Hillary Can't Beat 50% Against Allen or Romney

Quinnipiac University ^ | June 5, 2006 | Peter Brown

[RWR8189]

If Hillary Clinton is such a shoe-in for her party's 2008 presidential nomination, then a new Florida poll is something for Democrats to worry about.

More than 30 months before the 2008 election, Sen. Clinton can't get more than 50 percent of the vote when matched against two unknown Republican candidates?

And, given Florida's key role in the Electoral College, the new survey will almost certainly provide more fodder for one of the most popular parlor games in New York and Washington, D.C. these days - "Can Hillary Win?"

That's because there is almost a consensus developing among many of the Democrats who spend their waking hours thinking about the next election that she is very likely to be their 2008 presidential nominee.

Many Democrats are happy about this -- especially feminists and, except for the really left-wing types who think she doesn't genuflect to their causes enough -- party liberals.

But among those who see themselves as Democratic centrists, especially with roots in the Sun Belt, there is worry her candidacy might be as unsuccessful in November as were those of George McGovern, Walter Mondale and Michael Dukakis.

Even though Sen. Clinton has sought to recast herself as a political moderate, the former first lady still has a serious problem in "red state' America," as the new poll results show.

Florida is the most important "red state" and probably the most likely one in the Sun Belt for a Democrat to win in a successful presidential campaign. Remember, Bill Clinton carried it in 1996, and Al Gore essentially tied it in 2000.

A number of public opinion polls have tested Sen. Clinton's strength, both nationally and in some states, against former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Sen. John McCain of Arizona. They are the two potential candidates who lead Republican trial heats, and she generally trails both of them.

Both Giuliani and McCain, like the former first lady, enjoy almost universal name recognition. The results of the polls pitting them against each other reflect public opinion based on roughly equal knowledge of the candidates.

In Quinnipiac University's May Florida survey, for instance, McCain led her 48-42 percent and Giuliani was ahead 49-42 percent.

But neither man's record reflects the views and values of the GOP conservative base, which generally holds sway over the presidential nominating contest.

However, Quinnipiac also matched up Sen. Clinton against two other 2008 potential Republican presidential aspirants, Sen. George Allen of Virginia and Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts. She defeated Allen 46-40 in a survey taken in April and Romney 50-39 percent in a May poll.

Both Romney and Allen are little known outside their own states, and the survey question that asked voters to decide between them and Sen. Clinton supplied only their party label and current or last office held.

There is an oft-quoted axiom in politics that when a well-known candidate is matched against an unknown in a poll far before an election, the better-known is probably at or close to their maximum support level.

That's because of the (generally, but not always true) assumption that such trial heats are almost exclusively about the well-known candidate who is unlikely to do better once the opponent gains more visibility.

The significance of Sen. Clinton not getting a majority, even against two unknowns, is in the eye of the beholder.

But Democratic centrists who think she would take the party down with her if she were the nominee will likely give voice to the results.

As for Republicans, it will probably reinforce the belief among most that although Sen. Clinton would rally the Democratic base, she would have difficulty winning a two-candidate general election.

Of course, Sen. Clinton's supporters will accurately point out that she does not need Florida to win the White House. All she has to do is carry the same states John Kerry did in 2004 and add Ohio.

But over the past three presidential elections, the Democratic vote percentage in Ohio has averaged only 2 percent more than in Florida.

That's why this preliminary data about Sen. Clinton's popularity against two relative unknowns matter.

 

Peter A. Brown is assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. He can be reached at peter.brown@quinnipiac.edu

[IamConservative]

IMO, Warner/Byah is the ticket for the Dems that would be very hard to beat. Our hope is they won't make it past the moonbats that vote in the donk primaries.

[Les_Miserables]

put up a conservative...

Yep, you got it. Now if only the GOP can get it.

[Les_Miserables]

and they have the FBI files.

[Les_Miserables]

Think Slick Willie should get a food taster?

[Moby Grape]

I agree she can't be president, oh but I HOPE she is the dem canidate. It is OBVIOUS now that most liberal media is making every attempt to make sure that she is NOT the nominee because they believe she would lose.

The media will back Gore 1st, then Kerry.

[Les_Miserables]

Don't forget Richardson. He is hispanic and one of the more reasonable Democrats.

[surrey]

I think that if Bubba "kicks the bucket" Hil is toast. I suspect that the majority of their "friends" are His friends and probably despise her. They want to be in Bill's circle and tolerate wifey.

[7thson]

I don't believe it. This is just a setup for her to be the female comeback kid.

[R.W.Ratikal]

It's any body's guess. Will she or won't she? Will Hillary Clinton run for president in 08?

I believe she will. She controls the Democrat treasury. She has unlimited money from foreign governments such as the Chinese communists, and from domestic fat-cats. Large corporations also hedge their bets by financially backing both sides.

And, she has something else that no other candidate of either party can match: name recognition.

