HOW TO ELECT A CONSERVATIVE SENATE

RodFromGa | May 28, 2006 | RobFromGa

[RobFromGa]

HOW TO ELECT A CONSERVATIVE SENATE

RINOS, and LIBERALS, and BEARS, OH MY!
by RobFromGa

If you look at each state and how it voted in the 2004 election cycle, you can assign a Red, Purple, or Blue category to it. I used anything greater than 52% Bush as Red, 48-52% Bush

was Purple, and anything under 48% as a Blue State.

Then in looking at 2005 and Lifetime ACU ratings (how conservative their voting patterns have been), I assigned the Senators in order from most conservative to least conservative, and

going off of current knowledge of recent voting patterns, I then identified the RINOs:

Liberal RINOs (least conservative first): Chafee, Snowe, Collins
Moderate RINOs (least conservative first): DeWine,Smith(OR),Specter,Coleman,Voinovich,Gregg,McCain*,Graham*,Hagel*

Note: It is very hard to call McCain, Graham and Hagel RINOs from looking at their long-term voting patterns, but for the purposes of this analysis I call them RINOs mainly because that

are bucking the GOP Senate leacership and acting like they are in charge instead of Frist. It is likely that 2008 Presidential politics are playing a big role in their behaviour.

Looking at the state breakdowns:

RED (Conservative) State Opportunities:

There are 25 Red States as of 2004 election. At present, there are:

15 Red States with 2 Conservative Senators: AL,AK,GA,ID,KS,KY,MS,MO,NC,OK,TN,TX,UT,VA,WY
2 Red States with a Conservative and a RINO: AZ, SC
4 Red States that are splitting their vote with one Conservative and one Liberal: IN,LA,MT,SD
1 Red State with a RINO and a Liberal: NE
Remarkably, there are 3 Red states with 2 Liberal Senators: AR,ND,WV

Red State Analysis:
There is a potential for +8 Conservative Senators in just those last 4 states (AR,ND,WV,and NE) and if we got two of four "split" states to throw out their liberal and elect two

Conservatives, we are at +10.

Purple (Moderate) State Opportunities:

There are 12 Purple States as of 2004 election. At present, there are:

0 Purple States with two Conservative Senators
2 Purple States with a Conservative and a RINO: PA,NH
5 Purple States with a Conservative and a Liberal: CO,FL,IA,NV,NM
1 Purple State with 2 RINOs: OH
2 Purple States with a Liberal and a RINO: MN,OR
2 Purple States with two Liberals: MI, WI

Purple State Analysis:
Our best chances to improve in the Purple states is to get rid of the Liberals. There are potentially 11 Liberals who could get run out of office in these states, but in order for a

Conservative to win, we need great candidates. In some cases we will probably have to settle for a Moderate in some of these Purple states. It is also likely that these states will be

trending as either more Blue or Red over time.

Blue (Liberal) State Opportunities:

There are 13 Purple States as of 2004 election. At present, there are:

1 Blue State with 2 RINOs: ME
1 Blue State with a Liberal and a RINO: RI
11 Blue States with 2 Liberal Senators: CA,CT,DE,HI,IL,MD,MA,NJ,NY,VT,WA

Blue State Analysis: Our three most liberal RINOs are all from these blue states, and the chances of electing a true Conservative are slim to none at present. If we want more RINOs, then we could potentially

swap RINOs for liberals in some races. This will tend to be the celebrity or otherwise well-known, well-funded candidate (ala Arnold) or if there is some other local issue (like scandal).

We should not spend too much time and effort on the Blue States, when there is so much potential to improve still in the Red and Purple States.

OVERALL ANALYSIS: If we get 2 Conservatives from each Red State, and at least one Conservative from each Purple state, we are at 62 true Conservative Senators, enough to do what needs to be done to enact Conservative legislation.

HOW DO WE GET THERE FROM HERE?

