handled the Primary campaign – basically by ignoring the Primary all together.

"I think Kean just played it as the classic front runner," says Marbach. "He won't debate or give (Ginty) legitimacy. That's exactly what he should have done."

Even just hours before the polls opened, the Kean campaign continued to downplay the challenge, though it is mobilizing volunteers across the state to make phone calls and knock on doors through until polls close.

"We feel very good heading into tomorrow," says Kean spokeswoman Jill Hazelbaker. "But let's not kid ourselves, we're 100% looking forward to the General Election."

While Kean's Primary opponent "insists he has a good shot," the conservative data analyst is hedging his bets a bit, explaining that pundits shouldn't read too much into his backers should he come short tomorrow.

"If I do worse than expected, I don't think it reflects poorly on the conservative movement," Ginty adds. "It's merely a factor of my late start and lack of fundraising."

The Bergen County Republican feud that proved to be a stumbling block for Kean's campaign has not quieted down since, with incumbent County Clerk Kathleen Donovan mounting an aggressive off-the-line challenge to former Freeholder Todd Caliguire, who carries the endorsement and shares the line of the once-powerful Bergen County Republican Organization (BCRO).

In many cases, failing to capture the organizational line is the death knell for a Primary Election candidate. In this case, however, Donovan has outraised her opponent by ten-to-one, won the endorsement of a number of prominent Republican allies in the County, and is cashing in on her name recognition to battle the inherent advantage Caliguire will have sharing a column with Senate candidate Tom Kean, Jr.

"She's been able to garner a pretty full slate," says Marbach, affirming that Donovan has gone well beyond the minimum perception of viability. "This is the one real competitive race in the state."

Others agree – while it's easy to make a safe bet in the other high profile races across the state, this one is a lot trickier to pin down.

"Bergen is a tough call," agrees Republican State Chairman Tom Wilson. "Donovan has much more currency, but Caliguire has the line."

The campaign has been highly negative – or at least the campaign of Todd Caliguire has been – while Donovan has been trying to run a front-runner style positive campaign.

The winner will face a difficult battle against the cash-flush Dennis McNerney in November, and while the Primary race will end at 8PM Tuesday, the scars could last well into the fall.

"I think Bergen Republicans will wind up being very split," says Reed. "That's not a good thing (for November)."

One of the most bitter – and confusing – battles on Tuesday is taking place in the vacant Thirteenth Congressional District, mostly composed of Hudson County, but also taking in parts of Essex, Union, and Middlesex.

It's bitter, because Congressional hopefuls Albio Sires, the former Speaker of the New Jersey Assembly, and Joe Vas, Assemblyman and Mayor of Perth Amboy, have spent a combined $2 million in brutal attacks: Vas has hammered Sires for his past ties to the Republican Party and the Hudson County machine, while Sires has slammed Vas for bailing out a recidivist heroin dealer and pleading for leniency for a pedophile using Assembly stationery.

It's confusing, because the Thirteenth District is actually hosting two primary elections tomorrow: one for the new congressional term starting January 2007, and the unexpired term of Robert Menendez consisting of the last two months of 2006. The two elections have completely different slates of candidates, as only Sires has filed for both elections. The former Speaker and West New York Mayor will face off against Vas for the full term, and against former Republican James Geron in the Special Election for the two month unexpired term.

"I don't know if they're even going to know what they're voting on," says Marbach of the race. "If they're really confused, they might even vote for Vas in the one race and for Sires in the other."

But most pundits call Vas a longshot at best – Sires holds most of the cards, including the most money and the organizational lines in Hudson, Essex, and Union Counties.

"Normally, conventional wisdom is that if you have county organization support, you'll prevail," says Rebovich. "If that's the case, Albio will win."

Confusing to the pundits, however, is exactly why Vas has put so much on the line in a race that is an uphill battle to say the least.

"People have asked me what was Vas's strategy here, whether he was in this to raise name recognition for a State Senate run," said Reed. "I just don't have a good answer to that question."

In the race, Vas has placed a lot of emphasis on fighting the party bosses – "at times we have to stand up, sometimes even to our own party," he says – but in a district centered around Hudson County, that may not be the best strategy, or so says Rebovich.

"These are voters who have lived with the machine for decades, and for the most part, they like the machine," says Rebovich. "It's hard to be a Mets fan in the Bronx."

Just about any scenario where Vas wins seems to include the powerful Hudson County machine stumbling, and even the Republicans don't think that's in the cards for this Tuesday.

"I suspect you won't be finding many people mowing the lawn in Hudson County tomorrow – they'll all be busy turning out the vote for Sires," says Wilson.

In addition to the more high profile races, there are a number of other contested primaries throughout the state that will be decided by the voters.

In the Fifth Congressional District, sweeping across Warren, Sussex, Passaic, and Bergen, both Republicans and Democrats will have a choice at the ballot box. Michael Cino, who is running on a 'Republican for Lower Gasoline Prices' ticket, is challenging Incumbent Rep. Scott Garrett. Democratic frontrunner and party-endorsed candidate Paul Aronsohn, meanwhile, is facing off against liberal activist Camille Abate.

In the sprawling Second Congressional District, which includes parts of Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, and Salem Counties, the organizational Democratic candidate Viola Thomas-Hughes, the former Mayor of Fairfield Township, will face off against Henry David Marcus, who has held various low-level offices in the state of Connecticut. The winner will face off against Rep. Frank LoBiondo in November.

