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GOP Fears in a Bellwether Race [Of defeat in California 50th District (the Cunningham seat)]
U..S News and World Report ^ | May 29, 2006 | Washington Whispers

Posted on 05/29/2006 11:43:01 AM PDT by Torie

GOP Fears in a Bellwether Race

Staffers from the National Republican Congressional Committee are quietly telling GOP House members to prepare for a possible loss in the June 6 special election to fill the seat of Randy "Duke" Cunningham, now in prison for taking bribes. The Southern California district is heavily Republican, but some GOP insiders believe that Democrat Francine Busby will defeat former GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray and go on to win a full term in November. More alarming some worry that a Bilbray defeat could signal the GOP's loss of control of the House. The NRCC has already pumped $3.1 million into the race. "It is becoming more and more likely," says one GOP strategist, "that Bilbray will squeak out a victory." But another longtime Republican operative isn't so sure. "This is a district we should never lose," he says. "It's the stink of Cunningham, and the Bush problem."

(Excerpt) Read more at usnews.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: 2006; 50th; bilbray; electionushouse; electionushousse; thewritingonthewall
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To: Criminal Number 18F

{result of this is probably going to be the loss mostly of conservative seats... the very guys who fought against this madness.}

In a bad GOP year, the conservatives are usually the ones who take the hit. In 2006, it will interesting to do a body count of conservatives and RINOs taking the fall. If more conservatvies fall, the National Party will push Rudy Guiliani for President.


101 posted on 05/30/2006 8:32:55 AM PDT by Kuksool
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To: AntiGuv; Congressman Billybob

It would have been a lot easier if Taylor just retired.

In 2008, Billybob may get his chance at Congress.


102 posted on 05/30/2006 8:52:54 AM PDT by Kuksool
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To: Torie
Taylor (NC 11th) belongs in the toss-up category, if not lean Democrat. Taylor has a stink of his own, independent of Cunningham, but for similar reasons. The District votes solidly conservative, but the Democrat, Heath Shuler (failed quarterback for the Redskins) is claiming to be "a conservative."

NC 11th can easily be held for the Republicans, if Taylor is out of there. See P.S. below.

P.S. New info. My primary is over, but because of legal and ethical problems, the incumbent may withdraw/be forced out. He is also losing in the latest poll (5/28) to the Democrat challenger. I seek to be the replacement nominee. For more information see my website. I still need your help.

Congressman Billybob

Latest article: "Ray Nagin -- 'Good and Hard' "

103 posted on 05/30/2006 11:13:13 AM PDT by Congressman Billybob (www.ArmorforCongress.com)
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To: Torie

For anyone interested, the local newspaper, the North County Times, endorsed Bilbray, so that should help:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1640677/posts


104 posted on 05/30/2006 11:14:52 AM PDT by Gothmog
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To: AntiGuv
Actually, the party self-ID in the NC 11th District in the poll you cited, is bady skewed. By registration, the Democrats have a 2% lead. The District normally votes conservative because of the large number of Zell Miller Democrats, here.

Had the sample been more like the District, the news for the 16-year incumbent would have been even worse.

The Democrat, Shuler, is running as "a conservative." But when you look at his money and his campaign advisors, they are the usual aggregation of unions and leftwing advisors.

P.S. New info. My primary is over, but because of legal and ethical problems, the incumbent may withdraw/be forced out. He is also losing in the latest poll (5/28) to the Democrat challenger. I seek to be the replacement nominee. For more information see my website. I still need your help.

Congressman Billybob

Latest article: "Ray Nagin -- 'Good and Hard' "

105 posted on 05/30/2006 11:21:13 AM PDT by Congressman Billybob (www.ArmorforCongress.com)
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To: AntiGuv
Actually, the party self-ID in the NC 11th District in the poll you cited, is bady skewed. By registration, the Democrats have a 2% lead. The District normally votes conservative because of the large number of Zell Miller Democrats, here.

