Posted on 05/21/2006 12:48:19 PM PDT by ScaniaBoy
As the French government tears itself apart amid a trumped-up corruption scandal, and the socialist opposition fails to capitalise on the chaos, Jean-Marie Le Pen, leader of the far-Right National Front (FN), has gained record levels of support - without saying a word in public.
According to a survey in the news magazine Le Point last week, 22 per cent of the French population has a "favourable opinion" of Mr Le Pen - up five per cent from the previous month.
The rating is far higher than the 16 per cent popularity which Mr Le Pen scored in polls four years ago, just before the presidential elections in which he shocked France by beating the socialist prime minister, Lionel Jospin, in the first round. He lost to Jacques Chirac in the second round and political commentators insisted his success was a blip that would never happen again.
"His ideas have never been so popular," said his daughter and likely successor, Marine. She is "very, very optimistic" about her father's chances in next year's presidential election. "He will be in the second round, the only question is who he will be against," Miss Le Pen said.
"It's a case of people realising that reality is reflecting what we have been saying for the past 30 years. It is also because the political system is caving in on itself."
The swing to the extreme Right has been attributed to a series of events, during a period of economic gloom, that have crippled the government: last autumn's rioting in the suburbs; student violence over a proposed employment law; and now the Clearstream dirty tricks scandal.
Polls have shown the FN relentlessly on the rise since last November's violence in the immigrant ghettos on the outskirts of France's biggest cities. In October, eight per cent of French people said they would vote for Mr Le Pen's party.
By December that had risen to 11 per cent, and by February it was 12 per cent. In March, at the height of the student riots, would-be FN voters increased to 13 per cent and in April they were 14 per cent.
Before 2002, the highest point for the FN, which was created in 1972, was in the mid-1990s, when the party took over six mayoral posts, capitalising on increasing concerns over immigration.
Supporters believe that Mr Le Pen's silence over the Clearstream scandal has helped to distinguish him from the tarnished crowd.
Most critics of the French government have had a field day over the scandal, which has pitted President Chirac and the prime minister, Dominique de Villepin, against Nicolas Sarkozy, the foreign minister - all members of the same right-of-centre party.
But Mr Le Pen has made a point of keeping out of the political mudslinging, telling friends that Clearstream is nothing more than a "sordid masquerade".
"There's no reason for me to attack these people with my little hammer when they're smashing each other up with a road drill," he said privately, according to Le Figaro newspaper.
Both Mr Sarkozy and Mr Chirac have attempted to win over FN supporters, offering increasingly hardline immigration policies.
But Miss Le Pen dismissed Mr Sarkozy's tough new immigration bill, which was passed by the lower house of parliament last week, and his declaration that foreigners in France could either "like it or leave".
She said: "Either he has changed and is convinced by our ideas, in which case why insult us, or he is obsessed with getting into power no matter what. "Personally I believe it is the latter." Pollsters who have been studying voting intentions - separate from popularity ratings - suggest it would be unwise to write off the FN leader in next year's vote.
In April - before the Clearstream scandal - a survey by the Sofres polling company predicted that Mr Le Pen could finish third in the first round of voting for the presidency.
It put him behind Mr Sarkozy and the Socialist contender Ségolène Royal, but ahead of Mr de Villepin.
I think she sounds too much a conventional candidate that will probably support what everyone in the "acceptable" pundit class in France and the rest of Europe promotes. In contrast, Sarkozy sounds like he will try something that hadn't been tried in France for a long time, he will bring some sense into the French political scene and make a lot of "fringe ideas" like markets, competitions, into the mainstream.
Of course, Royal can still surprise us. She may turn out to be another Roger Douglas (which in some sense, "speak like a moderate-left but govern like a conservative" didn't start with New Labour in Britain, but rather, NZ in the Fourth Labour government in 1984) as she could convince her constitutencies that there-is-no-alternative. I will be prepared to read the shocks on the likes of Le Monde or Liberation in that case.
As the mooselims gain clout and the civilized society of france comes apart I predicted that the french would turn increasingly to the party of LePenn.
Should be fun watching the enlightened ones battling in the streets.
Hey frenchy, take a bath and get your woman to shave her armpits and put on some deoderant.
For the average American, yes: Le Pen's positions would not shock any Hillary admirer. For the Europeans, he's as far right as you can get. Le Pen is for a strong but limited state, and he also quite realistically doesn't believe that even if he was elected tomorrow, he could undo 40 years of Muslim immigrations. Except if you were to create some kind of apartheid (and we know how popular it would be), you have no basis to treat French Muslims differently than non-Muslims. The question then becomes: how can you work with a French Muslim minority without keeping sliding down into dhimmitude? Personnaly, I think it would require a long series of miracles. I'm pessimistic for France and for Europe.
As for the allegations of antisemitism, that doesn't hold water, since quite many French Jews vote Le Pen. And for good reasons, since other politicians are just waiting for the imams to take over.
I was actually living in Nice when it elected a National Front mayor. Despite the ravings of the rest of France, we weren't immediately indoctrinated and make to wear distinctive clothing.
And for a brief six months, the streets were clean and agressive pan-handling banned.
Then Paris regained control (mainly by disarming the local police force).
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.