Posted on 05/16/2006 9:48:51 AM PDT by Lunatic Fringe
http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htproc/articles/20060517.aspx
Iran's F-16 Maintenance Nightmare
May 17, 2006: The threat by Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez selling 21 of Venezuela's F-16 fighters to Iran, has gained press attention. However, this is a threat that is largely empty in terms of potential harm to the United States.
The F-16s in question were acquired in 1983 and 1984, and are technically the F-16A/B Block 15 (F-16s currently in service with the US Air Force are F-16C/D Block 50s, with the F-16E/F Block 60 being built for the UAE). The planes in question are twenty years old – and for the F-16, that is very old indeed. These aircraft are not equipped with the latest radars, air-to-air missiles, or jammers. And, in the eight years since Chavez took power, they have not been getting much in the way of logistics thanks to the freeze in relations (upsetting the country which makes the spare parts for your combat aircraft is not a good idea).
That said, Chavez's threat to sell them to Iran is meant to generate headlines, and to symbolically hurt the United States. But this move, while it would violate various export agreements, really will not hurt the United States militarily, even if Iran were to get all 21 of these F-16s. The planes would be going from a country with very limited logistical support ability for the F-16 (Venezuela) to one with practically no ability to support F-16A operations at all.
For instance, none of Iran's planes currently in service use the Pratt and Whitney F100 engine that the Venezuelan planes use. Nor does Iran have any aircraft that use the APG-66 radar on the F-16A. Iran could use rear-aspect Sidewinders from its F-5 force, along with 20mm cannon ammo from its force of F-4s, but when something on the airplane breaks, Iran will have to cannibalize, and that means that 21 F-16s will quickly drop to a much lower figure – as past experience with Iran's force of F-5s, F-4s, and F-14s has shown. Venezuela could send over what spare parts and missiles (including older all-aspect AIM-9L Sidewinders), but the missiles will have a finite shelf life. Expired missiles are generally unhealthy for people who try to use them.
In other words, if Chavez is able to sell the planes to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's regime in Iran, he will have sold 21 planes which will rapidly become a world-class maintenance and logistical headache for their new owners.
Oh right, he's hiring 2.5 million soldiers and 100,000 rifles to stop a US invasion? Please. Why would we invade the place. If anything, he's got his eye on Guyana.
They probably will use them as surface to surface nukes like in the movie " The Jewel Of The Nile " . That is , if they ever get them all the way over there ... HA !!!
Hmmm, such a move would make one feel that the vilification of Pat Robertson for remarks about Chavez was, in the end, misplaced and more ill-considered than remarks themselves.
This is the greatest news for the Pentagon, who can point to the need for keeping our technology advancing and not kill advanced programs.
Don't we have the radio frequencies of the auto-destruct mechanisms on these things? ;)
They'll probably send them on a passenger/cargo ship. Human shields.
The major issue with what happened in the Falkland Islands with the British is that they had capital warships in range of ground based aircraft capable of firing antiship missiles. Their protection was a WWII era system with Harriers flying CAP (Combat Air Patrol) and Destroyer/Frigate Pickets that were supposed to serve as early warning systems to pick up the inbound aircraft.
I know a little about these things (As former US Navy flight deck crew) so I know that having Ticonderoga class Aegis cruisers on the water coupled with E-2C Hawkeye aircraft overhead (Heck, they would probably fly some E-3 Sentry aircraft down from Florida) would make the chance of even a capable pilot getting close enough to cause damage vanishingly small indeed.
The biggest threat we would face would be submarines, I know they have a couple of older German built ones and are probably shopping for some newer ones with their oil money. But I wouldn't be too worried about them. They don't have the infrastructure or basing to be able to send these things out of whatever Venezuelan navy base and hide out or be replenished at sea. They only have one replenishment vessel, and they can't use that. Not only are they tied to having to return to base, and you can bet we have some Los Angeles or Seawolf class submarines lurking around the Venezuelan ports even today, as we speak. Diesel Electric subs can be very quiet, but unless they have some newer ones (not yet) they are not going to go far.
Iran's US supplied aircraft are still seen out over the Gulf to this day. F-14s, F-4, F-5s and P-3s are still very much active.