Many millions of people vote based solely on names they recognize when they get in the voting booth. Hillary Clinton is a household word better known even than Mickey Mouse, Hitler or Michael Jackson.

She has the vote of 99 percent of blacks, all illegal aliens, most Latinos, government employees, unions and their members, trial lawyers, dupes, leftists of all shades, individual and corporate welfare recipients, socialists, and the tombstone vote and other election frauds that will be brought into play for her benefit.

Al Gore's winning of the popular vote in his race with Bush showed us that the nation has turned far enough to the left to elect a dedicated Marxist.

Hillary Clinton's chance has arrived. There will never be a better time for her to go down in history as the first woman president of a superpower. I believe that an ego far smaller than Hillery's will find it too much to resist.

I believe she will run. Will she win? It will be another squeaker.

[George W. Bush]

Unfortunately, Hillary benefits if Bill dies or is sick.

Actually, I think it hurts her. And the White House will not be awarded on sympathy points.

[webstersII]

"put up a conservative...

Yep, you got it. Now if only the GOP can get it."

I disagree with your comment.

There are tons of people even here on FR that don't really want a conservative. Many of them don't really want a smaller gov't, which is the cornerstone of the conservative movement. Oh, they say they want a smaller gov't, but they still like the prescription meds programs for seniors and more social security bennies, they want gov't to outlaw everything that bugs them, from smokers to people driving while talking on cell phones, etc., etc.

So, my point is, there aren't very many true conservatives left out there. One of the reasons that Bush won is because he's not that conservative. If the GOP fields a true conservative then he won't even carry the GOP base.

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the ping!

[Jim Verdolini]

"All she needs is 40 to 44% or so and she will run. They are great campaigners and they could close the gap rapidly."

'They' are not great campaigners...he is. Hillary is dead in any occassion where she does not control the audience and the media.

[Jim Verdolini]

"I don't think anyone's ever got it right as to who will emerge as the front runner two years out with anything other than blind luck. For all the whispers coming from Hilary's camp, it means nothing, not at this time."

This is the argument I use on my wife, who lives in constant fear of shrill Hill. I ask her to remind me of who were the front runners 2 years out of any presidential election. I asked her about President Cuomo and Nominee Dean.

We have not idea who the candidates will be today.

[hosepipe]

[ More than 30 months before the 2008 election, Sen. Clinton can't get more than 50 percent of the vote when matched against two unknown Republican candidates? ]

WHICH Vote?.. The Voter fraud vote plus the illegal and legal alien(insurgent), and the always potent dead vote.. -OR- The Denial Vote..

The MsM, MsP, Hollywood, Oprah, Academic, the American female DITZ's, havn't even started the main propaganda campaign yet...

[Les_Miserables]

Well I disagree with your statement but...If Bush ran today he would not stand a chance in h@ll of winning, he has simply fractured the base too badly and he cannot put Humpty Dumpty back together again and would lose to even a weak Democrat, except the deservedly despised Hitlery. The GOP needs independents and a slice of the minorities to win the POTUS even with the Conservative Base but they simply cannot win without the Conservative base and that base expects some serious adherance to principal, which is more clearly than ever missing in this POTUS. I believe a true conservative will not be allowed to run for president for the fear that you are are right (and I don't believe you are) but we can push some into congress (and push some RINOs out). If the GOP expects to win the POTUS in '08 and the tinfoil hats may think they don't want to, they had d@mn well better put someone up who walks and talks like a conservative at least. In any case they will have little to point to as reasons we should stay with the GOP except the Boogie Man argument and that just ain't gonna fly anymore. My opinion, your mileage may vary.

[grapeape]

Some of it depends on who she runs against but remember that both Gore and Kerry are complete idiots. We all know how despicable these people are. They still got 52 million people to vote for them. Is she can make voting for her FUN then she can make it.

[grapeape]

you said this -"But she is a terrible campaigner in that she comes across as arrogant, incompetent and worst of all, just not likable."

Is this really the issue that the 52 or so million people voted for Gore and Kerry? She has the same appeal that the other two have. IF they can get those people to vote for them then she can.

[grapeape]

Remember that it is still early in game. Your right that she needs 51% in order to be strong BUT she needs that going into the primary not now. A short campaign with 90% of the mainstream media behind her can easily get her 10 points. Then we are off to the races.

[grapeape]

The maninsream media will give her anything she wants. What everyone here needs to learn about the media is that they have centered their whole lives around putting a candidate like her into office. All of their one sided education, social interactions, their excuses to do drugs, their problems with sex.... everything comes down to this.

For you military guys the best analogy for this tactical situation is the Battle of the Bulge. We are overconfident, scattered and busy arguing among ourselves. They will catch us with our pants down. So the questions are: Who will be our engineers to slow down the enemies advance? Who will be our 101 airborne,9th and 10th armored brigades to hold the center? Who will be the Patton to turn the enemies flank?