Posted on 06/03/2006 7:30:17 AM PDT by Gothmog
Bilbray Hopes To Make Splash On Election Day California’s Primary Election is just days away.
Also on Tuesday’s ballot, one race will be decided -- it is the 50th District short-term special election.
According to a 10News/Survey USA Poll, the race is neck and neck.
Republican Brian Bilbray has with 47 percent of the vote, while Democrat Francine Busby has 45 percent of the vote.
Voter turnout will be key in the winner of the seat once held by Randy “Duke” Cunningham.
With less than a week to go until the election to replace Cunningham, the countdown is on.
In Bilbray’s perfect world, he would easily win the 50th District election.
He would also make time for the beach; something long hours on the campaign have forced him to miss.
“A lot of time surfing a lot of time in the water,” said Bilbray.
But until Tuesday, the beach is a fantasy.
The reality is the former congressman from Imperial Beach is in a dead-heat with Busby.
At times, the campaign attack advertisements have gotten nasty.
Bilbray said in politics, negative ads are a part of the business.
He considers himself a victim, too.
There are allegations he never lived at his registered address in Carlsbad.
He thinks both parties went overboard.
“Oh, absolutely. I wish that the Republican Party had not run the negative ads,” said Bilbray.
But what he makes no apologies for his tough stance on illegal immigration.
He and his staff are counting on voters remembering that on Election Day.
Bilbray’s stance is so tough that he is now at odds with Sen. John McCain, who canceled a meeting between the two.
Bilbray thought McCain was too soft on the illegal immigration issue.
“Being in a tough spot sometimes happens when you are doing the right thing. I think you have to be brave enough to tell your friends that they are wrong,” said Bilbray.
After raising $1 million for his campaign, Bilbray said it is now up to the voters.
Win or lose, he is heading back to the beach, and sometimes that’s political enough.
“It’s much like surfing. You take the wave and then you paddle back out,” said Bilbray.
Busby busted
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1642545/posts
An undercover Minuteman recorded her.
And here's the Survey USA data:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c4c2efa1-cdaa-461f-8c18-733493cb9e2c
Survey USA says:
Turnout Will Decide CA 50 Special Election: In a special election in California's 50th Congressional District today, 6/2/06, 96 hours till polls open, Republican Brian Bilbray and Democrat Francine Busby are locked in a fierce firefight that could go either way, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 448 Likely Voters, conducted exclusively for KGTV-TV San Diego. 4 days until the 6/6/06 Special Election, Republican Bilbray gets 47%, Democrat Busby gets 45%. Bilbray's 2-point advantage is within the poll's margin of sampling error. Voter turnout will decide whether this critical House seat remains in Republican hands, or becomes a Democrat pick-up. Since an identical SurveyUSA KGTV-TV poll released 5/10/06, Bilbray is up 2 points, from 45% to 47%; Busby is unchanged. Bilbray wins 6:1 among Republicans. Busby wins 9:1 among Democrats. Among Independents, Busby had led by 35 points, now leads by 25 points. Bilbray's support among Independents is up from 19% to 31% in past 3 weeks. SurveyUSA's turnout model assumes 49% of Likely Voters are Republican, 34% of likely voters are Democrat, and 17% are Independent. Bilbray leads by 14 points among voters age 65 plus; Busby leads by 20 points among voters younger than 35. The two candidates are effectively tied among voters 35 to 64. Should younger voters, historically unreliable, vote in unexpectedly large numbers: advantage Busby. Should older voters vote in disproportionately large numbers: advantage Bilbray. By SurveyUSA's calculation, 20% of "today's" Likely Voters did not vote in the 4/11/06 Primary. Among these "new" voters, Bilbray leads by 11 points, 49% to 38%. CA's 50th Congressional seat is vacant; Republican Randy "Duke" Cunningham resigned on 11/28/2005. Busby won the Special Primary with 44% of the vote. Bilbray finished second with 15%, 1 point ahead of Republican Eric Roach. 73% of Republican Roach's voters now support Republican Bilbray.
Yep. I did not see that thread, I posted the San Diego Union Tribune article here:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1642794/posts
And think Billbary is going to pull it off. that 26% undecided number in the Dem Primany at the very end like this is bad for her and Prop 82. That means a lot of the undecided will just stay home.
Bellwether.
Go Bilbray!!
In addition, Bilbray's getting the senior vote (dependable on election day) while Busby's getting support from youngsters (undependable).
I passed by some lib blog commenting on this poll. Blogger was disheartened -- 'Why isn't Busby getting more support from young voters' -- Doh! What a moron, anyone with a brain knows youngsters do not vote proportianately.
"Bilbray’s stance is so tough that he is now at odds with Sen. John McCain..."
Most Americans views on illegal immigration are at odds with John McCain.
I think you've got a good point, I think the stats you cited on an immigtation boost would be too high. From my perspective, campaigns are usually won on the margins, which makes the independent/conservative vote the deciding factor. Two of the most important issues for those voters are immigration and congressional ethics.
There is a Minuteman running as an independent. The poll did not test for his support, but reading from the chart at the USA Today web site:
Total respondents
Bilbray 47%
Busby 47%
Other 9%
By Party
Bilbray gets 77% GOP, 9% Dem and 31% independent
Busby gets 13% GOP, 85% Dem and 56% Independent
Other get 10%$ GOP, 5% Dem and 13% independent
IMHO, the Minuteman candidate is syphoning off marginally more of the pro-tough immigration reform independants from Busby, while Busby is attracting more of those independents who care most about congressional corruption. Dems are usually seen by independents as corrupt, (becuae of their long history) so in this race it is making it tighter than it would otherwise be.
But bilbray is also starting to attract more independents, and that is a good sign for him.
This is a joke. Bilbray will win by 10, 55-45.
I hope you are right. Off the top of my head the other day I predicted Bilbray winning with 53%. But I think I'll revise that and be happy with Bilbray 51% over Busby's 46%.
From your keyboard to God's ears.
Those Minutemen are doing God's work.
She cooked herself with the tape telling illegals they can vote. "You don't need papers to help."
Bilbray by 52 45 and the Minuteman gets 3%.
Busby hasn't moved in two polls, and now has made a major gaffe. She's toast.
That strong immigration stand may just be the thing that saves Bilbray's bacon.
Doing calls for Kaloogians phone bank in the open "primary" I had a lot of Republicans state that they were so mad because of Cunninghams actions that they were going to vote for Busby.
Even if immigration is the #1 issue there are a lot of Republicans totally pissed at the Party they are going to "teach them a lesson"!
I thought it would be about 52-48, but then Busby went after the illegal alien vote, and that is going to remind people what the vote is about.
The Marriage Amendment being all over the news today, along with the anti-Christian barbs from Schumer, Reid, et al, I think may be worth at least a point or two for Bilbray.
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