In Iraq war, time is a weapon

Special Forces officer: What we now have in Iraq is incredibly complex - elements of a failed state, insurgency and terrorism.

US forces in Iraq, locked in a war that cannot be won by military force alone, are facing a weapon that tends to favor insurgents - time.

The war is in its fourth year and public support is waning. According to opinion polls taken in May, a majority of Americans think that invading Iraq was a mistake and that things in Iraq are going badly. The souring public mood does not bode well for the prospects of prevailing over an insurgency US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld has said could last another decade.

Military officers and experts involved in drafting a new counterinsurgency manual for the US Army and the Marine Corps say that patience is one of the keys for success in winning against the kind of enemy the US is facing in Iraq.

"The counterinsurgency effort requires a firm political will and extreme patience," says the draft, now going through revisions and expected to be issued in summer. "The insurgent wins if he does not lose, while the counterinsurgent loses if he does not win. Insurgents are strengthened by the common perception that a few casualties or a few years will cause the United States to abandon the effort."

Military history shows that past counterinsurgency campaigns in other parts of the world have taken between five and 15 years.

The manual, the first new edition for the Army in 20 years and for the Marines in 25, is being written against the background of what the army describes as its most profound transformation in half a century, a massive program to change mindsets away from traditional army-against-army warfare to the type of irregular conflict the United States is confronting in Iraq and Afghanistan.

In a fundamental change in policy, the Pentagon last year also declared that establishing order and security, restoring essential services and meeting the humanitarian needs of the population of a vanquished country were a "core US military mission." In other words US soldiers should be equally adept in fighting war and making peace.

"None of this can be done quickly," said a Special Forces officer just back from Iraq who requested anonymity. “And one can only hope we will be given enough time to do it. What we now have in Iraq is incredibly complex - elements of a failed state, an insurgency and terrorism."

In past conflicts the United States has often lacked the "extreme patience" prescribed in the new manual, largely because of pressures from a public clamouring for swift, decisive victories. Both in Vietnam and Korea, public support ran high for the first two years and then dropped steadily in the perceived absence of fast progress.

In a recent study published by the Strategic Studies Institute of the US Army War College, scholar Colin Gray noted that "time is a weapon, and the mindset needed to combat an enemy who is playing a long game is not one that comes naturally to the American soldier or, for that matter, to the American public."

"To wage protracted war is not a preference in our military and strategic culture,” he said, and it is difficult to explain and defend to a doubting and increasingly impatient public.

Doubts and impatience, the polls indicate, stem from a steadily mounting casualty toll - nearing 2,500 - and the perception that the United States is bogged down in Iraq and getting sucked into a vortex of sectarian violence between Iraqi factions who have been unable to form an effective government.

The US government has shied away from estimating how long the insurgency in Iraq might last since Rumsfeld said, in June last year, that it "could go on for any number of years. Insurgencies tend to go on five, six, eight, 10, 12 years."

Andrew Krepinevich, a retired army officer and professor at Washington's George Mason University, estimates that defeating the insurgency in Iraq would take at least a decade, hundreds of billions of dollars and longer casualty rolls. "Are the American people and American soldiers willing to pay that price"? He asked in an article in the magazine Foreign Affairs.

The crucial role of time was discussed at a recent Washington seminar of military officers and academics. They touched on the need for patience and the tension between the military's traditional desire for quick short-term results and the requirements of fully understanding the environment before acting.

To underline the different concept of time in different cultures, one of the participants cited a saying he attributed to the Taliban in Afghanistan, where the United States has been fighting for the past five years and the insurgency is strengthening.

"The Americans have the wristwatches," the saying goes, "but we've got the time."

We've got money on our side: Lots of oil to pay for local IRAQ police and army units. Units which keep getting bigger and better with time. The bad guys have already lost but we should stay in if only to show to them we do have staying power, that the traitors on our side no longer can depress this country into defeat.

I think there's plenty of will to stay in for the long haul, as long as the Iraqis are seen to be making progress and taking the lead, and we're transitioning to a support role.

I can see us there for another ten years without any major domestic uproar IF it's SF advisor, air and logistic support, and a limited number or American combat troops who stay in garrison most of the time. But 100,000+ American troops, with several getting killed and wounded every week? Patience is running out on that, and not just among the liberals. Iraq needs to get its government formed immediately, and get on the road to being a functioning state.

Iraq needs to get its government formed immediately, and get on the road to being a functioning state

I think it has with yesterday's announcement of the Cabinet being presented to the President yesterday and to be voted on Saturday.

I think the Iraqi security forces are also starting to shine.

"I think the Iraqi security forces are also starting to shine."

Yep..that's exactly what this is all about. The Dems of course want to continue to say we are not winning so when Iraq is ready for us to pull out the moonbats can say we are leaving in defeat. This has been their reason all along for the misinformation campaign.

If you wait long enough, all the illogical pieces of the puzzle start to fall into place.

Yes, time is an element of strategy. Successfully observed by Rummy's and Franks decision to "go with what they had".
(of course including the 4th Inf Div on the northern border} This timing enabled the swift capture of the capital and Saddam before he could successfully plan for and deploy his main battle elements and assured our successful mission. Subsequent disarray in the chaotic Occupation Mission of such a factional society was probably not foreseen nor could it have been properly prepared for had we to wait for PERFECT SOLUTION from the state department or a traitorous CIA. Reality tells us PERFECT
SOLUTIONS are found only in the hindsight critiques of the self anointed intellectually elite mental masturbators.
Even at that, our magnificent forces have adapted and prevailed, which is what they are trained to do and the way wars are fought. Have we been suffering casualties?Sadly Yes.but I would venture they would be 5 times higher had we waited for the perfect solution or Colin Powell's Textbook "preponderance of forces solution {9to 1 as I remember} It might have made a difference in a conventional conflict, I'm not so sure its applicable to a diffuse war against terrorists.
We have done the Job and will Prevail. This Saturday The Iraq government will complete the formation of its government and will assume responsibility for its own well being for better or worse.. We gave them that gift and should hold our heads high with pride. If we continue stand by to help as needed, Thats all anyone can ask..
Let us pray that our traitorous congress will not sell them out as they did the south Vietnamese

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