In Essex County, voters in the 28th State Legislative District will choose a successor to deceased Assemblyman Donald Tucker. The first choice of the Essex County Democratic Party, Evelyn Williams, was arrested for shoplifting in December of 2005. The new standard bearer for Democrats, Assemblywoman Oadline Truitt, will face off against Newark Board of Education member Anton Wheeler for the remainder of the Tucker's term. ________________________________________

I wish you and Ginty all the support and help Divine Providence can provide.

Its really scarly how someone like Kean Jr. can come slithering out the shadows and oooze so rapidly from State Assembly, to State Senate and now, almost to U.S. Senate with hardly any trackrecord of accomplishments other than carrying his father's misbegotten genes.

His literature and actions recently as well as his record of introduced bills - ( see http://www.njleg.state.nj.us/ )

leave no doubt where this fellow's political leanings are -with the herd of RINOs which have plagued the Bush II years.

The media around here was a big part of the swiftness of Kean's rise, besides being the son of a former governor. The MSM was pushing a Kean vrs. Menendez showdown from day one, and when Ginty entered the race, they would actively dismiss him as having no chance.

It's a move right out of Goebbel's play book. Lie enough times and people will begin to believe it, and the bigger the lie, the more believable it will be. They have effectively took Ginty out of the race by this tactic, essentially securing the RINO support for Kean.

Ginty has been rallying these last few weeks very aggressively, and there are a surprising large number of conservatives in NJ, and we are the ones that ALWAYS go out and vote. Hopefully the moderates and RINOs will stay home today, feeling secure in their perceived victory, and will wake up to a shock tomorrow morning.

You are right about the media.

They want the voters to be able to choose one from column "A" or one from Column "A".

They are doing the same thing nationally.

People like Tancredo, Pence, Kyle, Allen, etc. get NO coverage - NADA. They are freezing them out while giving a lot of coverage to their "stars" like Graham, McCain, Giuliani, etc. (Maybe that's why Rice hasn't declared any interest in running. If she ever did, we would think we had no Secretary of State - she would become a "non-person".)

The media is controlled by Democrats or worse. And the candidates they support are no better than they are.

Its unfortunate Ginty didn't get more coverage. Kean Jr. Like his pompous, RINO father, is bad news for ANYBODY who wants a choice in political theories. Tom Kean Senior, aside from the party label, was no better than a Demcrat.

Democrats and Republicans go to the polls to pick their nominees

Of course if it looks like the demo nominee will lose two weeks before the election, they'll just change horses regardless of what the law says (and New Jersey voters will continue to elect candidates of the lawless democrat party).

You have a good memory.

That was when they flimflammed a crook - Toricelli - for a corpse - Lautenberg - who had been in office so long in the past that the schlemiels in New Jersey thought they were voting for an incumbent.

That maneuver completely blunted the thrust of the Republican candidate's campaign - Schundler - a decent man and a genuine moderate - not a RINO - whom the Jersey press painted as some raving atavistic right wing fanatic (not too many of those left in New Jersey since I moved out!).

Rumor had it that liberal RINO bird-brain (thank you for that adjective for her, Ann Coulter!!) Chrissie Whitman's appointment as Chief Justice, midget Deborah Poritz, needed Democrat support to get permanent tenure after seven years, to the New Jersey State Supreme Court, and so she influenced the decision "reading" the State constitution to allow such a flimflam (or was it when the Poritz Court allowed the Democrat administration "just one time" to disregard the State Constitution which mandates a balanced budget - or was it when Poritz's Court sided with the Dems in a Gerrymander case involving redistricting? (Its so hard to keep up with New Jersey politics - its easier to follow the Sopranos - and they actually make more sense than most New Jersey Politicians.)

"If they want to be like libs, why don't they just join the Rat party?"

I think its mainly a fiscal issue.

RINOs tend to be VERY wealthy - like John McCain, Tom Kean, Whitman, Rockefeller, etc. They want to protect their money from government taxes and don't like rubbing shoulders with neo-Bolsheviks. So they call themselves Republicans, hope nobody notices, and vote and act like liberals on social issues, while protecting their lucre from the taxman by keeping taxes low.

Maybe if they talked to Ted Kennedy and Algore, they might learn how to protect their riches while still voting for taxes for the poor schlubs like us. But Ted is probably never sober enough for an intelligent conversation (and his tax attorney probably does the real thinking in this arena anyway) and Algore is only interested in discussing lock-boxes and greenhouse gases and how he "really won" the election in 2000 right now.

That analysis makes sense to me too.

I have always viewed the Republican Party as a repository of "conservative", i.e. traditional American values as established by the Founding Fathers and carried through the last major Wars WW1 and WW2, although signs of the erosion of these values began in WW2.

These RINOs have no "traditional values". They are wealthy opportunists whose sole goal is protecting the source of the wealth and the Country comes a far distant second.

The economic mess we are in is the product of both RINOs like Bush I and liberal Dems like Clinton.

Although things appear pretty good right now, I think the U.S. is operating on credit. What do we really export? What do we import?

It seems as though most everything today is made overseas in Red China. A lot of "service jobs" have been "outsourced" to places like India. Low wage jobs and jobs in the trades are being taken over by illegal aliens.

Yet we continue to spend money overseas on consumer goods, energy resources, etc.

We import handguns for the police from Germany and Italy and shotguns and rifles from Japan. The American automobile industry is on the ropes because they can't seem to produce a competitive product. I don't even think we build ships anymore.

What WILL happen when the inevitable conflict between militant Islam and their supporters like the Russians and Chinese breaks out? Where are our allies? Where will get our war material??

America is in a dangerous strait and the Democrats and RINOs put it there.

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