In the 2006 election cycle, we have

TAKEOVER OPPORTUNITIES:
DEMOCRATS IN RED STATES: Byrd(WV), Conrad(ND), Nelson(NE)
DEMOCRATS IN PURPLE STATES: Stabenow(MI), Bingaman(NM), Kohl(WI), Open(MN), Nelson(FL)

UPGRADE OPPORTUNITIES:
RINOS IN RED STATES: none
RINOS IN PURPLE STATES: DeWine(OH)

HOLD SITUTATIONS:
CONSERVATIVES IN PURPLE STATES: Ensign(NV), Santorum(PA)

HOLD OR ABANDON?
RINOS IN BLUE STATES: Chafee(RI), Snowe (MI)

In the 2008 election cycle, we have

TAKEOVER OPPORTUNITIES:
DEMOCRATS IN RED STATES: Rockefeller(WV), Johnson(SD), Baucus(MT), Pryor(AR),Landrieu(LA),
DEMOCRATS IN PURPLE STATES: Harkin(IA), Levin(MI)

UPGRADE OPPORTUNITIES:
RINOS IN RED STATES: Graham*(SC), Hagel*(NE),
RINOS IN PURPLE STATES: Coleman(MN), Smith(OR)

HOLD SITUATIONS:
CONSERVATIVES IN PURPLE STATES: Sununu(NH),Domenici(NM),Allard(CO)

HOLD OR ABANDON?:
RINOS IN BLUE STATES: Collins(ME)

In the 2010 election cycle, we have

TAKEOVER OPPORTUNITIES:
DEMOCRATS IN RED STATES: Lincoln(AR), Dorgan(ND), Bayh(IN)
DEMOCRATS IN PURPLE STATES: Wyden(OR), Reid(NV), Feingold(WI), Salazar(CO)

UPGRADE OPPORTUNITIES:
RINOS IN RED STATES: McCain*(AZ)
RINOS IN PURPLE STATES: Specter(PA), Voinovich*(OH), Gregg(NH)

HOLD SITUATIONS:
CONSERVATIVES IN PURPLE STATES: Grassley(IA), Martinez(FL)

HOLD OR ABANDON?
RINOS IN BLUE STATES: none

We need strong candidates and a good grass-roots effort in each of these races where we have an opportunity for a TAKEOVER or an upgrade. Soliciting Freeper comments as to who is

respected enough in each of these states to make this happen.

What conservative candidates have experience in statewide elections in these states, and what will it take to get them to run?

It is too late to do much yet in 2006 but there are HUGE opportunities in 2008 and 2010 that we need to be planning for now...

Soliciting Freeper input.

RobFromGa

[MNJohnnie]

Certainly give us a lot of food for thought. Well done.

I think if a old line Establishment Liberal like Chaffe loses in RI, that will be a serious wake up call to the Party Establishment. Dump Chaffe NOW.

I wish I had better news from MN. While the likely Republican for US Senate, Mark Kennedy, will certainly be far more a Conservative then the current Democrat Mark Dayton, he still is likely to be a pretty establishment Senator if he wins the Seat. He will be a reliably Republican Senator given the proper leadership. A disappointment if lead by the get along/go along who are the current Republican Senate Leaders. I think the key here is WHO is the Senate Leader going to be after Frist?

If we can hold the Senate with more then a 1-2 seat Majority we have a golden opportunity here. With Frist leaving we have a solid shot at a serious Senate Leader for the 1st time. Dole-Lott-Frist were too get along/go along types who would not fight on Conservative principals. Get a solidly Conservative leader, such as Tom Coburn (R-OK) who will use his leadership powers to lead the fight in the Senate for Conservative principals and that would be a HUGE boost to our side.

[RobFromGa]

Get a solidly Conservative leader, such as Tom Coburn (R-OK)

I agree that we need someone tougher than Frist to take on McCain/Graham/Specter.

[BillyBoy]

Excellent anaylsis, though I'd suggest two changes.

First, I'd replace Graham or Gregg with John Warner, he's more of a backstabber who "crosses over" to the Dem side than Graham or Gregg. The latter two might have some freepers foaming at the mouth to get rid of them (mainly due to people who decide how "conservative" someone is based on their fantatical hatred of John McCain and fawning over a candidate's ablity to make folksy, patriotic mom-and-apple-pie speeches), but that doesn't change the fact their Senate record shows they vote the "right" way about 90% of the time.

The American Conservative Union gave "RINO" Graham a 92% conserative rating in 2004, but "conservative" Warner was 20 points lower, having voted conservative 72% of the time.

I'm also guessing Murkowski (AK) and Shelby (AL) voted to the left of Gregg and Graham. IMO, any Republican Senator who can't muster a conservative record at least 80% of the time (4 out of 5 votes) is a "weak sister" and could be replaced with a better candidate. Any Republican from a solid GOP state who can't muster a 80% rating is a squishy RINO who NEEDS to be replaced. No execuse for that.

Second, I'd upgrade ol' Snarlin' Arlen MacSpecter from "moderate" to "liberal", seeing as he couldn't even must a 51% "conserative" rating (his lifetime average is 44% I believe, so this RINO actually votes with the liberals MORE OFTEN than us. The Clinton impeachment revealed that the uber RINO quadrent of Senators was Snowe, Collins, Specter, and Chafee, and everything since then have pretty much proven these jokers can"t even be reliabled upon to vote with us "when it counts", let alone vote with us on big issues.

