Posted on 05/22/2006 5:59:20 PM PDT by RobFromGa
Here are my predictions as of today for the 2006 Senate races. I don't profess to be an expert on each of these races, and there could be some mistakes here. But the way I see it, the GOP currently has 48 safe seats and the Dems/Socialists have 41.
SAFE SEATS (GOP)
AZ- R- Kyl safe
IN- R- Lugar safe
ME- R- Snowe safe (RINO)
MS- R- Lott safe
NV- R- Ensign safe
TX- R- Hutchison safe
UT- R- Hatch safe
WY- R- Thomas safe
GOP: 8 safe + 40 carryovers = 48 minimum
SAFE SEATS (DEMS/INDEPENDENTS)
VT- I- open (Jeffords seat) Sanders likely
CA- D- Feinstein safe
CT- D- Lieberman safe (faces Dem challenger Lamont)
DE- D- Carper safe
FL- D- Nelson safe
HI- D- (Akaka seat) safe
MA- D- Swimmer Kennedy safe
MI- D- Stabenow safe? (GOP Primary Aug 8)
NE- D- Nelson safe
NM- D- Bingaman safe
ND- D- Conrad safe
NY- D- Clinton safe
WV- D- Byrd safe (health?)
WI- D- Kohl safe
14 safe + 27 carryovers = 41 minimum
I see eleven "Contests" at present, ranked below from most likely to least likely for the GOP to take the seat. With TN, VA, and MO we still have a 51 seat majority. With OH and RI, we are at 53, for a net loss of two. (I think -2 Seats is our worst case scenario barring catastrophe)
The tossups I see are MN, MT, and NJ-- with two of three we are at no change, with all three we are at +1. (I think +1 seats is our best case likely scenario)
The CONTESTS according to RobFromGa :
LIKELY GOP
TN- R- open(Frist seat) ? vs. Ford(D) (90% chance GOP)
VA- R- Allen vs. ? (90% chance GOP)
MO- R- Talent vs. McCaskill (80% chance GOP)
PROBABLE GOP
OH- R- DeWine(I) vs. Brown (60% chance GOP)
RI- R- Chafee(I) could lose primary (60% RINO, 0% conservative)
TOSSUPS
MN- D- open (Dayton seat) vs. Kennedy (50% chance GOP)
MT- R- Keenan needs to beat Burns(I) in primary (50% chance GOP)
NJ- D- Menendez(I) vs. Kean (50% chance RINO)
DOUBTFUL GOP
PA- R- Santorum(I) losing to Casey (40% chance GOP)
MD- D- open (Sarbanes seat) vs. Steele (30% chance GOP)
WA- D- Cantwell(I) vs. McGavick (30% chance GOP)
Modest in the House,
227 Republicans 208 Democrats Most likely
Worst Case: 223 Repubs, 212 Dems
Best Possible: 235 Repubs, Dems 200
Still alot of time in 2006
Senate slight losses
53 Republicans, 46 Democrats, 1 Socialist (sick)
Worst Case: 52 Repubs, 47 Democrats + Socialist
Best: 56 Repubs, 43 Dems + Socialist
Don't count Steele out. Common wisdom says he won't get it, but if the trend thats picked up since 2000 of Republicans picking up a few % points of minority voters keeps up, this election won't even be close to a 'dems' '94.
UPDATE ON LAFFEY/CHAFEE PRIMARY--
Press Statement on Rhode Island Poll
THE LAFFEY SURGE: POLL RESULTS SHOW PRO-GROWTH CHALLENGER WOULD DEFEAT ECONOMIC LIBERAL CHAFEE IF RHODE ISLAND PRIMARY WERE HELD TODAY
Washington, D.C. - The Club for Growth, the nation's leading free-market advocacy organization with over 35,000 members, today released a poll showing that Steve Laffey, Rhode Island GOP Senatorial candidate and Mayor of Cranston, has drawn into a statistical dead heat with incumbent Senator Lincoln Chafee in their Republican primary race. According to the polling firm, if the election were held today, it is likely the undecided respondents would break toward Laffey and propel him to victory. Club for Growth President Pat Toomey issued the following statement:
"This polling data shows that Rhode Island Republicans are rallying behind Mayor Steve Laffey and his prosperity agenda," said Club for Growth President Pat Toomey. "Mayor Laffey has pulled even, or slightly ahead of, Senator Chafee despite the barrage of negative attack ads run against Mayor Laffey by Senator Chafee's Senate buddies and the recent huge run of pro-Chafee ads run by the incumbent."
"Senator Chafee's dramatic fall in this race, despite all the ads run for him, explains why he is now resorting to his own harsh, misleading attacks on Mayor Laffey," Toomey continued. "The tremendous sums of money Lincoln Chafee is sinking into his increasingly desperate campaign simply cannot mask his record for higher taxes and wasteful spending."
"Since, according to the polling firm, undecided voters usually break for the challenger instead of the incumbent, the results show that Steve Laffey would likely win the GOP primary in Rhode Island if it were held today."
Is that your own analysis of the House races? I sure hope you are right- I would hate to lose the House.
thanks for the info...
Thanks for the great post!
Obviously, it's very early but I see better chances for Steele and Santorum than the analysis shows. Also, I put Allen in the "safe seat" category. He's a lock, IMO.
I think Kyl will win, but I think it will be a harder race then Allen vs. whoever.
Either way, I'd either have them both safe or both leans, because they are really close in comparability.
Thanks. Good thread. BTTT.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.