Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Case Campaign Poll Shows Dead Heat(Hawaii Senator in Primary trouble?)
kitv ^ | may 17. 2006 | kitv

Posted on 05/18/2006 5:44:38 PM PDT by catholicfreeper

HONOLULU -- Rep. Ed Case's senatorial campaign released selected results of one of its polls on Tuesday, which show Case virtually tied with fellow Democrat Sen. Dan Akaka in the race for the U.S. Senate.

It is the first poll to be made public since Case announced he was challenging Akaka in January.

A research firm hired by Case's campaign carried out the poll, and he released only portions of the data.

The poll taken by the Honolulu firm Q-Mark Research and Polling found the race between Akaka and Case is very close four months away from the primary election.

Case's campaign said the survey asked 700 likely voters between April 21 and May 9 who they would vote for if the Senate election was held today.

Forty percent of the respondents said they would vote for Akaka, 38 percent said they would choose Case, while 22 percent either didn't know or refused to answer. The margin of error was 3.7 percent.

"It puts Sen. Akaka in a much weaker position than I think lots of people thought he would be in at this stage, and certainly lots of people thought he would ever be in at the beginning of this campaign," University of Hawaii political science professor Neal Milner said.

"It was reflective of what I've heard from many people throughout Hawaii over the last couple of months as I've gone out there and campaigned," Case said.

The same potential voters were then asked questions highlighting the principal themes of the Case campaign -- about experience, transition, performance and change, and then again asked whom they'd vote for. This time Case came out slightly ahead with 44 percent of the responses compared to Akaka's 39 percent.

Case refused to release the wording of the questions or a breakdown of all the poll's results.

"I'm not going to be providing the further details beyond the result. It's, you know, campaign information, we're in the middle of a campaign and I'm sure it's information that the opposition would love to have as well," Case said.

The Akaka campaign said it has also been polling, but declined to release its results.

"(Case's) poll results indicate we have a contested primary," spokeswoman Elisa Yadao said.

She said the Akaka campaign is "...confident that when people look at Sen. Akaka's record of accomplishments and his position on issues they're going to make the right choice."

It appears that Case is only giving out the poll results that make him look good. For example, he wouldn't tell KITV the results for voters who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary, which is the race they're in. So the results he released include Republican voters, many who will not vote in the Democratic primary in September.

Previous Stories: January 20, 2006: Akaka 'Disappointed' By Case's Run For Senate January 20, 2006: Some Hawaii Democrats Angered By Case's Decision January 20, 2006: Case Will Challenge Akaka For Senate Seat


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Hawaii
KEYWORDS: 2006; akaka; case; edcase; hawaii; senate
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-46 next last
To: Clintonfatigued; catholicfreeper; Proud_USA_Republican; maui_hawaii; AuH2ORepublican; Kuksool; ...

If Case is elected Senator, he'll be the first haole to hold the job since 70-year old Kansan Oren Long in 1959.

Frankly, I think the only strong candidate we could get to run against him would be Lt Gov Duke Aiona.


21 posted on 05/18/2006 10:02:45 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Cheney X -- Destroying the Liberal Democrat Traitors By Any Means Necessary -- Ya Dig ? Sho 'Nuff.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: fieldmarshaldj

Haole's in Hawaii now vote more Dem in Hawaii than Asians do. Isn't that interesting? Hawaii ain't like the mainland.


22 posted on 05/18/2006 10:05:00 PM PDT by Torie
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: Torie; AuH2ORepublican; Clintonfatigued

I've heard that, but it seems odd given the racial makeup of the GOP elected officials in Hawaii. The only way to explain it is if Asians are more willing to vote for haole Republicans and haoles similarly more willing to vote for Asian/Native Hawaiian Democrats. Did Lingle get a majority of the haole vote ?


23 posted on 05/18/2006 10:17:11 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Cheney X -- Destroying the Liberal Democrat Traitors By Any Means Necessary -- Ya Dig ? Sho 'Nuff.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: fieldmarshaldj

Well I hope the RNC is watch developments there. Case's poll might be BS but it might be worth a little money if the Republican Senatorial committee spent a little money on some polling of their own. I have no idea how expensive a race is in Hawaii but its not too late in the game to get someone in if they have a chance.


