Posted on 05/08/2006 9:56:25 AM PDT by santorumlite
Wyoming House Seat in Play
Survey of 500 Likely Voters
April 27, 2006
Election 2006
Wyoming House
Barbara Cubin (R) 47% Gary Trauner (D) 43% RasmussenReports.com
May 8, 2006--Wyoming, a state whose electoral votes George W. Bush captured by 40 percentage points in the 2004 presidential election, may grow a bit more blue this fall.
Not as a result of any change in the governor's seat, now held by a popular Democrat. Our survey shows Governor Dave Freudenthal leading Republican Ray Hunkins 52% to 29%.
Even GOP voters are roughly split between the two gubernatorial candidates. Freudenthal is viewed favorably by 73% of voters, Hunkins by 42% (nearly as many have no opinion of Hunkins).
The contested U.S. Senate seat will not likely change hands either. Senator Craig Thomas, a Republican, also seems to be gliding to reelection, with Thomas besting Democrat Dale Groutage 64% to 25% in our poll. Thomas is viewed favorably by 68% of likely voters, Groutage by 32% (nearly half have no opinion of Groutage).
The one interesting statewide race is the battle for Wyoming's seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Wyoming is one of seven sparsely-populated states which send only a single congressman to that chamber. Since 1942, with one exception, the state's Member-at-Large has been a Republican.
But Representative Barbara Cubin, first elected in 1994, now leads Democratic challenger Gary Trauner by only four percentage points, 47% to 43% and the GOP can hardly take her reelection for granted. This becomes one more contest to which the GOP may have to devote resources during an election year in which the party is proving especially vulnerable.
Congressional Quarterly has just revised its assessment of the seat from "safe" to "Republican favored."
Representative Cubin is viewed favorably by 49%, unfavorably by 47%. Trauner is viewed favorably by 34%, unfavorably by 28%. He's regarded as an unknown by 38%. Only 5% are Not Sure what to think of Cubin.
Conservatives crash and burn strategy isn't going to send a message to the gop it will turn the whole store over to pelosi. Stay home and have a pelosi democrat elected in wyoming. That will really show them.
Pelosi might get 250 house seats if districts like wyoming are in play.
Ping! The second poll that shows Cubin vulnerable, and this seat moves up to Lean R in my estimation.
Cubin's problems are personal and not partisan. She has become something of an embarrassment for past behavior and poor quotes, which got worse when someone on her staff decided to start leaking her lame jokes and inappropriate comments to Roll Call in 2001 or 2002.
If this seat becomes the Democrats' 218th in the House, she will have a lot of explaining to do.
ACU rating for Cubin: 97 lifetime; 96 in 2005; and 100 for 2004. Her rating is higher than either Enzi or Thomas.
"Conservatives crash and burn strategy isn't going to send a message to the gop it will turn the whole store over to pelosi. Stay home and have a pelosi democrat elected in wyoming. That will really show them. "
everytime i mention this people yell at me - well people stayed home or voted for Perot in 92 and look what that got us: AWB, a depleted military, insane AG, middle class tax increase etc etc etc
oh yeah staying home or voting for a third party Will really make it better
IOW, they're going to have to toss out some red meat before November.
Oh and George H. W. Bush is blameless. Do I recall something alone the lines of "no new taxes". He was an idiot and needed to be turned out.
She's always been vulnerable, she is a loose canon, per se.
Agreed. If she doesn't qualify as a Conservative, no one does.
Cubin's prone to gaffes and has never really caught on with Wyoming voters. She's "vulnerable" most years but so far always comes up a winner.
""no new taxes". He was an idiot and needed to be turned out."
agreed however i would have preferred to see him go down in the primary
obviously the man is not blameless i just saw the results of Clinton and cringe
Idiot is a bit harsh. His mistake was not making the "no new taxes" pledge but rather in compromising with the democrats and accepting a tax rate increase in 1990. He should have vetoed the tax increase with fanfare and announced at the veto ceremony "During the campaign, I told you that the democrats in the house would come back again and again asking for more taxes, and I told you that I would tell them 'Read my lips: no new taxes'. Today, just as I predicted during the campaign, the only answer the democrat congress has is to raise your taxes. And just as I promised, I am sending their tax increase back to them with my veto."
Had GHW Bush made that speech while vetoing the democrat tax increase, then: (1) he would probably have averted the recession that was brought on by the tax increase but which was over by the 92 election;
(2) clinton's "it's the economy, stupid" campaign would have been a bit more difficult to sell;
(3) GHWB would have had much more credibility as the trust-worthy candidate and a better contrast to slick willie;
(4) GHWB would have probably been a two-term president;
(5) The GOP might have had a true conservative standard-bearer in 1996 rather than Bob Dole, but he would have had to displace 2-term incumbant VP Dan Quayle to get the nod;
(6) The 2000 campaign environment would have been significantly different from what it was and W might not have been positioned to become the GOP nominee for President.
You would have preferred a Pat Buchanan candidacy? That might have been enough to give clinton a filibuster-proof democrat majority in the Senate.
Another thing to remember: For the most part, a Democrat in Wyoming would be a card-carrying Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy member in DC. There just aren't very many truly liberal politicians around here.
Posted on another thread of this article:
"I think she is so close because she promised to limit herself to six terms. She was elected in 1994. Therefore she is now running for her seventh term, breaking that pledge.
That may be why she's so close. Wyoming has always struck me as a "no-nonsense" type of state."
Man, don't you know? It's all those illegal immigrants! The GOP base is so, well, angry right now. The Rats need to take over so all those those RINOs learn a lesson. What this country really needs is two years of calling Nancy Pelosi Speaker and Harry Reid majority leader. Then comes Bush impeachment proceedings, repealing the war on terror, repealing the tax cuts, blocking further judicial nominations, and other unimportant stuff. After all, nothing really matters to the angry people except immigration.
"You would have preferred a Pat Buchanan candidacy"
lol no Pat strikes me as a bit unhinged particularly lately.
My point is this: i would have preferred Bush Sr. to have lost in a primary battle Rather than lose in a general election. If you are p.o.ed at a RINO for whatever reason vote him or her out in the primary. if you cannot do that and said Rino is the nominee compare that nominee to the opposition. If the opposition is the antithesis of what you stand for then back the person you are not thrilled with but at least have some commonality with.
Bad news ping.
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