In short, the conservative movement needs to stop tilting at windmills and whining about the Peter Fitzgerald and Rick Santorums of the world (90% conservatives elected in statse that went Gore/Kerry twice), and instead focus on truly awful RINOs elected in "safe" GOP states and ultra-liberal Dems elected in "safe" GOP states.

The way the U.S. Senate is designed, we SHOULD easily have a 60 seat advantage over the Dems. We don't because the Dems don't run around proclaiming "only DINOs can WIN!!" in Bush states like North Dakota, and the GOP fails to run competative candidates in states they should carry "by default". There are far more hard core Dems in Bush states than hard core Republicans in Kerry states. Tsk, tsk.

[Regulator]

we need someone tougher than Frist to take on McCain/Graham/Specter

[Tribune7]

Nice analysis

[BillyBoy]

Great responce to RobfromGA, I said basically the same thing but you said it much more eloquently. I like the idea of creating a "Club for Life" (social conservative wing) to work with the existing Club for Growth (fiscal conservative wing) to produce conservative victories in the primary.

People seem to forget what "RINO" stands for -- it's Republican In Name Only. Chafee, Specter, Collins, and Snowe are the RINOs who cannot be trusted to support "their" party. Other guys, like Frist and Lott, might be wimpy, spineless "leaders", but there's certainly not RINOs. McCain, Graham, etc., might be backstabbers, but they're not "just like Democrats" unless you can find a pro-life, pro-family, pro-gun, pro-WOT, pork-fightin', tax-cut pushing Dem in the Senate.

Ben Nelson and Mary Laudrieu aren't RINOs -- since when they ever claim to be Republicans?? If anything, alot of Dems would call Nelson a DINO, and there's some truth in that. Some "single issue Dems" are like the Graham haters on this board, calling uber-liberals like Joe Lieberman and Melissa Bean "DINOs" becuase they diagree with them on one issue. If they'd like to lynch Lieberman, Bean, etc., I'd be more than happy to help them do it.

A bunch of idiots on this board kept hurling the "RINO" label at Johnny Iskason because they couldn't get over Herman Cain losing the primary (and I say this as somone who strongly backed Cain in the primary because I was tired of Washington insiders). Isakson is no RINO, and as much as the Zell Miller worshippers hate to admit it, he's to the RIGHT of their hero Zig Zag.

Conservatives should be united behind the Pat Toomey's and Steve Laffey's of the world. They are not only true RINO slayers, but they are also excellent candidates in their own right who had a chance to prove conservatives aren't "unelectable" in Dem states

[AuH2ORepublican]

First of all, DeWine's career ACU score is an 80, while Specter's is a 45. That's something to think about.

Second, the ACU is not the only entity that rates members of Congress; I don't think a complete analysis would exclude ratings by the liberal ADA, AFS (labor) or LCV (environmentalists) or the conservative NTLC (taxes) or Christian Coalition. Michael Barone lists the ratings from the 5 groups I mentioned, along with the ACU and a couple of other organizations whose ratings I don't find quite as useful. What I do is add up the ratings by the 3 liberal groups and subtracted the score from 300 to get a conservative score, then I add up the ratings for the 3 conservative groups, so each Senator can get a maximum of 600 conservative points. For the 108th Congress (2003-2004), I assumed that the NTLC and Christian Coalition scores were the same for both years, since those organizations rate members of Congress over a 2-year period. For 2003-2004, Mike DeWine got 506.5 conservative points, or 84.42% of the possible conservative points; Arlen Specter, despite voting much more conservative than usual because he knew he would face a strong primary challenge from the right, got 435 conservative points, 72.50% of all possible conservative points. Lincoln Chafee got only 45.92% of conservative points, less than Democrat Ben Nelson (49.58%). Norm Coleman got 87.83% of conservative points, a tad higher than North Carolina's Liddy Dole and far outside of the RINO range. The biggest surprise I found was that McCain's move to the left, especially on environmental issues (he got an average of 60 points from the LCV), left him with 69.33% of conservative points, which was actually lower than Specter.

[AuH2ORepublican]

I agree, Johnny Isakson is by no means a RINO; in fact, he's a solid conservative on just about every issue. Isakson is pro-abortion, though, and it's a shame that a socially conservative state like Georgia should have had to settle for someone less than 100% conservative. Herman Cain would have been far, far preferable.

