Posted on 05/15/2006 6:22:08 AM PDT by isaiah55version11_0
I doubted the strategic wisdom of conservatives sitting out this election to “teach Republicans a lesson”; several bloggers have responded.
There are still doubters and skeptics, though. What’s really stunning is this absolute certainty of angry conservatives that A) Republicans will learn the right lessons from the defeat, and not, say, respond in a panic by embracing their inner RINO and flailing around for MSM approval and B) that the Republicans can easily win back Congress in 2008, just by stiffening their spines and pledging to return to their conservative roots.
I have my doubts on both counts. For starters, why would Republicans get the message that “we need to be more conservative” in a year that conservatives were knocked out?
Who are the Republican lawmakers most angering the conservative base? Well, let’s say Sens. Trent “I’m tired of hearing about Porkbusters” Lott, Ted “Bridge to Nowhere” Stevens, John McCain for cosponsoring Kennedy’s immigration bill and campaign finance reform, Arlen Specter for being a pain in the tushie over judges, Chuck Hagel for being the New York Times’ favorite Republican senator to criticize Bush, and other minimally-conservative Republicans like Sens. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins. Well, they’re not going to lose in 2006. Most of ‘em aren’t even up for reelection this year.
Look at the Republicans most in jeopardy in 2006. (I’m using National Journal’s most recent rankings.)
In the Senate, a bad year for the Republicans would mean the loss of Rick Santorum (who has lifetime American Conservative Union rating of 88 out of a possible 100, and a 92 in 2005) in Pennsylvania, Jim Talent (93 rating lifetime, and a 96 in 2005) in Missouri, Conrad Burns (91, and a perfect 100 in 2005) in Montana and Mike DeWine (80 lifetime, only 56 in 2005) in Ohio. Of course, Ohio voters who sit this one out will replace DeWine with Sherrod Brown, who has a lifetime rating of 8 and 4 for 2005. And they won’t get to revisit that decision until 2012.
If the GOP base doesn’t show up in Minnesota, you get Amy Klobuchar instead of Mark Kennedy (90 rating lifetime, 84 in 2005).
If the GOP base doesn’t show in Maryland, you get Ben Cardin (lifetime rating of 6, 2005 rating of 0!) or Kweise Mfume (lifetime ACU rating of 4) instead of Michael Steele.
If the GOP base doesn’t show in Tennessee, you get Harold Ford (19 lifetime, 21 in 2005) instead of Ed Bryant (lifetime ACU score of 98!) Van Hilleary (lifetime score of 97!). Another GOP candidate is Bob Corker, Chattanooga mayor.
If the GOP base doesn't show in West Virginia, you get Robert Byrd (lifetime rating of 30, 20 in 2005) as Appropriations Committee Chairman, instead of businessman John Raese.
If the GOP base doesn't show in Washington, you keep Maria Cantwell (11 lifetime, 8 in 2005) instead of businessman Mike McGavick.
Okay, maybe Chafee goes down. But you've lost how many solid conservatives to remove this one guy?
In the House, I'm looking at the vulnerable incumbent Republicans, according to the Hotline.
There’s Bob Ney, who has a lifetime ACU rating of 86, and 88 in 2005. I realize he has ethics issues; the voters in his district will have to decide whether the allegations are serious enough to disqualify him from office. (Presuming a prosecutor doesn't say something first.)
There’s Jim Gerlach of Pennsylvania, with a 67 lifetime and 56 in 2005. Let’s observe that Kerry carried Gerlach’s district, and Al Gore did as well four years earlier; each of the last two cycles Gerlach has carried 51 percent of the vote. So Gerlach may be as conservative a lawmaker as you can elect in this district.
Down the line of the National Journal list, you see fairly conservative to very conservative GOP lawmakers at risk this year: Shaw of Florida, 82 lifetime, 71 last year. Heather Wilson of New Mexico 82 lifetime, 75 last year. Mike Sodrel of Indiana, 92, only served one year so far. Davis, Kentucky 88, another first-year guy. Hostettler of Indiana, 90 lifetime, 100 in 2005. Pryce of Ohio, 79 lifetime, 83 in 2005. Curt Weldon of Pennsylvania, (Mr. Able Danger!) 70 lifetime, 65 in 2005. Charles Taylor of North Carolina, 92 both lifetime and 2005.
Yeah, maybe if conservatives stay home, they’ll knock out liberal Republican Chris Shays of Connecticut. Whoop-de-doo. Who’s going to be left standing?
Trent “I’m tired of hearing about Porkbusters” Lott, Ted “Bridge to Nowhere” Stevens, John McCain, Arlen Specter, Chuck Hagel, Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins.
Nice job, guys. Your effort to re-conservativize the Republican Party in Washington by staying home this year will have the effect of massacring the actual conservatives and empowering the moderates who you disdain. Perhaps we can call this counterproductive maneuver “RINO-plasty.”
