Posted on 05/18/2006 5:44:38 PM PDT by catholicfreeper
HONOLULU -- Rep. Ed Case's senatorial campaign released selected results of one of its polls on Tuesday, which show Case virtually tied with fellow Democrat Sen. Dan Akaka in the race for the U.S. Senate.
It is the first poll to be made public since Case announced he was challenging Akaka in January.
A research firm hired by Case's campaign carried out the poll, and he released only portions of the data.
The poll taken by the Honolulu firm Q-Mark Research and Polling found the race between Akaka and Case is very close four months away from the primary election.
Case's campaign said the survey asked 700 likely voters between April 21 and May 9 who they would vote for if the Senate election was held today.
Forty percent of the respondents said they would vote for Akaka, 38 percent said they would choose Case, while 22 percent either didn't know or refused to answer. The margin of error was 3.7 percent.
"It puts Sen. Akaka in a much weaker position than I think lots of people thought he would be in at this stage, and certainly lots of people thought he would ever be in at the beginning of this campaign," University of Hawaii political science professor Neal Milner said.
"It was reflective of what I've heard from many people throughout Hawaii over the last couple of months as I've gone out there and campaigned," Case said.
The same potential voters were then asked questions highlighting the principal themes of the Case campaign -- about experience, transition, performance and change, and then again asked whom they'd vote for. This time Case came out slightly ahead with 44 percent of the responses compared to Akaka's 39 percent.
Case refused to release the wording of the questions or a breakdown of all the poll's results.
"I'm not going to be providing the further details beyond the result. It's, you know, campaign information, we're in the middle of a campaign and I'm sure it's information that the opposition would love to have as well," Case said.
The Akaka campaign said it has also been polling, but declined to release its results.
"(Case's) poll results indicate we have a contested primary," spokeswoman Elisa Yadao said.
She said the Akaka campaign is "...confident that when people look at Sen. Akaka's record of accomplishments and his position on issues they're going to make the right choice."
It appears that Case is only giving out the poll results that make him look good. For example, he wouldn't tell KITV the results for voters who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary, which is the race they're in. So the results he released include Republican voters, many who will not vote in the Democratic primary in September.
Previous Stories: January 20, 2006: Akaka 'Disappointed' By Case's Run For Senate January 20, 2006: Some Hawaii Democrats Angered By Case's Decision January 20, 2006: Case Will Challenge Akaka For Senate Seat
If Case is elected Senator, he'll be the first haole to hold the job since 70-year old Kansan Oren Long in 1959.
Frankly, I think the only strong candidate we could get to run against him would be Lt Gov Duke Aiona.
Haole's in Hawaii now vote more Dem in Hawaii than Asians do. Isn't that interesting? Hawaii ain't like the mainland.
I've heard that, but it seems odd given the racial makeup of the GOP elected officials in Hawaii. The only way to explain it is if Asians are more willing to vote for haole Republicans and haoles similarly more willing to vote for Asian/Native Hawaiian Democrats. Did Lingle get a majority of the haole vote ?
Well I hope the RNC is watch developments there. Case's poll might be BS but it might be worth a little money if the Republican Senatorial committee spent a little money on some polling of their own. I have no idea how expensive a race is in Hawaii but its not too late in the game to get someone in if they have a chance.
The reason Ed will win is that he's a DINO. My dad is a lifetime hardcore republican who has lived in Hawaii since 1959. He's told me that he will gladly vote for Case and that really blew me away. I think many republicans of Hawaii know that Case is their only chance to get a senator who will move away from the left more towards the right and put Akaka out to pasture where that useless tool belongs.
Duke Aiona could be our Native Hawaiian Michael Steele.
I just started watching that show this week.
Ed Case and Neil Abercrombie's ACU rating in 2005 was absolutely identical... 12%. Akaka scored an 8%. If Case were scoring near 50%, then you could call him a DINO, but he's as far on the left as the bulk of the 'Rats are. Interesting how Case has some people "hosed."
Bush Kerry
White (42%) 42% n/a 58%
African-American (1%) * n/a *
Latino (10%) 46% n/a 54%
Asian (26%) 48% 13 52%
Other (22%) 52% 18 48%
I didn't realize Whites were 42% of the electorate.
"Other" would be what my ex-fiancee is, a racial mix of the first, third and fourth categories. I see they were the most sensible voters, too. ;-)
Come to think of it, maybe "other" are those, to generalize, fantastically attractive mixed race types, the golden folk.
Those are pretty good numbers spread out among ethnic groups. That seems that the Republicans could be in striking distance.
I suspect you agree with my previous post, totally. :)
Sigh.... It is worse than I thought. Those numbers suck. Ofcourse I would love to see a republican boot Akaka out of office, but we are talking liberal alamo Hawaii here.
I think the chances of that are slim to none right now, but who knows...
But honestly, I believe that anyone would be better than Akaka for Hawaii at this point. Even Ed Case.
I would urge every Republican to vote for Akaka in the primary, ultimately both he and Inouye are more likely than not to leave office feet first and Lingle will be able to appoint a GOP successor (assuming that power hasn't been stripped from her). If Case loses the primary, he may be forced to get a real job in the private sector. If he wins the primary and the general, he'll be in the Senate until 2031, at least.
Kawananakoa faces one struggle in that no Republican has ever won the 2nd district since statehood (Saiki won the 1st). He had been talked up as a strong candidate for the 1st in '98 against the hippie Abercrombie, but withdrew due to health reasons. The 1st may be an easier seat for the GOP to win, however.
Does Gov. Quinn still make any public appearances today ? I know he turns 86 in July. I know Quinn was the only one of Ike's 2 young GOP territorial Gubernatorial appointees from Alaska & HI to win the job AFTER statehood in '59 (Mike Stepovich of AK, who turned 86 in March, lost to John Burns's AK counterpart, Bill Egan). Quinn did manage to beat Burns in the first contest, but lost 3 years later (largely because Quinn was kneecapped by his own Lt Gov, James Kealoha, who fatally damaged him for the '62 general).
Fortunately, at least Hiram Fong kept the entire Congressional delegation from being "all nut" for the first 18 years (and we very nearly came close to having 2 GOP Senators first elected in '59, with Japanese-American and former Senate President Wilfred C. Tsukiyama losing just narrowly to Oren Long -- Tsukiyama's consolation prize was getting appointed as the 1st State Chief Justice of the Supreme Court), and it was unfortunately he didn't stay a bit longer.
As for Kawananakoa (it's a -nakoa as opposed to -kakoa, but the name is a mouthful !), he'd be following in the footsteps of his family if he made it to Congress. As a descendent of the Hawaiian Royal family, his relative, (Prince) Jonah Kuhio Kalanianaole, was a Republican Congressional delegate from 1903 (when he was elected at 31) until his untimely death at 50 in 1922.
There's plenty of aholes elected from the mainland.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.