Ben Nelson is a DINO (and I'd love to see him switch to the GOP; if he did, you can bet he would vote to the right of Hagel on most issues), but Landrieu is a liberal who casts a few conservative votes now and again to try to fool Louisianans into thinking she's one of them---hopefully her time will run out in 2008. Lieberman is one of the most liberal Democrats in the Senate, and Bean is also a liberal, and those DU types who think they're DINOs are certifiably insane; same goes for the FReepers who think that Lieberman would make a good GOP Senator.

[RobFromGa]

You make a lot of sense, when I rewrite this I will consider these points carefully. Thanks for the input.

[RobFromGa]

Also very good information, can you put together a list of those you would consider RINOs at the moment, ranked in order?

You mention DeWine as an 80 lifetime, but he had a 56 in 2005, following a 68 in 2004. What is causing his leftward shift?

[PGalt]

Thanks for a plan. Thanks to all contributors. BTTT!

[RavenATB]

I certainly agree with the suggestion that we do everything we can do to "tube" Hagel.

[RavenATB]

Hagel's 2004 ACU rating was far lower, as I suspect it will be again after the ACU updates their numbers to reflect his turncoat votes on immigration reform.

[RobFromGa]

Hagel ACU was 87 in 2004, which is respectable.

[Jim Noble]

I wrote the same analysis, more or less, after 2000.

The problem is that, since then, we have allowed leftist RATs to run and win essentially unopposed in ND, MT, NV, LA, AR.The Dems NEVER let a possible win go without a candidate. The Republicans do this all the time.

Nelson (FL) is one of the most unpopular US Senators, according to a recent survey. There should be several strong candidates trying to take that seat away.

Instead, in a rising red state, there's no one willing to run who can win.

There are serious, serious problems all across the country with candidate development and recruitment.

If the party roles were reversed, the RATs would have 70 Senators. It's pathetic.

[AuH2ORepublican]

The only current Senators that I consider RINOs, together with their "conservative percentage" for 2003-2004, are the following:

1. Lincoln Chafee (RI) 45.92%
2. Olympia Snowe (ME) 49.67%
3. Susan Collins (ME) 61.08%
4. Arlen Specter (PA) 72.50% (pre-primary posturing)

I don't consider McCain a RINO, but he scored worse than Specter during the 108th Congress (69.33%).

As for why DeWine is scoring far worse on the ACU ratings of late, I think it's a combination of (i) the choice of votes by the ACU (there are years in which the ACU emphasizes social issues less than economic or foreign issues, which helps guys like Specter and hurts guys like DeWine) and (ii) an actual leftward shift by DeWine as he has "grown in office." DeWine had an 85 ACU rating in 2003, followed by a 68 in 2004 and a 56 in 2005; hopefully he'll return to the 80s after he is reelected.

[yuleeyahoo]

That ONE issue just happens to be the one that will determine this country's sovereignty and long term security from terrorism. As such it is extremely important. This guy said, while he is running, that he would not support a pathway to citizenship for guest workers,(very conservative) Then he turns around and spearheads the effort to the very opposite. This type of behavior could be called quite a few things and the least of which is RINO.

The other issue is S2239 banning the offshore drilling for oil and natural gas off the shore of Florida. A bill penned by Martinez and co sponsored by Bill Nelson (the Democrat from FL). Castro with the help of CHINA is going to be drilling off our shores. If we are in such an energy crisis, why is Florida exempt from contributing.

I would be interested to know what his rating will be at the end of this year. I think that it will be lower because of these two issues. Mrs. Yuleeyahoo

[lewislynn]

We just need the House to hold fast in the Joint Cmte. and the illegal vote in the Senate will not become law.

The president would have to sign it for it to become law...You must think he'll go along with the Senate bill. If that happens it will be the death knell for the Republican party for sure...They've border line (no pun intended) killed it as it is.

The average Mexican hates Republicans, Mexicans will not be voting Republican no matter what the Republicans do.

Just my opinon on the situation.

[Texasforever]

Bush got 40% of the Hispanic vote in 2004. That is the only so-called "minority" vote that is anywhere near substantial. Many of those Hispanics were recipients of the 1986 amnesty. You can argue that Mexicans hate the GOP BUT that has not stopped many of them from voting for GOP candidates. The sad fact is that given the present demographics, if either party does not get significant Hispanic support they will never win elections in the numbers required to gain a majority. It is far too late for whites to breed our way to the majority. We had damn well better hope that we can keep socially conservative Hispanics under our tent.