But that’s okay, the staying-at-home-conservatives insist. The GOP will win back the House and Senate in 2008, establishing a true conservative majority.
Maybe. But as I mentioned, what kind of lengths do you think the Democrats will go to in order to keep power once they’ve got it? Does the “Fairness Doctrine” ring a bell? You think Pelosi and Reid wouldn’t try that tactic to hinder conservative talk radio? How about McCain-Feingold 2.0, with a particular focus on controlling “unregulated speech” on the Internet and blogs?
Think the MSM was cheerleading for Democrats in 2004? How much more fair and balanced do you think they’ll be when their task is to defend Democratic House and Senate majorities AND elect President Hillary Rodham Clinton? My guess is, they’ll make the CBS memo story look accurate and evenhanded by comparison.
Think the GOP can prevail in close races once they’re out of power? Ask the members of the military who had their ballots in Florida blocked. Ask Doug Forrester how well his anti-Torricelli campaign worked when he suddenly faced Frank Lautenberg at the last minute. Ask Dino Rossi. Ask Democrat Tim Johnson if he’s glad the last county in South Dakota to report its results just happened to have enough of a Democratic margin to put him over the top in 2002.
Once the Democrats regain control of Congress, a GOP takeover is going to be exponentially harder than it was in 1994. You’re never going to catch the Democrats as flatfooted again.
Why are so many conservatives hell-bent on cutting off their nose to spite their face? Are they really willing to throw away a decade’s worth of work and go back to square one?
We usually like looking at the Daily Kos crowd insisting for an immediate pullout of the troops or impeachment hearings right this second and we laugh at them for their ludicrously unrealistic expectations.
But apparently the Kos are not the only ones with an all-or-nothing mentality. Sometimes in life you have to use the West Coast offense, nickel and diming your way down the field instead of going for the long bomb. If I want a more conservative government, I get it by electing the more conservative of the two choices, even if he isn’t as conservative as I would like. I do not get it by sitting on the sidelines and pouting, and letting the less conservative guy take the reigns of power.
For this I get labeled a “bamboobzled [sic] boob” by the likes of Bill Quick. Yeah, I’m the unreasonable one.
And for all these "conservatives" who would like to sit out the mid-term elections, just see what happens if another SC opening becomes available and we don't control the Senate....
I live in CT, not much better, but a conservative enclave of CT.
"Another writer who is putting the cart before the horse.
Every action has a reaction.
GWB abandons base, base decide not to show up on election day. "
... and the result is the Congress becomes more LIBERAL, as every single Democrat is to the left of the corresponding Republican.
Jim G. is right, 100%.
BTW, the claim that Bush has 'abandoned base' is phony, we just got tax cut extention last week, for example.
Unless you are single-issue-border-closer, there is a lot for conservatives to be grateful for, and Jim is right to warn conservatives not to blow it.
The only Founders who are worthy of note regarding the economy and finance were George Washington, Robert Morse, Gouverneur Morse and Alexander Hamilton. The programs and policies they advocated: National Bank, financing the National Debt and a strong federal government would probably not be to your liking.
Another threat.
On the one hand some party firsters here are making the argument we're being led about by the nose by the MSM. That the MSM engineered this furor.
The next you come forward with the threat the MSM will project a different reality of the boycott in November.
So, what is it? Am I a lemming following the MSM off the cliff, or am I out of touch with the MSM's agenda while on my own divergent path?
Whatever, scare tactics don't work. Time you stopped being in denial about that.
You don't know? It is simple really.
Your argument that the GOP is the Party of the rich is typical of the Leftist lies spread by Vladimir Ilych and his friends in the Party of Treason.
In short:
On Immigration/Border: "C" - But I am hopeful on his speech tonight?
on the War: I support it.
on the NSA: Great job!... I support him and the new head of the CIA.. What a great chance for the Reps to FIGHT for him and show some spine
on Judges: BEST job of the Bush administration so far... ** A + ***, again, great chance for GOP to show spine on this one too with new batch of judges coming up
on the Economy: Great job!!!
on Social Issues: "B"
Get my point?
I look at it this way...
Would you rather have Bush and a Republican Congress who is willing to put through 30 - 40% of a Conservative agenda. (Perhaps another SC nominee.!?)
or
Would you rather have Bush and a Democratic Congress who will probably only end up putting through 5 - 10% of a Conservative agenda... (and of course the Democratic congress will be pushing for impeachment and investigations)
I have no intention of abandoning conservative Republicans this year.
I will certainly vote for Mike Steele for US Senate from Maryland, and will vote for whomever runs as the Republican from my congressional district (although my congressional district, like most in Maryland, is drawn to provide a seat to a Democrat).
However, the jury is still out on "moderate" Republican Gov. Ehrlich.
