Given that we’ve had a day to revel in the death of an earthly expression of evil, lets put the events into perspective and context to see how this reflects upon the US’s WOT.
The Beginning of the End
The coalition forces have had a special task force of special operations units from all branches of the US service, British, Iraqi and even possibly Israeli Mossad and Jordanian help. Initial successes against AQ in Iraq forced Al Zarqawi to the western areas adjacent to Syria. With the fight continuing to go bad, he chose to return to the Bagdad area to better manage and control attacks against Coalition and Shia targets. To maintain his high profile as the leader of AQ in Iraq, he was forced to move constantly from safehouse to safehouse.
Al Zarqawi’s leadership started to hit the rocks a little over a year ago when Iraqi insurgents who were allied to him, started to oppose the overwhelming number of foreign jihadists coming into Iraq and taking over the campaign. Former Baathists and Sunni leaders were getting the picture that a new Iraqi government was the way to go and the quickest way to get the coalition forces out of the country. It was during the series of elections leading up to today’s Iraqi government that Al Zarqawi began to try to start a Sunni – Shia civil war. While there were many Shia willing to mix it up (Sadr being one of them), the Shia leadership has managed to restrain their populace. Sunni terror leaders soon began to recognize the folly of picking a fight with the Shia, whom severely outnumber them. Civilian tips to Coalition and Iraqi forces began to increase and more and more terrorists were thwarted (captured or killed). Success built upon success and soon intelligence networks were enhanced, providing even more actionable tips and info.
Al Zarqawi didn’t help his cause very much. Beginning with his attacks in Jordan on hotels, including a wedding reception, his Iraqi hosts began to sour even more on him. Eventually, one main jihadist organization actually announced that he was replaced as overall commander. Whether this was an internal PR effort to stop the increasing friction between indigenous Iraqi insurgents and AQ is not sure. What is certain is that he lost a lot of support by the populace and intelligence tips increased substantially. This wealth of intel permitted the special operations forces to begin to tighten the net around Al Zarqawi.
After a period of laying low, Al Zarqawi began to send out public messages again, via audio and video tapes and written media. These seemed to be in conjunction with increased messages from OBL and Ayman al-Zawahri. It seems that it was also during this time frame that Al Zarqawi began to move his operations back into the Bagdad area from the western proviences.
Over the past 6 – 8 months, special operations forces continued to close in. During this time period many senior AQ-Iraq leaders were captured and killed. Intelligence was also obtained from the raids of safehouses which permitted further targeting and tracking of individuals close to Al Zarqawi. With the loss of experienced lieutenants, those selected to replace them were more careless and brutial. With the slaying of innocents in marketplaces, hijacking of school buses and murder of children, public support vaporized for Al Zarqawi and other foreign jihadists, increasing actionable intelligence.
End Game
Al Zarqawi worked repaint himself as the public leader of the insurgency in Iraq. This effort was apparently supported by OBL himself, who declared that Al Zarqawi was a ‘prince’ of AQ. The attacks against the Shia increased significantly and more directly. Al Zarqawi was suspected of being behind the attack on the Shia shrine earlier this year.
In a remarkably prophetic observation, the following was posted Wednesday, June 7th at Strategypage.com:
June 7, 2006: The relationship between terrorist leader Abu Musab al Zarqawi and and the mainline al Qaeda leadership continues to deteriorate. Zarqawi's recent audio messages have not only attacked the U.S. and the Shia-dominated government in Iraq, but also Iran. He's even claiming that the U.S., Iran, and Shia in general, are in cahoots to destroy Islam. He has also called for continued attacks against Shia.
Except for his verbal attacks on the U.S. and the Iraqi government, he is almost totally distanced himself from the central leadership. Other al Qaeda leaders have been trying to down play anti-Iranian and anti-Shia rhetoric, and have been strongly discouraging attacks on civilians.
Given that Zarqawi has become a loose cannon and that his actions are handicapping Al Qaeda's efforts, it seems reasonable to expect that an accident may befall him at some point in the near future. If handled right it can be made to look like he went out in a blaze of glory fighting American troops or that he was foully murdered. Either way, al Qaeda gets rid of a problem and gains another "martyr."
Initial press releases from Iraq indicated that intelligence leading to Thursday’s event came from within Al Zarqawi’s organization. This may be part of the final targeting. However, additional targeting information apparently came from Jordan through the interception of communications between Al Zarqawi and family in Jordan. Additionally, intelligence was tracking his spiritual mentor who’s movements further confirmed Al Zarqawi’s location. Intelligence was converging and late Wednesday, June 8th, Al Zarqawi was physically observed entering the safe house is Baqouba is 35 miles northeast of Baghdad.
The Strike
News reports have made it clear that with the 100% confirmation of Al Zarqawi’s presence in the safe house (aka ALPHA WHISKEY ROMEO – Allah’s waiting room), two F-16s dropped 500 lb bombs. Current news reports relate that Al Zarqawi was still alive when Coalition troops reached the building, but died shortly thereafter. We can rest assured that Al Zarqawi did not die a quick, painless death. Death was likely the result of over pressure caused by the explosion. Normal air pressure is 17 lbs per square inch, a bomb generates thousands of times that. As the pressure wave hit Al Zarqawi, two main body cavities were affected – the lungs and sinuses. The chest collapsed on the lungs, essentially ripping them from the arteries feeding blood to and from the heart. The sinuses too collapsed, resulting in the swelling of the face. Starved of oxygenated blood and bleeding to death internally, Al Zarqawi could only lay and wait.
After mumbling something indistinguishable and short, he tried one last time to try to get away by rolling off the stretcher. However, his time ran out and he died a short time thereafter.
Follow Through
Coalition forces have conducted 39 raids late Thursday and early Friday based on information gleaned from searches in the hours after Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's death. These raids were reported targeted the many lieutenants and leaders that were being tracked in an effort to ultimately locate al-Zarqawi's. These raids are providing a treasure trove of intelligence that will permit even more specific strikes against AQ in Iraq.
Aftermath and Future
Friday, Al-Jazeera network broadcast a video by al-Qaida No. 2 Ayman al-Zawahri. The tape apparently was made before the announcement Zawahri states “ God bless the prophet of Islam in Iraq, the persistent hero of Islam, the Holy Warrior Abu Musab al-Zarqawi".
The death of Al Zarqawi will have a complex effect on the insurgency in Iraq. He was increasingly being pushed out of the leadership and scorned by the locals. As a figure head, he was great for recruiting jihadists and is already considered a martyr by Hamas and Palestinians. Replacement by someone with similar charisma, expertise and experience will be difficult.
Therefore, direct impacts will be to a degree minimal. However, it is the intelligence bounty seized in the aftermath that is already ripping apart the internals of AQ-Iraq. This will severely cripple AQ’s future operations as leaders and cells have to go to ground to avoid detection and capture/death while they regroup.
Short term violence will spike as revenge attacks take place. However, these will lack coordination, OPSEC and focused targeting, exposing more of AQ infrastructure. Filling this void will be the Iraqi nationalist insurgents. However, they continue to be more inclined to begin to work with the government, especially since it appears that the Sunni, Shia and Kurd elements are working together. Talks have been in progress with some of these insurgent groups already.
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