24 posted on 05/18/2006 10:18:34 PM PDT by catholicfreeper (Proud supporter of Pres. Bush and the Gop-- with no caveats, qualifiers, or bitc*en)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: catholicfreeper

The reason Ed will win is that he's a DINO. My dad is a lifetime hardcore republican who has lived in Hawaii since 1959. He's told me that he will gladly vote for Case and that really blew me away. I think many republicans of Hawaii know that Case is their only chance to get a senator who will move away from the left more towards the right and put Akaka out to pasture where that useless tool belongs.





25 posted on 05/18/2006 10:20:07 PM PDT by Proud_USA_Republican (We're going to take things away from you on behalf of the common good. - Hillary Clinton)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: catholicfreeper

Duke Aiona could be our Native Hawaiian Michael Steele.


26 posted on 05/18/2006 10:22:26 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Cheney X -- Destroying the Liberal Democrat Traitors By Any Means Necessary -- Ya Dig ? Sho 'Nuff.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: cmsgop

I just started watching that show this week.


27 posted on 05/18/2006 10:22:29 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: Proud_USA_Republican; catholicfreeper
"The reason Ed will win is that he's a DINO."

Ed Case and Neil Abercrombie's ACU rating in 2005 was absolutely identical... 12%. Akaka scored an 8%. If Case were scoring near 50%, then you could call him a DINO, but he's as far on the left as the bulk of the 'Rats are. Interesting how Case has some people "hosed."

28 posted on 05/18/2006 10:27:13 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Cheney X -- Destroying the Liberal Democrat Traitors By Any Means Necessary -- Ya Dig ? Sho 'Nuff.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: fieldmarshaldj
I don't know, but here is the 2004 exit poll (no, I don't know what "other" means):

               Bush             Kerry

White (42%)	42%	n/a	58%			
						
African-American (1%)	*	n/a	*			
						
Latino (10%)	46%	n/a	54%			
						
Asian (26%)	48%	13	52%			
						
Other (22%)	52%	18	48%			

29 posted on 05/18/2006 10:33:10 PM PDT by Torie
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: Torie

I didn't realize Whites were 42% of the electorate.

"Other" would be what my ex-fiancee is, a racial mix of the first, third and fourth categories. I see they were the most sensible voters, too. ;-)


30 posted on 05/18/2006 10:36:57 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Cheney X -- Destroying the Liberal Democrat Traitors By Any Means Necessary -- Ya Dig ? Sho 'Nuff.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: Torie

Come to think of it, maybe "other" are those, to generalize, fantastically attractive mixed race types, the golden folk.


31 posted on 05/18/2006 10:37:09 PM PDT by Torie
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: Torie

Those are pretty good numbers spread out among ethnic groups. That seems that the Republicans could be in striking distance.


32 posted on 05/18/2006 10:38:05 PM PDT by catholicfreeper (Proud supporter of Pres. Bush and the Gop-- with no caveats, qualifiers, or bitc*en)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: fieldmarshaldj

I suspect you agree with my previous post, totally. :)


33 posted on 05/18/2006 10:39:03 PM PDT by Torie
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 30 | View Replies]

To: fieldmarshaldj

Sigh.... It is worse than I thought. Those numbers suck. Ofcourse I would love to see a republican boot Akaka out of office, but we are talking liberal alamo Hawaii here.
I think the chances of that are slim to none right now, but who knows...

But honestly, I believe that anyone would be better than Akaka for Hawaii at this point. Even Ed Case.


34 posted on 05/18/2006 11:09:43 PM PDT by Proud_USA_Republican (We're going to take things away from you on behalf of the common good. - Hillary Clinton)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: catholicfreeper
"All politics are local."

Ed Case is a very likable, affable person with a track record in Congress. He made no waves there. But now he's challenged the 'Machine' and has hard times ahead. If he succeeds, Hawaii will still have two Democrat Senators; Case will be under Inouye's wing.

