WADR (LOL), I don't think Dole had a chance. It was "his turn" so he was given the shot without any real feeling by GOP that he would be successful. I think the term is cannon fodder.
It would have been much closer, closer to Bush v Gore with 49.2% and 49.1% -- provided the Perot votes had gone to Dole, which wasn't guaranteed, of course. It shows that without a third party candidate our country was very evenly divided even in 1995.
Dole probably didn't have a chance even with out HRP, but Bush I probably would have won without the Perot. Bush I had disenchanted a lot of people but they would still have voted for him rather than Clinton if Perot hadn't given them an alternative.