And of course, if the party were to lose its collective mind and nominate a liberal like Mr. Giuliani or Mr. Romney in 2008 for the presidency, then I would not vote for the Republican for president.
Perhaps you didn't read the part where I said I applauded the ultimate result.
That does not change the fact that the assault on Miers was unfair and unwarranted. And those higher poll numbers really made an impact on those howling at the moon now didn't they?
How can anyone actually say Bush has betrayed the conservatives when it comes to the immigration subject? Since he's been in office he's been pushing his policy of a guest worker program; he hasn't changed. Its been out there since he became President.
Thanks a lot!
Here I was trying ever so hard to show everyone that I knew everything.
The good part about this and discussions like this, on Free Republic, is that we can argue (ie:discuss) these topics, get it out of our system, and come election day, go into to the voting booth and do the right thing. ;)
"There is something bad broke in the system used by the Senate, in particular. Basically, once they get into office they are accountable to no one for 5 out of 6 years.
The silly traditions (rules) of the Senate are stacked against decision and solidly in favor of procrastination."
And thank GOD for that, or we would have had Hillary-care in 1994 ... and host of other Liberal programs along the way.
This was true in New Deal era, civil rights era, the whole time ... the Senate is slow. These traditions may be 'silly' but they are a useufl brake on democratic passions, which in the heat of the moment can lead us astray.
OTOH, we have seen since 1994 that the Senate stymies conservative advances. Not just conservative judges but conservative bills like ANWR drilling have been cut down in the senate.
The solution is not to undercut the new and thin GOP majority but to have patience and staying power.
40 years of GOP rule and we can get what we want eventually. Majority Leader Reid ... and we are back at square 0.
I believe Miss Miers gave it up rather than damage the President. He is the ultimate loyalist and it is very unlikely he threw her under the bus to satisfy the Lynch Mob.
Right on cue, James Dobson and Richard Viguerie, co-pontiffs of the hard Christian right, trotted out over the weekend to express their displeasure with the GOP Congress and the President.
This was a reprise of their 2002 and 2004 act.
IOW, they'll keep their faithful under the steeples in the midterms.
That they'll get nothing from the Democrats doesn't seem to concern them at all, which makes one wonder about their motives.
Hahahaha, a threat? Do you doubt it? If there is anything I can be certain of it is that the MSM will shape anything to their needs. Dontcha know Clinton wasn't elected because of Ross Perot, it was a "mandate for change". I wasn't just talking about this November, I was thinking a little further beyond that. Enjoy your self-indulgence.
More on that from the Presidents speach tonight..
Not a word will be spoken that enforcing the current laws ON EMPLOYERS would make the illegals slink back across the border ON THEIR OWN DIME.. Bush knows that too.. but not a word will be spoken.. I say add a law that renting to an illegal could cause legal problems for your property management company.. that would make it happen ever faster..
Not a word will be spoken on that.. Who OWNS Bush?.. Somebody does and its not his base.. What will 20+ million new democrats do for Hillary in 2008.. and 15% of them vote.. or more.. Heck in L.A. 500,000 showed up for a mere rally..
 Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House |
 John Conyers, Jr, Chairman, House Judiciary Committee |
 Tom Lantos, Chairman, House International Relations Committee |
 David R. Obey, Chairman, House Committee on Appropriations |
 John Dingell, Chairman House Energy and Commerce Committee |
 Chaplain for the US House of Representatives?? |
 Charles Rangel, Chairman, House Ways & Means Committee |
 Jane Harman, Chairman, House Intelligence Committee |
 BARNEY FRANK, Chairman, House Financial Services Committee |
 Henry Waxman - House Government Reform Committee |
 Patrick Kennedy, Chairman House Entertainment Committee |
 Chairperson, House Committee on Conspiracies |
 Harry Reid, President pro Tempore of the Senate, 3rd in Presidential line of succession. |
 Joseph Biden, Chairman, Senate Foreign Relations Committee |
 RUSSELL D. FEINGOLD, Chairman, Senate Judiciary Committee |
 Jay Rockefeller, Chairman, Senate Intelligence Committee |
 Robert C. Byrd, Chairman, Senate Appropriations Committee |
 John F. Kerry, Chairman US Senate Committee on Finance |
 Joe Liebermann, Chairman, Senate Homeland Security Committee |
 Chris Dodd, Chairman, Senate Rules and Administration Committee |
 Carl Levin, Chairman Senate Armed Services Committee |
 John McCain, some things will stay the same |
 Ted Kennedy, Chairman, Senate Committee on Immigration |
 President in Waiting. |
 First Man |
 Patrick Leahy, we’ll find him a job |
 Barbara Boxer, we’ll find her a job. |
 Senate Chaplain??? |
That is HYSTERICAL "swill" and is always pours forth from those trying to attack the President.
Uhm right, probably because the party that conservatives started has morphed into nothing more than a political whore.
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