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Trends You Don't Hear About
strategypage.com ^ | May 29, 2006

Posted on 05/29/2006 1:58:28 PM PDT by strategofr

There are a number of trends in Iraq that you hear little, or nothing, about in the mass media. For example;

@ The economy. GDP doubled from 2003 to 2004, and was up double digits in 2005. Inflation and unemployment have both been falling steadily. Yes, the terrorists are still at it, but in the background you will notice all those people going to work, all the new cars and all the new construction. While big companies have stayed away from Iraq, and all those nasty headlines, smaller firms have been more aggressive. Life goes on.

@ Agriculture. For thousands of years, Iraq was a food exporter. But as oil became a larger part of the economy over the past half century, agriculture declined. Now, for the first time in half a century, Iraq is exporting food. Agriculture has come back big time, mainly because many of the regulations government bureaucrats have piled on farmers for decades, have been eliminated. A farmer can now make a lot of money, growing food in the most productive agriculture land in the region.

@ Currency Exchange Rates. The Iraqi currency (the dinar) trades in a narrow range, against the dollar, that is controlled by the Iraqi Central Bank. For the last few years, the exchange range has been around 1,470 dinars to the dollar. But the dinar floats against other local currencies (like the Kuwaiti dinar and the Iranian rial), and has gotten stronger against both of those currencies. That's a big deal, as it means that the Iraqi economy is getting stronger, and people, in and out of, Iraq, have confidence in the Iraqi economy, and currency.

@ U.S. Bases Taken Over by Iraqi Troops. Since last Fall, over fifty U.S. bases have been transferred to Iraqi control. American troops are moving to larger, consolidated, bases out in the countryside. These require fewer troops to defend, and keep U.S. troops out of sight. Iraqi soldiers and police are taking care of security in many areas where American used to do it. This is why you keep hearing reports of plans to pull most American troops out of Iraq in the next 12-18 months.

@ Refugees. Before the U.S. invaded in 2003, it was believed there might be millions of refugees fleeing Iraq. Didn't happen that way. Over a million people (mostly Sunni Arabs) have fled the country, but that is a relatively recent phenomenon, linked to the growing power of the Shia dominated government, and the fear of retribution for decades of atrocities against Kurds and Shia Arabs. More surprising has been the number of refugees returning to Iraq. So far, it's over 1.2 million people, most of the them Kurds and Shia Arabs.

@ Tourism. The holiest shrines in Shia Islam are in southern Iraq, and in the last three years they have seen a growing flood of pilgrims. Over 12 million so far, and increasing as Shia Moslems kept away by Saddam's police state for decades, make long deferred trips. Some stay longer, mainly religion students. For the last three decades, Shia religious scholars and teachers have been fleeing Iraq for places like Iran. But now there are over 12,000 religion students in southern Iraq, attending hundreds of newly established schools. These pilgrims and students spend a lot of money as well, helping to feed economic growth in the south.

@ Media. Iraqi has gone from police state, to media madhouse, in three years. Under Saddam, media was tightly controlled. Since Saddam, hundreds of newspapers, magazines, radio and TV stations have appeared. Talk radio and investigative reporting are all the rage. The gangsters and politicians hate it but, so far, have been unable to stop or control it.

@ Health and Education. More hospitals and schools are open and operating than ever before.

@ Democracy. It's thriving, and contrary to popular opinion, it's not an alien concept in Iraq. From the 1920s to the 1950s, Iraq had democracy. A military dictatorship was established in 1958, in the name of progress, and that was the end of democracy. The Baath Party was going to make things so much better, as long as everyone did what they were told. Iraqis are not stupid, and there are older Iraqis who remember the old democracy. Yes, it may have been ramshackle, but compared to Saddam and all that came after 1958, democracy is a lot more popular these days.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Foreign Affairs; Government; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: goodnews; iran; iraq; progress
Ultimately, the fate of Iraq will be be determined more than anything else by two things: how its army does when the US pulls out, and how much support the US government gives the Iraqi army once we pull out (such as weapons).

On the other hand, the army will have a much greater chance of success if the people support it, and it sounds from this article as if the people would have a lot of reasons to support it.

Whether such popular support can outweigh the force of Iranian subversion, combined with foreign terrorists and Sunni resistance---possibly all manipulated by the Russians to a large extent---is another story.

