Posted on 06/01/2006 8:10:31 AM PDT by Grampa Dave
Gold ready to crash? Commentary: The problem with precious metals By Jesse Czelusta, Index Rx Last Update: 8:01 AM ET Jun 1, 2006
Jesse Czelusta serves as a technical advisor to the Index Rx investment letter, which is edited by his father, Lawrence Czelusta, and is a PhD candidate in economics at Stanford University. (indexrx.com) SAN ANTONIO, Texas (MarketWatch) --
Despite the recent pullback, gold and silver are very much in fashion. The fact that history has witnessed recurring periods of Au and Ag mania is evidence that Mr. Barnum's estimate of the birth rate is merely a lower bound.
Just listen to the din coming from the circus touts, ringleaders, and big top patrons themselves:
"Silver at $40 an ounce! Invest now, don't miss out!" screams the latest get-rich-quick pamphlet to litter my desk.
"Gold at $2,000?" queries the headline on one of my favorite on-line investing sites.
"Gold is the best investment that a housewife can make," I was recently informed by a member of said caste.
Indeed, the past few years have generated a frenzy of speculation in precious metals investments. But a broad-based fall in precious metals prices, if not imminent, is at least inevitable. Any interest in precious metals (as distinct from mining companies' stocks, which are better long-term investments but subject to their own set of limitations) as anything other than a disaster hedge, a short-term gamble, or jewelry is grossly misdirected.
Contrary to popular belief, long-run demand is not growing more quickly than supply.
Imagine that in the year 1900 your great-great grandfather had listened to the advice of someone touting precious metals. How would his investment have looked one hundred years later?
Not so great. At the start of the year 2000, prices for gold and silver in real terms were about the same as they were one hundred years before (see charts). Demand (largely from industry) has increased, but supply has on average kept up.
World mine production today is almost 25 times as high as it was in 1850 (again, see figures). New discoveries and technologies have allowed gold and silver production to continue to expand.
But won't these new sources of supply dry up sooner rather than later? Doubtful.
Supplies are coming not only from countries that are relative newcomers to precious metals production, but also from countries and regions that have long been mining gold and silver.
The U.S. mines more gold today than it did at the height of the Gold Rush in 1853. Gold and silver production in Australia, Peru, Mexico, Brazil, and so on -- countries with long histories of mine production -- are stronger than ever.
The proximate lesson of history for investors is clear: gold bullion is second only to hiding your money under a mattress as one of the worst possible long-term investments. If you are intent upon hopping aboard the gold fever bandwagon, then stick with stocks. Better yet, stick with stock index funds. Funds like DWS Commodity Securities SKSRX or GDX an exchange-traded fund offer investors a way to purchase a diversified basket of commodity company stocks at relatively low cost.
On the other hand, history also tells us with respect to commodities that what goes up will almost certainly come down. If you think the gold fever has run its course, you could instead make a contrary play by shorting streetTRACKS Gold Shares which both track the price of gold bullion. Or you could make a highly aggressive move by purchasing puts on the optionable GDX.
If you do make a foray into commodities, be prepared for the inevitable boom and bust cycles. Commodities (like stocks) are worth only as much as the investment masses think they are. Just because your personal opinion is proven right in the long-run does not preclude the possibility that you will miss out on substantial, sentiment-driven profit opportunities in the meantime.
This is why Index Rx employs a mid-term relative strength model, rather than editorial prescience, to pick funds. Neither of the editors of Index Rx would have recommended precious metals twelve months ago. In fact, we purposefully exclude commodity funds from our portfolios because of their volatility and lack of potential for long-term appreciation.
Yet we've benefited from the run-up in commodities prices (and arguably from the dollar's decline) by investing in international and emerging market funds over this period. Our more aggressive portfolios have accrued large returns over the past year via ETFs like iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEMiShares:MSCI Emerg Mkt VPL ) . Although May's drop was precipitous, this short term decline is vastly outweighed by these ETFs' 12-month gains.
While the final numbers were not yet in as this article went to press, recent market action looks likely to move us away from emerging markets and into developed economies. Funds like iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFAiShares:MSCI EAFE Idx.
Whatever strategy you choose, remember: All that glitters is not gold, even gold itself.
You sold your gold for a piece of paper (diploma)? I'm shocked :^)
Yep, I trust Americans. Sad that you don't. Explains a lot, but sad.
What other currency or medium of exchange had in 2000 anything close to the value it had in 1900? Not U.S. money, certainly, nor even the vaunted Swiss franc.
Yes you are right. No reasonable discussions can be had anymore. At least not with arrogant folks like you who think you know everything, yet have portfolios that are exceeded by second year McDonald's clerks who have just started their 401K's.
Hmmmm...I wonder if "stocks" are speculative & unsustainable too....say Google, Exxon, General Mills?
