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30 Republican House Seats in Jeopardy
Human Events ^ | April 24 2006 | John Gizzi

Posted on 04/24/2006 8:38:45 AM PDT by Reagan Man

With President Bush's popularity at an all-time low, hovering in the mid-30s in most national surveys, and the conservative base of the Republican Party increasingly dismayed with the President's performance on issues such as runaway government spending and immigration "reform," chances are increasing that the Democrats could eke out a majority in the House of Representatives in the elections this fall.

Four months ago, I concluded that there were 20 Republican House seats that were vulnerable to Democratic takeover, now I believe that there are 30. To achieve a majority, the Democrats would need to win a net gain of 15.

(The present makeup of the House is 232 Republicans, 200 Democrats, and one independent who votes with Democrats for control. There are also two vacancies -- the seat of former Republican Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham of California who was convicted of bribery and that of former New Jersey Democratic Rep. Robert Menendez, who was named to a U.S. Senate vacancy.)

"If the President's job rating is above 50%, his party tends to suffer only narrow losses or even, as in 1934 and 1998 -- and almost in 1962 -- makes gains," wrote veteran political prognosticator Michael Barone last week of midterm elections. "If the President's job rating is significantly under 50%, his party tends to lose lots of seats."

Bernadette Budde, who has been monitoring elections for the Business and Industry Political Action Committee for more than 30 years, told me two months ago that in the current political climate "the fickle finger of fate could point to upsets in a lot of districts the so-called experts are writing off as 'safe.'" At a breakfast two weeks ago, when I asked Budde whether the situation had gotten better or worse, she quickly replied: "Worse. The fickle finger of fate is now attached to a palsied brain."

Here is a summary of the 30 Republican House districts that have at least a fair chance of going Democratic in November:

Arizona's 5th and 8th: Republican former State House Whip Randy Graf, who drew 43% against veteran Rep. Jim Kolbe (R.-Ariz.) in the 2004 primary, is the likely GOP nominee for the Tucson-area 8th District seat Kolbe is relinquishing. But Graf's pro-life and anti-illegal immigration views do not sit well with old foe Kolbe and his allies, so the chances of Democratic State Sen. Gabriel Gifford's picking up the seat have improved. In the 5th District, the Democratic candidate, former Tempe Mayor Harry Mitchell, may give a tough fight to Republican Rep. J.D. Hayworth, who has broken with the Bush Administration on immigration.

California's 4th and 50th: Heightened publicity about the ties between Republican Rep. John Doolittle and his wife and convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff has put Doolittle's re-election to the 4th District seat in jeopardy. In the disgraced Cunningham's 50th District, Democrat Francine Busby topped the all-candidate field with 44% of the vote in the first voting round and is even money to win the special election over moderate former GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray in June.

Colorado's 7th: Republican Rep. Bob Beauprez narrowly won this suburban Denver district in the last two cycles. But with Beauprez running for governor, Democrats feel confident of picking up a district carried by Al Gore and John Kerry.

Connecticut's 2nd, 4th and 5th: Republican Rep. Rob Simmons has had difficult reelection runs since he won the 2nd District in the closest House race in the nation in 2000. Democrats scored well in recruiting former Westport First Selectman Diane Farrell to take on GOP Rep. Chris Shays in the 4th and State Sen. Christopher Murphy to oppose veteran Rep. Nancy Johnson in the 5th.

Florida's 22nd: Long-time Republican Rep. Clay Shaw, who beat lung cancer, has had stiff challenges in his last three campaigns and now faces Democratic State Sen. Ron Klein.

Illinois' 6th: With Republican Rep. Henry Hyde retiring from this suburban Chicago District, Democrats are waging a well-funded race against his protégé, State Sen. Pete Roskam. The candidacy of Iraqi War veteran Tammy Duckworth is generating nationwide Democratic funding and publicity.

Indiana's 2nd, 8th and 9th: Hoosier Democrats have major league contenders against GOP Representatives John Hostettler (8th) and Mike Sodrel (9th) in Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (8th) and former Rep. Baron Hill (9th). Two-term Republican Rep. Chris Chocola is still on the GOP "watch list" for the GOP in the South Bend-area 2nd District.

Iowa's 1st: Republicans in the Waterloo-Davenport district are increasingly worried that heated competition for nomination to succeed Rep. Jim Nussle (now the likely GOP candidate for governor) will benefit the probable Democratic candidate, 2004 nominee Bill Gluba.

Kentucky's 3rd: After 12 years in office, Republican Anne Northup is still a regular Democratic target in her Louisville district. This year, Democrats have an unusually strong nominee in Iraqi veteran Andrew Horne.

Minnesota's 6th: Democrat Patty Wetterling, who drew 45% of the vote against Republican Rep. Mark Kennedy here in 2004, has recently dropped from the Senate race for another run in the 6th, which Kennedy is leaving to run for the Senate himself. A districtwide convention next month will choose among four GOPers running to succeed Kennedy.