MKKs are the PRC version. There are no Su-37s. The one and only Su-37 crashed in 2001. The aircraft bort 711 had been converted back into Su-35 status prior to its demise.
I have to agree. The missles I was talking about can be launched from over 200 miles away, our Early warning can detect the aircraft but the missle is practicaly invisible and on top of that traveling at 3 times the speed of sound with 750lb warhead the impact alone would tare any US navy ship in half.( now given we dont Send our Elite Seals in first to disable these Capabilities)
Another factor is are we willing to risk a naval invasion or our us southern command here in the us, remeber battle fronts with a country like venezuela would not be limmited to the Country but would spread all over the caribbean even using cuba as a staging ground for a good offensive agains the us. Needless to say A war Between the us and Venezuela would be a real Bad one where the body count will be high on both sides, and it would realy suck if it came on us soil for the first time. heck just think of all the venezuelans that are here already, they have groups marching in washington Tomorrow supporting Chavez! just like the defense department report said the lack of success in part on the us to help Venezuela gain a good economy usng our Capitalist system lead to a leftist populist movement which is not a bad thing Until we have to pay more for oil. In turn venezuela Has more money now than 4 years ago. We realy need to sell America like we used to , instead of forcing it down the world which hates us or views us in the wrong way. I love the US just think our leadership Forgot who they work for!!
Stop reading non-sense. Venezuela does not have any MiGs in their inventory. Neither do they have Russian anti-ship cruise missiles.
The 'super camberras' you are talking about are actually Super Etendard. The Super Etendard is a French design. The Canberra was a UK supplied light bomber. The Exocets fired by the Super Etendards did not kill 'hundreds' of British Marines. Neither did Argentina fly their aircraft to Venezeula. The Exocets for the Argentine Super Etendards were supplied direct from France before the conflict. The Argentines only had 5 Exocets supplied from France. The French technicians left Argentina upon commencement of hostiliites leaving the Argentines the integrate the Exocets onto the Super Etendards.
I would be astonished if they were doing much more with their F-14's than flying a rare sortie with one cobbled together from parts cannibalized from their basket case spares. As a former USN jet mechanic, I know it took a lot of maintenance to keep those beautiful planes in the air.
I don't doubt they are still flying their F-5 and F-4 aircraft, since there is a ready supply of spare parts around the world (I would guess...I don't know that for sure, but we sold so many of those all over the world.
Have you heard from a reliable source they are still flying their Tomcats?
The Prefix Code!
Yup. I serve in the military. The F-14s are still very much active. The Iranians still generate a fairly healthy F-14 sortie rate and are well known to the Coalition forces in the region. Bushehr F-14s fly regular combat air patrols. How do the Iranians still do it? Cannibalized fleet and also their own aviation industry manufacturing parts. Expensive way to do it, but they have their oil money to do so.
During 2004 and 2005 the Iranians release exercise video footage showing formation flights of F-14s.
The aircraft that you have show on this thread is the MRCA demonstrator 154. Would you care to explain how this very aircraft is still on MiGs inventory. Here is the very same aircraft pictured in Russian in 2004:
Here is 154 in its new livery during 2005: 
Individuals like yourself are naive enough to believe the idiotic rumours that abound. In reality to date Venezuela has no MiGs in its inventory.
LOL. You are talking complete non-sense. Neither the Argentine Air Force or Naval aircraft operated out of Venezuela on any of their missions. Take a look at a map for crying out loud! Please go to the Fuerza Aerea Argentina website. Would you care to contact them and tell them all about their flights to Venezuela before flying to the Falklands? Again take a look at a map before posting non-sense such as this.
Copy and paste the link. You really need to to some serious research into this subject.
http://www.fuerzaaerea.mil.ar/conflicto/operaciones_aereas.html
The total losses on both sides exceeded 1,000. What you have done is confused the losses of both the UK and Argentina. 252 UK Servicemen died during the conflict, not 1,000. Argentina lost 952 dead. Argentine President Carlos Menem laid a wreath in memory of the dead of the war in London in 1998.
Copy and paste the link:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/202838.stm
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