The Republican Crossroads on Immigration

Real Clear Politics ^ | May 30, 2006 | John McIntyre

[kellynla]

This is a critical juncture for the GOP on illegal immigration and how to fashion a comprehensive solution to the broader immigration debate. Republicans are in a position to turn the illegal immigration issue into a significant asset heading into the 2006 elections, but the difficulty will be finessing the issue in a way that does not poison GOP relations with the growing Hispanic community for 2008 and beyond.

It is clear that most in the Washington establishment are living in a bubble when it comes to where the average American is on illegal immigration. This past weekend two beltway icons, David Broder on Meet the Press and Bill Kristol on FOX News Sunday, encapsulated the conventional wisdom by saying President Bush would benefit from passing a comprehensive reform bill. They are wrong - especially if we are talking about any compromise that looks remotely like the Senate bill that passed with 85% Democratic support over the objections of nearly 2/3rd of Senate Republicans. Kristol, Broder and the majority of establishment intelligentsia don't appreciate the political dynamics at play in the broad middle of the country.

There is a quiet rage building among average middle class folks on the illegal immigration issue, and if the Republican leadership doesn't take control of the problem very soon they will allow the more extremist wings of the anti-immigration debate to become the face of the Republican party on immigration. That would be a disaster for GOP hopes to grow their new found majority in the years to come.

[kellynla]

"The surprise that is building politically is how strongly illegal immigration will manifest itself in the fall elections."

[dirtboy]

they will allow the more extremist wings of the anti-immigration debate to become the face of the Republican party on immigration.

Whenever "illegal" is left out of such a statement, it calls into question the veracity of the columnist.

This is not about being anti-immigration - it is about being anti-ILLEGAL-immigration. And not repeating the mistakes of Reagan's amnesty.

[kellynla]

I couldn't agree with you more.

Semper Fi,
Kelly

[kellynla]

ping

[Reaganwuzthebest]

Kristol, Broder and the majority of establishment intelligentsia don't appreciate the political dynamics at play in the broad middle of the country.

Personally I don't think Kristol and Broder represent "intelligentsia" but regardless since they get paid to sit around and do nothing but yap their mouths they might get the hint if Cannon of Utah loses next month. Even then though I'm not sure. Their support for illegal immigration seems to have nothing to do with what anybody else thinks.

[Tzimisce]

Patronizing left wing piece - how typical.

[Old_Mil]

Whenever "illegal" is left out of such a statement, it calls into question the veracity of the columnist.

Excellent observation - this is just an op piece by someone who supports the senate bill trying to prop it up. Ignored by this article is the poll that indicates that 56% of legal Hispanic voters oppose illegal immigrants; in other words the scare tactic that voting for an enforcement only bill will alienate Hispancis is a lie.

I do wonder, however, if we've come to the point in our history where there are more illegal hispanics in American than legal ones, which is why the "voice" of the Hispanic community (what is heard when the MSM sticks microphones in front of illegals) seems to be saying something different than the poll of Hispanic voters.

[nina0113]

There is a quiet rage building among average middle class folks on the illegal immigration issue...

It ain't all that quiet - head down to a blue-collar bar any evening.

[stephenjohnbanker]

""Whenever "illegal" is left out of such a statement, it calls into question the veracity of the columnist.""

and the " growing hispanic community" instead of the ILLEGAL hispanic community.

[ncountylee]

There is a quiet rage building among average middle class folks on the illegal immigration issue...

It ain't all that quiet - head down to a blue-collar bar any evening.

And it ain't all Republicans. Rank and file democrats are also outraged. Walk into a bar near at auto plant and announce that you support the Kennedy/McCain monstrosity and note the love...LOL.

[Regulator]

the Senate bill that passed with 85% Democratic support over the objections of nearly 2/3rd of Senate Republicans

Kinda says it all, right?

If such a bill were a "benefit" to Bush, then what party do he and the RINO front represent?

[OKIEDOC]

Just Say no To Shamnesty

[Iris7]

The received Washington wisdom is that deporting illegal aliens is impossible. If this is true then angering the "Hispanic" vote is political suicide even if it is not so now. Which it is.

In a very rough sort of way "Hispanics" outnumber blacks by two to one at this time. In my Midwestern county there are "motor voter" (at the polls registration) votes cast amounting to 20% of the total votes. The precincts where mysterious new voters appear out of thin air are not traditional Midwestern people, shall we say.