Gold has been of great demand & value long before the stock market existed and will likely be one of the few items traded in the event of a total collapse of the world economy....except food, water, and energy.
I've never claimed I know everything. I just like to point out the flaws in the statements of goldbugs.
yet have portfolios that are exceeded by second year McDonald's clerks who have just started their 401K's.
McDonald's has clerks? Is that what they called you when you were hired? Are you a hamburger clerk or a french fry clerk? Now that you've been there 2 years, how big is your 401K?
Do you trust Bill and Hillary? Or Al? How about Nancy and Harry?
I love my country, but I think that our leaders will almost always do the WRONG thing anymore. Sadly, that is the machine we have created.
No sacrifice or financial discipline is to be seen from any of them. Or many Americans.
The generation coming up doesn't know the value of the dollar. They do not pay their bills. They just know how to "Promise to Pay".
That, is the truly sad thing.
I trust America. We have been bucking trends of World History for 216+ years and we are still doing it.
Gold is a good investment, but the entire idea that "fiat money" is worthless is ludicrous. Each currency has it's own set of value and at this point in time, bucking World History, the non-gold or silver based U.S. dollar is the most sought form of currency on the planet.
I admire your trust in our current leaders and citizenry.
I do not think of paper money as worthless. I have many thousands of it locked away in a safety deposit box at the bank and several more in a floor safe.
But I cannot stand folks who are so closed minded as to post here with no intention other than bashing someones financial ideas and opinions.
But I hope you are right about our leaders and this country bucking the trends. If any were to do it, it would be us. I am not as confident as you though.
I think if you step back and look at those who frequent these threads you will see that those who advocate heavy investment in gold are dramatic in their insults of everyone who dares questions the value of gold as the primary form of investmnet. Those who advocate a broad portfolio of investments are mocked and called foolish for trusting that "fiat currency".
It's not that gold can't be a good investment, particularly used as a hedge against a time of economic downturn, but it isn't the best investment. Some just cannot stand to hear that though.
That only applies to those extremely infected. Lots of investors have a 10% - 20% position in Gold, Silver, etc. to hedge inflation, and as a counter to stock prices (usually inverse relationship) - to diversify. Sometimes it is profitable, sometimes it isn't. Just like stocks, or bonds.
I have bear funds, stock funds, gold funds, silver funds, US stocks, foreign stocks - etc. I ease out of them when they seem to have matured, and buy into them when they are neglected. It is a discipline that works fine over a cycle.
Gold and Silver have worked extraordinarily well over the past few years. So have Apple (AAPL), Diamond Offshore (DO), and Titanium Metals (TIE), and most of the energy complex. I've been lightening up on my Gold holdings - clearly as have other investors - hence the recent decline after a huge run up. Similarly the other wonderful investments over the past few years have seen sell-offs. I'm getting tempted to get back in at these prices, I've been nibbling, but I'll wait for a sign of a sure turn around (like Time Magazine proclaiming "Gold is Dead!") before committing my full nut.
If you lived on a deserted island you would have no use for money of any kind. But, luckily for you, you don't live on a deserted island.
Only if you are a tax cheat! Otherwise you should declare on schedule D, you capital gain (loss) in the asset.
Lots of high flying stocks (and markets), have dropped 20-30% over the past few weeks - conversely, they have risen 50% since the beginning of the year!
I am not a "Gold Bug". I have less than 5% of my current investment holdings in gold. Closer to 3%. But I do not think folks here, from what I have read, think of it as an investment. They think of it as currency. Currency that will survive serious economic disruptions that *could* happen down the road due to our national debt, inflation, oil prices/possible disruption of oil flow to markets, global tensions and regional conflicts.
Both sides, gold lovers and those who are not, love to mock the other from what I see.
But I appreciate your opinions. You have obviously mastered one of the things most lacking in our country today, courtesy. :)
Total horseshit. It is exactly the other way around. The way it works is, if anyone generally tries to discuss the merits of owning gold, the insults come fast and furious from the anti-gold opinion managers. Any reasonable discussion is only a product of a gold thread that isn't noticed by them. Go back and read the first page of the thread: the article is posted, and immediately the kindergarten crowd shows up to crap in their hands and throw it at the goldbugs. For any one comment you can qualify as an insult by the goldbugs, there are a dozen coming from the other direction.
What about the increase in world $ money production - eh? 100,000 times as high as it was in 1850, maybe? Got a statistic on that?
Savage is an entertainer, and he's entertaining. Too moralistic to be taken seriously. I do enjoy listening, though.
He's severely handicapped by growing up in NYC and then moving to SF. Maybe if he would live in some part of the real USA, he would chill out a bit.
Anyone who calls one of these stocks or markets a guaranteed store of wealth would be wrong.
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