1 posted on 05/29/2006 1:58:30 PM PDT by strategofr
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To: strategofr
"On the other hand, the army will have a much greater chance of success if the people support it, and it sounds from this article as if the people would have a lot of reasons to support it."
Fully agree with that assesment.
2 posted on 05/29/2006 2:01:47 PM PDT by Marine_Uncle (Honor must be earned)
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To: strategofr
Good post - Another piece of information that we should all pass along to friends, family and co-workers -

The pathetic agenda driven MSM will certainly not -

3 posted on 05/29/2006 2:03:28 PM PDT by SevenMinusOne
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To: strategofr

The more prudent a society, the louder its malcontents attack others happiness.

Their shame will haunt them however. Let us see to it.


4 posted on 05/29/2006 2:11:42 PM PDT by SteveMcKing
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To: strategofr
The economy. GDP doubled from 2003 to 2004,

Why should anyone read past that kind of sloppiness?

5 posted on 05/29/2006 2:12:27 PM PDT by Moonman62 (The issue of whether cheap labor makes America great should have been settled by the Civil War.)
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To: strategofr

Thanx for the post.We definitely won't get this info from the msm.


6 posted on 05/29/2006 2:13:08 PM PDT by Thombo2
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To: Moonman62

Oh, this is about Iraq.


7 posted on 05/29/2006 2:13:33 PM PDT by Moonman62 (The issue of whether cheap labor makes America great should have been settled by the Civil War.)
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To: Moonman62

That's only an increase of one.


8 posted on 05/29/2006 2:22:31 PM PDT by Doctor Stochastic (Vegetabilisch = chaotisch ist der Charakter der Modernen. - Friedrich Schlegel)
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To: Moonman62
- that + this

9 posted on 05/29/2006 2:23:19 PM PDT by I see my hands (_8(|)
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To: Allegra; AliVeritas

Don't let this get out...but there's good news in Iraq...


10 posted on 05/29/2006 2:25:27 PM PDT by SE Mom (God Bless those who serve.)
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To: strategofr


"GDP doubled from 2003 to 2004"

I'll be damned. That really is amazing. In fact, put me in the skeptical camp...


11 posted on 05/29/2006 2:26:15 PM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: strategofr

Shia religious scholars and teachers have been fleeing Iraq for places like Iran. But now there are over 12,000 religion students in southern Iraq, attending hundreds of newly established schools.

Given the history of these religious schools in places like Egypt and Pakistan I can't see that this falls in the good news category.


12 posted on 05/29/2006 2:43:24 PM PDT by saganite (Billions and billions and billions-------and that's just the NASA budget!)
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To: Moonman62; ConservativeDude
Google Iraq GDP. You might be surprised. GDP has been on a wild ride.
13 posted on 05/29/2006 2:51:13 PM PDT by Jacquerie (Democrats soil institutions)
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To: saganite

"Given the history of these religious schools in places like Egypt and Pakistan I can't see that this falls in the good news category."

I had the same thought. However, this is part of the contradiction of trying to bring freedom to Iraq.


14 posted on 05/29/2006 3:04:57 PM PDT by strategofr (H-mentor:"pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it"Hillary's Secret War,Poe,p.198)
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To: strategofr
Inflation and unemployment have both been falling steadily.

Where's the evidence that inflation has fallen?

15 posted on 05/29/2006 3:59:34 PM PDT by aimhigh
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To: SE Mom; AliVeritas
Don't let this get out...but there's good news in Iraq...

LOL - don't tell the media! There's a lot more good news, too.

One advantage to having been here so long (about two and a half years) is that I've gotten to see how much it's changed.

A westerner just arriving here might be somewhat put off, but those who have seen how far it has come are the ones who can really attest to the progress.

It's nothing short of amazing, IMO. There's still a way to go, but it keeps progressing in the right direction.

16 posted on 05/29/2006 10:07:17 PM PDT by Allegra (Thread Hijacker Extraordinaire)
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To: Becki; mickie; Dog; Deetes; Gucho; iso; ravingnutter; Straight Vermonter; TexKat

ping


17 posted on 05/31/2006 8:04:29 AM PDT by Wiz
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