An actual deportation project would require cooperation from legal "browns". If you think this will happen you are living in a dreamworld. Most legals don't want their families killed.

A deportation project would be difficult. The "anyone born in the United States is a citizen" clause in the Fourteenth Amendment would have to be repealed. I can't see how habeas corpus can be preserved. (A round up would violate habeas corpus.) The MSM would have to be cooperative and so would have to be "given an offer they can't refuse".

Deporting twenty or thirty million people is quite a project especially if any attempt is to be made to "separate the sheep from the goats" or to keep the deportees alive. Do the math.

A national ID and internal passport system would be needed with tough enough systems to control counterfeiting. This means dossiers on everyone.

Don't get me wrong. I think that deportation is necessary and therefore be done right now since it will be much harder later. If you want an historical analog to our current situation I suggest the Roman Empire.

[Hugin]

Given that reality, the best course for Republicans is to have the House kill the entire process, with the message that a 2006 redo of the 1986 Simpson-Mazzoli bill is simply unacceptable.

Republicans should understand that if there is a signing ceremony with President Bush, John McCain and Ted Kennedy on a compromise immigration bill that the Washington Post and New York Times praise, the GOP can kiss control of Congress good-bye.

I don't agree with his "solution", but that much of his analisys is true. The House Pubs better get the message.

[Soul Seeker]

The surprise that is building politically is how strongly illegal immigration will manifest itself in the fall elections. Contrary to the early conventional wisdom that the huge immigration rallies would galvanize Congress to pass some kind of "comprehensive reform" along the lines of the Senate bill, the reality is that House Republicans with their enforcement-first approach are poised to reap substantial benefits by killing the Senate's reprise of Simpson-Mazzoli.

It's only a suprise if you were among the ELITE John.

From the Republican standpoint, the core of the argument over the next few weeks (and in this fall's election) needs to be the seriousness of stopping the illegal flow over the border, not about a pathway to citizenship. If Republicans make a pathway to citizenship the primary issue, they are making a serious mistake because this comes across to the Hispanic community as mean-spirited and anti-immigrant.

Except that a large minority of the community stands WITH pro-enforcement/no amnesty forces John. Let me just say right now that someone that didn't have a clue that foreigners invading our streets in an illegal protest under Mexican flags to demand the rights of U.S. citizens would lead to the backlash that surrounds the Senate and the President doesn't have the RIGHT to expect anyone to take his advice seriously. You admit to having been clueless.

Leadership has to be provided by congressional Republicans because President Bush simply does not have credibility on the border enforcement issue.

Neither do you, and if House Republicans support amnesty neither wil they.

Republicans should understand that if there is a signing ceremony with President Bush, John McCain and Ted Kennedy on a compromise immigration bill that the Washington Post and New York Times praise, the GOP can kiss control of Congress good-bye.

You think? If that signing presentation doesn't include Sessions, J.D. and Tancredo I'll guarentee loss of control of Congress.

The illegal immigration issue is poised to be a huge factor in this fall's elections,

No thanks to your efforts. The American people are the ones that have forced this issue to be an elective one rather then one politicians sneak amnesty through in May out of the public's eye by November.

and if Republicans play it right over the next few weeks they could lay the groundwork for turning around their prospects this November.

Sure, they could, but not if they embrace your "comprehensive" proposals. BTW, anyone told you that word has become a running joke?

And if they frame the issue around border security and halting illegality and not a pathway to citizenship, they can do so without hurting their long-term electoral prospects that demand a GOP that is competitive within the Hispanic community.

The GOP is doing just fine with legal Hispanics that resent illegals jumping ahead of their friends and family that have applied to come here legally. they are doing just fine with legal Hispanics that work hard and resent the poor of mexico coming over to steal their jobs or depreciate their property values.

Forget Johnny. Amnesty will be rebutted whether you like it or not, as will strengthened borders be a part of the campaign by the American people. Perhaps you'd be better occupied advising the illegals not to spit on our flag and demand rewards for having done so.

[Defiant]

The "anyone born in the United States is a citizen" clause in the Fourteenth Amendment would have to be repealed. I can't see how habeas corpus can be preserved.

You are leaving out the part that says something to the effect "and subject to the jurisdiction of its laws". This means that someone who comes into the country illegally, without documentation, is not subject to the country's laws, and cannot gain citizenship simply being born here.

All we need to change is a law that grants automatic citizenship, the 14th Amendment does not prevent it. Example: the children of diplomats are not citizens. Why? They are also not subject to our jurisdiction.