Nevada's 3rd: Two-term GOP Rep. Jon Porter is still a top Democratic target in his Las Vegas-area district and faces a strong challenge from former staffer for Sen. Harry Reid (D.) Tessa Haffen.

New Hampshire's 2nd: Democrats recruited well-known prosecutor Paul Hodes to oppose moderate GOP Rep. Charles Bass in this Concord-area district.

New Mexico's 1st and 2nd: Republican Representatives Heather Wilson in the1st District (Albuquerque) and Steve Pearce in the 2nd District (Roswell) are still major Democratic targets. Wilson, who always has tight races, faces an especially strong foe in State Atty. Gen. Patricia Madrid.

New York's 24th: With veteran liberal Republican Rep. Sherwood Boehlert retiring after 24 years, the GOP is likely to nominate conservative State Sen. Raymond Meier. Democrats smell victory in this now open district. Their first heavyweight nominee in recent years is likely to be Utica District Attorney Michael Arcuri.

North Carolina's 11th: National Democrats recruited onetime Washington Redskins quarterback Heath Shuler to take on GOP Rep. Charles Taylor.

Ohio's 1st, 15th and 18th: With major scandal surrounding statehouse Republicans, Democrats anticipate a bonanza year in the state that clinched re-election for George W. Bush. Democrats recruited top opponents to face Republican Representatives Steve Chabot (1st), Deborah Pryce (15th), and Bob Ney (18th). Ney is the most high-profile lawmaker linked to Jack Abramoff.

Pennsylvania's 6th, 8th and 10th: With GOP Sen. Rick Santorum trailing for re-election and Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell headed for a big re-election, Democrats have recruited strong contenders in marginal districts held by Republicans: Law Professor Lois Murphy against Rep. Jim Gerlach (6th) and Iraqi veteran Patrick Murphy against Rep. Michael Fitzpatrick (8th). The fate of GOP Rep. Don Sherwood (10th), who has admitted an extramarital affair, is uncertain.

Virginia's 2nd: Democratic Virginia Beach Commissioner of Revenue Phil Kellam, scion of one of his hometown's best-known families, is locked in a tight race with freshman GOP Rep. Thelma Drake.

Washington's 8th: In winning his first term in 2004, Republican Rep. David Reichert had an unusually close race in this suburban Seattle-based district. Democrats now have a well-funded candidate in former Microsoft executive Darcy Burner.


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 109th; 2006; congresselections; elections; gop; thelmadrake
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To: COEXERJ145
Another thread hijacking in progress by the border trolls.

Despite all of Jim's best intentions, FR has become an immigration website.

21 posted on 04/24/2006 8:51:27 AM PDT by sinkspur (Things are about to happen that will answer all your questions and solve all your problems.)
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To: stopem

Speaking of which, it was House GOP who are most responsible for coming up with 4437.

IF we are to lose one house ( a colossal IF), rather it be Senate than House. Lots of good GOP conservatives there.


22 posted on 04/24/2006 8:52:10 AM PDT by Killborn (Pres. Bush isn't Pres. Reagan. Then again, Pres. Regan isn't Pres. Washington. God bless them all.)
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To: roses of sharon

Honestly, every election its the same doom and gloom march of stories form the MSM and dems. They may win this next election, but regardless of how many damn stories they write, it will not be by default as they wish. The MSM thinks that if they write it, it is. Why hold the elections, the MSM already has the dems winning, ergo, its over. Believe those exit polls not the actual results, you know.

This article quotes Barone, but last time I saw him on Brit Hume he was predicting that the Republicans would likely lose seats, but not control of the house or senate. He based his predictions on actual tracking of each race.


23 posted on 04/24/2006 8:52:57 AM PDT by FlipWilson
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To: Owen

Amen. Between permanent border security and the total annihilation of the enemies with in, I will run, not walk, to the latter option.


24 posted on 04/24/2006 8:53:16 AM PDT by Killborn (Pres. Bush isn't Pres. Reagan. Then again, Pres. Regan isn't Pres. Washington. God bless them all.)
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To: Rakkasan1
we can go over the cliff at 30 MPH or 100 MPH, either way, looks like we're going.

Ain't that the truth.....

25 posted on 04/24/2006 8:53:35 AM PDT by Cold Heat
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To: Reagan Man

It is incredibly simple! Stop the leak! Close the borders. Nothing else is needed at this time! First stop the hemorrhaging; then deal with the internal problem later. That's all the American people want. Solve the problem with the illegals already here later. We've let it fester for years. We have got to protect our borders FIRST!


26 posted on 04/24/2006 8:54:11 AM PDT by olezip
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To: Reagan Man
Note to John Gizzi: Remember, all politics is LOCAL. Folks tend to hate Congress but they love their congressman.

True the 'Pubbies are on shaky ground for ignoring a secure border, but it really only matters in those states who share the border with Mexico. And those areas can be fiercely conservative. Those folks just know 100% that the RATS will unilaterally disarm them and truly leave them defenseless against the smugglers and the Mexican Federales.

27 posted on 04/24/2006 8:55:10 AM PDT by ExSoldier (Democracy is 2 wolves and a lamb voting on dinner. Liberty is a well armed lamb contesting the vote.)
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Comment #28 Removed by Moderator

To: Owen; OregonRepublican
Open your eyes and see something other than illegals.

I think you are replying to OregonRepublican...

[ready, fire, aim]

29 posted on 04/24/2006 8:55:31 AM PDT by Snardius (Registered and Certified IPW)
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To: sinkspur

Arizona's 5th and 8th: Republican former State House Whip Randy Graf, who drew 43% against veteran Rep. Jim Kolbe (R.-Ariz.) in the 2004 primary, is the likely GOP nominee for the Tucson-area 8th District seat Kolbe is relinquishing. But Graf's pro-life and anti-illegal immigration views do not sit well with old foe Kolbe and his allies, so the chances of Democratic State Sen. Gabriel Gifford's picking up the seat have improved. In the 5th District, the Democratic candidate, former Tempe Mayor Harry Mitchell, may give a tough fight to Republican Rep. J.D. Hayworth, who has broken with the Bush Administration on immigration.

Apparenly the idjits don't know about Arizona...Harry Mitchell's biggest clain to fame was attenpting to shut down Sky Harbor. And Kolbe's district is more conservative than just by differing between Rs and Ds


30 posted on 04/24/2006 8:55:39 AM PDT by kaktuskid
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To: Snardius

good whats the difference now? Pelosi will do the same as were doing now, big government open borders. Only thing that will change will be a D from an R


31 posted on 04/24/2006 8:56:42 AM PDT by OregonRepublican (Jesus Loves you Allah wants you dead! Liberalism is a mental Disorder- Savage)
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To: txrangerette
Speaker Pelosi, THIRD IN LINE TO THE PRESIDENCY.

Now just for fun, imagine Speaker Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Reid...and President Hillary Rodam Clinton.

32 posted on 04/24/2006 8:57:04 AM PDT by Snardius (Registered and Certified IPW)
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To: sinkspur

Another thread hijacking in progress by the border trolls.
Despite all of Jim's best intentions, FR has become an immigration website.


despite realities best efforts the bots keep their head in the sand and deny there is any problem at all


33 posted on 04/24/2006 8:57:30 AM PDT by jneesy (certified southern right wing hillbilly nutjob)
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To: Rakkasan1

and were suppose to fight for (R) when at the end of the day they are the same as the (D). Maybe they should impeach Bush so we can have Cheney... who may actually have a spine.


34 posted on 04/24/2006 8:58:02 AM PDT by OregonRepublican (Jesus Loves you Allah wants you dead! Liberalism is a mental Disorder- Savage)
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To: stopem

Your right on the mark. But I guess these dumb asses don't realize that their reelection depends on it.


35 posted on 04/24/2006 8:58:35 AM PDT by ANGGAPO (LayteGulfBeachClub)
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To: Reagan Man

If this guy considers Chabot's and Hayworth's seats "vulnerable," he's drinking coolaid. I don't even thing the Kolbe seat is in jeopardy. But this is what passes for analysis now, and why some people keep repeating the mantra that we'll "lose seats." I stick with my prediction: a gain of 1-5 seats in the House, 1-3 in the Senate.


36 posted on 04/24/2006 8:58:58 AM PDT by LS
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To: Snardius

what bigger government, more social programs? And Im suppose to cheer Bush on because he has an R next to his name. Sorry Im not a cheerleader for a liberal.


37 posted on 04/24/2006 8:59:21 AM PDT by OregonRepublican (Jesus Loves you Allah wants you dead! Liberalism is a mental Disorder- Savage)
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To: george wythe
"If the Democrats capture any of these Congress chambers, they will persecute Republicans and Bush loyalists to no end, with endless instigations and subpoena."

So if this is the fate of us, then we need to start a new American Insurgency here in the States until a new gov't can be formed and the freedom/liberty hating liberals will sue for peace or leave the country in droves.

Its for the children ....
38 posted on 04/24/2006 8:59:23 AM PDT by MaDeuce (Do it to them, before they do it to you! (MaDuce = M2HB .50 BMG))
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To: jneesy
despite realities best efforts the bots keep their head in the sand and deny there is any problem at all

Nobody denies there's a problem. The differences lie in the solutions proposed.

And, then, there are those of us who are just sick and tired of the whole thing.

39 posted on 04/24/2006 8:59:36 AM PDT by sinkspur (Things are about to happen that will answer all your questions and solve all your problems.)
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To: Reagan Man

All immigration all the time. Your post was about the election. The Rain Man brigade shows up as usual.


40 posted on 04/24/2006 9:01:18 AM PDT by Stentor
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