Unless al-Qaeda has a Cray or a Blue Gene/L for simulation and testing, they would have to actually test a nuke, or overbuild and risk detection.
It is possible to spread nuclear material around, but that would be very localized, even if hidden in a conventional bomb.
But, you're free to inflate al-Qaeda's capabilities when the best they've been able to manage in the last year is to blow up a few subway cars in the London Underground.
You are so wrong. Artillery shells have been made, VERY small, that are 10kt and are simply Uranium 235 gun-type assemblies.
No fancy 'worn out parts', nothing. They didn't test Little Boy design for that reason, and most likely neither did South Africa when they had them. This is the real threat, a 10-20kt non-boosted U-235 gun assembly that can be made as small as an artillery shell.
You don't need a Cray for the simulation; Los Alamos did the calculations in the 1940's with teams of mathematicians and hand-cranked adding machines.
Full Disclosure: Yes I have worked extensively on Crays. :-)