GET WHITEY!
INFIDEL SCUM!
Posted on 05/21/2006 12:48:19 PM PDT by ScaniaBoy
As the French government tears itself apart amid a trumped-up corruption scandal, and the socialist opposition fails to capitalise on the chaos, Jean-Marie Le Pen, leader of the far-Right National Front (FN), has gained record levels of support - without saying a word in public.
According to a survey in the news magazine Le Point last week, 22 per cent of the French population has a "favourable opinion" of Mr Le Pen - up five per cent from the previous month.
The rating is far higher than the 16 per cent popularity which Mr Le Pen scored in polls four years ago, just before the presidential elections in which he shocked France by beating the socialist prime minister, Lionel Jospin, in the first round. He lost to Jacques Chirac in the second round and political commentators insisted his success was a blip that would never happen again.
"His ideas have never been so popular," said his daughter and likely successor, Marine. She is "very, very optimistic" about her father's chances in next year's presidential election. "He will be in the second round, the only question is who he will be against," Miss Le Pen said.
"It's a case of people realising that reality is reflecting what we have been saying for the past 30 years. It is also because the political system is caving in on itself."
The swing to the extreme Right has been attributed to a series of events, during a period of economic gloom, that have crippled the government: last autumn's rioting in the suburbs; student violence over a proposed employment law; and now the Clearstream dirty tricks scandal.
Polls have shown the FN relentlessly on the rise since last November's violence in the immigrant ghettos on the outskirts of France's biggest cities. In October, eight per cent of French people said they would vote for Mr Le Pen's party.
By December that had risen to 11 per cent, and by February it was 12 per cent. In March, at the height of the student riots, would-be FN voters increased to 13 per cent and in April they were 14 per cent.
Before 2002, the highest point for the FN, which was created in 1972, was in the mid-1990s, when the party took over six mayoral posts, capitalising on increasing concerns over immigration.
Supporters believe that Mr Le Pen's silence over the Clearstream scandal has helped to distinguish him from the tarnished crowd.
Most critics of the French government have had a field day over the scandal, which has pitted President Chirac and the prime minister, Dominique de Villepin, against Nicolas Sarkozy, the foreign minister - all members of the same right-of-centre party.
But Mr Le Pen has made a point of keeping out of the political mudslinging, telling friends that Clearstream is nothing more than a "sordid masquerade".
"There's no reason for me to attack these people with my little hammer when they're smashing each other up with a road drill," he said privately, according to Le Figaro newspaper.
Both Mr Sarkozy and Mr Chirac have attempted to win over FN supporters, offering increasingly hardline immigration policies.
But Miss Le Pen dismissed Mr Sarkozy's tough new immigration bill, which was passed by the lower house of parliament last week, and his declaration that foreigners in France could either "like it or leave".
She said: "Either he has changed and is convinced by our ideas, in which case why insult us, or he is obsessed with getting into power no matter what. "Personally I believe it is the latter." Pollsters who have been studying voting intentions - separate from popularity ratings - suggest it would be unwise to write off the FN leader in next year's vote.
In April - before the Clearstream scandal - a survey by the Sofres polling company predicted that Mr Le Pen could finish third in the first round of voting for the presidency.
It put him behind Mr Sarkozy and the Socialist contender Ségolène Royal, but ahead of Mr de Villepin.
In all likelihood the best FN and LePen can hope for is to reach a second round in the upcoming presidential election. In a second round (possibly against the Socialist contender Ségolène Royal) most conservatives will either stay at home or vote for the Socialists - unless the election takes place under exceptional circumstances, such as riots in the suburbs.
Of course if Le Pen should win the EU is dead. There is no way they could treat France like they ttreated Austria. However, as I wrote above, I don't think there are many europhiles who lose sleep over this scenario. Most unlikely.
GET WHITEY!
INFIDEL SCUM!
Remember Le Pen hates the US...
French conservatives aren't american conservatives. Same applies for British, Canadian, and all other brands of conservatism.
Le Pen, I believe, is very anti US and anti Israel.
Really? is there any party in France that isn't attacking the US?
Yes, a win by Le pen would not improve the relationship between France and the US (or Israel).
That is, unfortunately, a possibility. That LePen could siphon enough votes from Sarkozy to push Segolene Royal (who makes Cindy Sheehan sound like a MENSA member) into the run-off.
What is likely to happen is rather that Sarkozy begins to sound more and more like LePen without the overt racism.
My $.02
Yes, I think you are correct. Unless Sarkozy is knifed in the back by Chirac and/or Villepin he is the likely candidate for the Right - and should be able to beat the Far Right in the first round. However, lots of things may happen before then....
I don't think Chirac/De Villepin have any knives left.
Sarkozy quite deftly out-manoevred them in both the Economic Reform process and the Clearstream case.
Neither Chirac nor De Villepin have any support left whatsoever.
Unfortunately, the only pro-Americain (Alain Madelin) stands no chance of getting more than 2% of the vote.
The conservative Philippe Devilliers (Conservative in the American sense) is also in the 2% maximum range.
Given what I know of Sarkozy, at least we can work with him (unlike Chirac with his deGaullian delusions of "French Gloire".
In a twist of irony, I read a news item from a few months ago Le Pen is now actively courting the Islamic voters.
I think a Sarkozy victory would probably be the preferable outcome: not as anti-US as LePen, but still bad news for the Muzzies.
I thought de Villiers was both a conservative and an Atlanticist.
He did well during the referendum campaign on the EU "constitution", but as you say he will probably only garner a couple of percentage points at most.
He could be. I only heard him speak on internal themes (immigration, family values). He is well-liked among the traditional military officer class (which itself is generally pro-American) but he is certainly less capitalist-oriented than Madelin.
She's gorgeous, but a commie.
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