Case's House seat will be up for grabs and the race is on. Quentin Kawanakakoa is the Republican runner. If he wins, he'll be the first R congressman since Pat Saiki.

On the local side, the State legislature (part time) has voted to spend the huge tax surplus rather than return it. And then resolved to raise taxes and fees. (Last inaccurate figure I'd heard was a surplus of $579 million.)
35 posted on 05/18/2006 11:14:22 PM PDT by BIGLOOK (Keelhauling is a sensible solution to mutiny!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Proud_USA_Republican

I would urge every Republican to vote for Akaka in the primary, ultimately both he and Inouye are more likely than not to leave office feet first and Lingle will be able to appoint a GOP successor (assuming that power hasn't been stripped from her). If Case loses the primary, he may be forced to get a real job in the private sector. If he wins the primary and the general, he'll be in the Senate until 2031, at least.


36 posted on 05/18/2006 11:42:52 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Cheney X -- Destroying the Liberal Democrat Traitors By Any Means Necessary -- Ya Dig ? Sho 'Nuff.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 34 | View Replies]

To: BIGLOOK

Kawananakoa faces one struggle in that no Republican has ever won the 2nd district since statehood (Saiki won the 1st). He had been talked up as a strong candidate for the 1st in '98 against the hippie Abercrombie, but withdrew due to health reasons. The 1st may be an easier seat for the GOP to win, however.


37 posted on 05/18/2006 11:49:49 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Cheney X -- Destroying the Liberal Democrat Traitors By Any Means Necessary -- Ya Dig ? Sho 'Nuff.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 35 | View Replies]

To: fieldmarshaldj
There hasn't been a Republican governor in Hawaii since Bill Quinn (Territorial governor). Lingle took it from the Burn's machine and she's from Maui. Maui, Kona on the Big Island are trending Republican, so I'd say 2nd district is attainable. Quentin Kawanakakoa got a shot.

I'd like to see Abercrombie out. Was at the UH with the guy. I still have trouble with his position on the AF committee. The guy hates the military.
38 posted on 05/19/2006 12:18:56 AM PDT by BIGLOOK (Keelhauling is a sensible solution to mutiny!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 37 | View Replies]

To: BIGLOOK; Clintonfatigued; AuH2ORepublican

Does Gov. Quinn still make any public appearances today ? I know he turns 86 in July. I know Quinn was the only one of Ike's 2 young GOP territorial Gubernatorial appointees from Alaska & HI to win the job AFTER statehood in '59 (Mike Stepovich of AK, who turned 86 in March, lost to John Burns's AK counterpart, Bill Egan). Quinn did manage to beat Burns in the first contest, but lost 3 years later (largely because Quinn was kneecapped by his own Lt Gov, James Kealoha, who fatally damaged him for the '62 general).

Fortunately, at least Hiram Fong kept the entire Congressional delegation from being "all nut" for the first 18 years (and we very nearly came close to having 2 GOP Senators first elected in '59, with Japanese-American and former Senate President Wilfred C. Tsukiyama losing just narrowly to Oren Long -- Tsukiyama's consolation prize was getting appointed as the 1st State Chief Justice of the Supreme Court), and it was unfortunately he didn't stay a bit longer.

As for Kawananakoa (it's a -nakoa as opposed to -kakoa, but the name is a mouthful !), he'd be following in the footsteps of his family if he made it to Congress. As a descendent of the Hawaiian Royal family, his relative, (Prince) Jonah Kuhio Kalanianaole, was a Republican Congressional delegate from 1903 (when he was elected at 31) until his untimely death at 50 in 1922.


39 posted on 05/19/2006 1:08:48 AM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Cheney X -- Destroying the Liberal Democrat Traitors By Any Means Necessary -- Ya Dig ? Sho 'Nuff.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 38 | View Replies]

To: fieldmarshaldj
If Case is elected Senator, he'll be the first haole to hold the job since

There's plenty of aholes elected from the mainland.

40 posted on 05/19/2006 5:30:30 AM PDT by JohnnyZ (Happy New Year! Breed like dogs!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-46 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson