Posted on 05/16/2006 5:46:34 PM PDT by Retain Mike
I ran the numbers once I the relative chances of violent death of a typical US male age 18 to 40. Those in the military, or just in the US. Basically the same. Those actually in Iraq, somewhat higher than the US average, and comparable to a US male in that age group in a large city with a crime problem e.g. Detroit or DC. Whole military is not that bad because lots aren't serving in Iraq etc. Chances of wounding were higher in Iraq, though.
If a US statistician tried to prove the US were at war by fatalities alone, he could not do it, and get the paper published in a peer reviewed journal. (Their standards of statistical significance would reject). Our losses in Iraq are so low they are basically at background. They can't go to zero - men do not become immortal -because- they are shipped to a -combat- zone.
There is no defeat in Iraq and never was. It is mostly media guff. There are enough Americans being wounded that we'd much rather have Iraqis take over the job of their own security.
Two other points of historical comparison. When Germany conquered France in about one month, it was considered a shockingly cheap and clear victory, revolutionizing people's expectations, "lightening war". The Germans lost 25 times as many KIA in that month as we have in 3 years in Iraq. (They still faced resistence fighters 4 years later, but nobody pretended they hadn't won, until US and British forces kicked them out again).
Second, because of the recent anniversary of the end of WW II, I happened to come across a figure for Russian losses in just the last 3 weeks of the war, in their victorious offensives into Berlin and Prague. They lost 93,000 KIA in just those 3 weeks. Winning. We haven't lost 3,000 in 3 years in Iraq. The rate is lower by a factor of 1600.
Miller read the story straight because it was silly enough, but then added the punchline, "But if you do go to the Gaza Strip, authorities warn you to bring your riot shield and your Visa card because in the Gaza Strip, they don't take prisoners and they don't take American Express."
(It was an 80s Visa commercial thing, for those unfamiliar with it.)
TS
Look, I am simply questioning the statistical validity of the Iraq violent mortality rate, as I have yet to find anything other than cluster studies from 2004. So far the best anyone can offer is "I ran the numbers once, and.."
I am currently serching for some standardised violent mortality rates.
I didn't harrumph about the comparisons to Colombia or South Africa. One might argue that Colombia is a special case because of all the drug murders or that South Africa is a special case because of all the government-sponsored death squads, but of course that is the point, that these countries and Iraq are all special cases in different ways. Those are valid comparisons.
Good point. I know Washington DC fairly well, and several neighborhoods are positively terrifying.
Prayers and best wishes for your son. Thanks and God bless for his service.
The Army recently reported that they were losing more Soldiers stateside(on leave) in accidents than in Afghanistan
Okay, so the murder rate is lower in Baghdad than in DC, Atlanta, pre-Katrina N.O. I am even betting Chicago has a higher. Does this mean that we can take our soldiers in Iraq and have them patrol New Fallujah (Detroit), DC, Atlanta, and other haven's of the criminal enterprise?
It would seem that Rush should be calling Fallujah "New Detroit",
instead of the other way around. ;o)
Welcome to FR, Szent_Adam_Kiraly.
It's nice to have you here.
absolutely
the us should quit/ withdraw from all the quagmires; in washington, baltimore etc etc and spare its men and women. keep them safe and secure
Don't forget the death rates for 750cc Kawasaki's, but I do wish someone was a New York Sun subcriber and could post the original article. Thank God he left the motorcycle behind.
(Thanks for the heads up, Grampa Dave)
Please FReepmail me if you want on or off my ‘miscellaneous’ ping list.
I think that I have seen your replies re this data.
If this data is sound, we can pound the lefties with this data.
We can say to the young males in these Blue Cities, "Get out of the Dangerous city you live in and join the military, it is safer."
Would you please post a research link for us.
Thanks.
Out here in California, even moderates are saying that they don't want to go to the Blue Cities for anything.
Our church, once or twice a year hosts a trip into Gay Frisco to see a play at very good prices and a chartered bus. They may have to cancel the current one planned in June because not enough people signed up for it. The prices are outrageous, and people are fatigued with the homeless and other mental case roaming around Gay Frisco.
bttt
Hmmm, I wonder how the rate of having body parts blown off compares? Seriously, though, this is just a stupid statistics trick.
Everybody who would really like to go to Iraq for vacation raise your hand. Don't all jump at once.
"Okay, so the murder rate is lower in Baghdad than in DC, Atlanta, pre-Katrina N.O."
Some posters here are pointing out that it's not the rate in Baghdad being compared, but all of Iraq. Baghdad would undoubtedly be much higher.
just smell bad too if you're living in a blue state.
Catherine Allen: How often do you bathe?
Will Penny: Well, eight or nine times. It depends.
Catherine Allen: On what?
Will Penny: The weather.
Catherine Allen: Eight or nine times a month?
Will Penny: Eight or nine times a month? A year!
Catherine Allen: A year?
Will Penny: Well sure. You have a real good one when you finish the shove up north, like at the hotel in Alfred. Then one or two in the winter, if you don't catch your death. Then a couple in the spring and one more good one before you start the shove up again. The rest depends on what kind of water you hit on the drive. Well, what's wrong with that? That's as much as anybody!
That must mean some areas of major U.S. cities are as dangerous as el Anbar province, and most of Iraq must be fairly pacific and resemble the quiet residental suburbs of our cities. That analysis is in keeping with our experience in Washington D.C. visiting our son. Several times we were told, "You don't walk that direction". We asked the people at AAA about a couple hotels closer to his base that had really good prices and were told, "We never recommend that location". The place we did stay at had the counter completely surrounded by bullet proof glass. We followed his directions about where to go and what to avoid. I do wish someone was a subcriber to New York Sun and could post the entire article, so I could get some idea of their information sources. I went to Rep. Steve King's website to see if I could find information there, but either he did not have anything posted or I clicked into the wrong areas.
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