Had the sample been more like the District, the news for the 16-year incumbent would have been even worse.

The Democrat, Shuler, is running as "a conservative." But when you look at his money and his campaign advisors, they are the usual aggregation of unions and leftwing advisors.

P.S. New info. My primary is over, but because of legal and ethical problems, the incumbent may withdraw/be forced out. He is also losing in the latest poll (5/28) to the Democrat challenger. I seek to be the replacement nominee. For more information see my website. I still need your help.

Congressman Billybob

Latest article: "Ray Nagin -- 'Good and Hard' "

106 posted on 05/30/2006 11:21:46 AM PDT by Congressman Billybob (www.ArmorforCongress.com)
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To: Criminal Number 18F
No, Shuler does not have better name recognition than Taylor, except around Swain County where he led his high school team to two state championships. And Swain is just one of the 14 2/3rds counties that make up the NC 11th District.

Shuler will grow in name recognition and support as the race goes forward. It will get really nasty at the end, typical for the few races in which Taylor has felt threatened. Shuler is a political lightweight by all measurements, but he is set to win unless Taylor is forced out of the race.

P.S. New info. My primary is over, but because of legal and ethical problems, the incumbent may withdraw/be forced out. He is also losing in the latest poll (5/28) to the Democrat challenger. I seek to be the replacement nominee. For more information see my website. I still need your help.

Congressman Billybob

Latest article: "Ray Nagin -- 'Good and Hard' "

107 posted on 05/30/2006 11:29:40 AM PDT by Congressman Billybob (www.ArmorforCongress.com)
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To: everyone

To get back to the subject of this thread: Bilbray/Busby in CA-50 ... Can anyone tell us what sort of grassroots operation each side has? The San Diego County GOP is supposed to have a good volunteer operation. Does it, and is it fully activated in this crucial race?

By the way, I read in today's LA Times that Busby doesn't believe the U.S. should be deciding which countries should and shouldn't have nukes. Presumably, then, she would do nothing about Iran. If you know an undecided or third-party voter, or a disgruntled stay-at-homer, tell them this and add: "Isn't this all you really need to know?"

I will be very, very angry at the RINOs and third-party and stay-at-home pukes if we lose this seat, which could indirectly lose us the House, too.

Time to put up or shut up, patriots.


108 posted on 05/30/2006 12:38:42 PM PDT by California Patriot ("That's not Charlie the Tuna out there. It's Jaws.")
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To: WatchYourself

But consider how obdurate the Senate. "Let's create an amnesty bill because the public's real desire (we know don't we) is that the public 'wants a bill'." This is the non-think of Washington institutionals. They public wants "a bill". The public couldn't possibly have an opinion. That's too hard to fathom. The public will be happy when they have "a bill" because WE, the vaunted and superior public servants in the know, shall proceed to market it in any fashion possible until our poll numbers rise.

Swenetah McWayne & co need to lose at the bawwot box some in order to sober them up. Yet, the good swenatah has done that a lot and there is no effect. Still a vortex of sucking liberalism intent on superiority complex without abatement.

Here is the strategy need of the decade: there are these bozo liberal republicans that screw up everything. They exist as a block in the house of a fairly small number. They are more moveable there than in the senate. But in the senate they are the blob that ingested Brooklyn. If we can figure out how to punish/get rid of/attenuate/truncate/hallucinate/desegregate/mediate/trynotothate/dontok o koko okok . GET RID OF those liberal "power brokers" (as they like to see themselves) then we can finally PASS the conservative agenda that most everybody really wants. But Washingtonianism is a sit-on-your-butt and have-people-come-to-you-is-the-highest-ethic religion. They get that when they are liberal and republican.

What's the solution? Conservative democrats?

Where is the eloquent polemicist when you need her?


109 posted on 07/03/2006 4:58:02 PM PDT by FarRockaway (This despotic gerrymander a greater freedom than what once was?)
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