So, that part of your post is factually incorrect. As to the rest, I disagree on our ability to deport the illegal aliens. First, take away the vast majority of their jobs, through strict enforcement of employer sanctions. Require checks of SSNs, and take them into custody whenever they are stopped in a traffic stop, etc. Raid the big employers, and send back the ones you catch, hundreds at a time.

Second, take away the benefits. No schools, welfare, medical care. The court decisions forcing us to provide these services, while well-meaning, were flat wrong and unsupported by the Constitution. The courts once again placed their wishes ahead of the country's and legislated their own solution. The current Supreme Court might just decide that the REAL Constitution does not require us to pay for people here illegally. That would help remove another huge portion of those here illegally, as they depopulated our schools and our low income housing.

The message will go out, and we will reduce the numbers significantly. Those that remain, working in the shadows, without their families, might be able to find cash day jobs, but they won't bring the extended family with them, they won't vote illegally in our elections, and they will go back.

[Iris7]

I invite you to look at my #13.

Unfortunately the situation has deteriorated to the point where "traditional" law enforcement is inadequate for the job at hand. At the very least a non-counterfietable national ID system will be needed along with several million ID checks a day. Real time analysis and tracking of the data gathered too, of course.

No matter what is done the future will be quite different from what we have grown up to expect.

[Hugin]

Mass deportation is a straw man constructed by the open borders crowd to justify amnesty. We just need to follow through on the promise of the 87 bill and make it impossible for illegals to work here. First, we need to revamp the Social Security system to elimnate fraud. Americans already have a "dossier" on them. Every couple years you get a statement from SS showing how much you earned in your entire life. So that argument is bogus. However if an employer calls SS to check on a number of an applicant, they are only told whether the number is valid. SS doesn't care how many names may be using the card. Often there dozens of different names employed under the same number. SS cards need to be as hard to duplicate as drivers licenses, and the SS adminstration should actively track down fraud, which should be vigorously prosecuted by the Feds. This should be given the same priority as say the War on Drugs.

And speaking of the WOD, once the above is accomplished, we can start taking some pages from that playbook for enforcement. We can use RICO laws against companies that systematically employ illegals. We should pass asset seizure laws along the lines of those used against drug dealers. If we empower local law enforcement agencies to seize the assets of illegals and their employers, and split the proceeds with the Feds, you will see a huge turnaround on the part of state and local governments. Instead of ignoring the issue, or directing police to never question the immigration status of people arrested, you would see them hop on the enforcement bandwagon. Put those reforms in place along with strict border enforcement, and you don't need mass deportations. People will deport themselves. Of course to make those changes assumes that Republican pols care as much about what their base wants as what business wants. Unfortunately far too many don't.

[Iris7]

Sorry, lad.

My 14th Amendment statement is accurate. A child born within the United States is a citizen by the 14th Amendment. If you try to weasel out of this you will be sued by a million Liberal lawyers. The case law is iron clad.

So, an illegal shows up with his "wife" and "children all born in the USA." The children are citizens unless the government can prove them born in another country. Hospital records? The arrested will maintain the children were delivered at home. Marriage records? The marriage was in Mexico. Are you going to leave the children in the USA and throw their parents out? Throw out the kids too? Against the 14th Amendment.

Whether of not any individual is "illegal" is a court decision where the legal burden of proof is on the government and not the defendant. Every arrest will bring appeals to higher courts, lawsuits, and a squabble with the various "child and family services".

Oh, yes, the governments burden of proof precludes depriving anyone of "social services" without due process, that is, adjudication. There is a lot more stuff than I mention.

As far as what "real Constitution" means, by very long precedent the Constitution is whatever the Federal Government says it is. Marbury was in 1803.

Imagine those income tax protesters claiming the income tax is not legal because the 16th was not constitutionally ratified! Imagine a Federal judge agreeing! Bunch of out of touch with reality morons. Do not let your desires control your understanding of what is real. What you want things to be is not important.

Just to be very clear, I don't like the situation. I think the best available option is to throw those people out.

[Plutarch]

Republicans need to craft a compromise that puts in place a program to shut down the illegal flow, which upon the proven success of dramatically halting illegal immigration will trigger a process that provides a pathway to citizenship for the millions of illegals who have been here for years.

The OBL never sleeps. Let them get anywhere near "crafting" such a compromise, and it will be riddled with loopholes and goodies for illegals. The BOHICA will only be delayed slightly, but BOHICA it will be.