Posted on 04/23/2006 7:22:07 PM PDT by RWR8189
NOW THAT HE'S BACK IN the elections business, Karl Rove has a huge task on his hands: assuring strong Republican voter turnout. At the moment, Republicans are in a funk. And their dejected mood may presage a low turnout in the midterm election on November 7. Should a large number of Republican voters sit this one out, Republicans could lose control of one or both houses of Congress. It's when Republicans are either inspired or angry that they show up in large numbers and win elections. So Rove, along with Republican national chairman Ken Mehlman, has the job of shaping issues that will make Republicans angry or inspired, or both.
There's one big problem--two, actually. First, Rove's magic won't affect the biggest issues dogging the Bush presidency and causing Republicans to be disheartened: Iraq and rising gas prices. But the second problem--President Bush's sagging job approval among Republicans--is one that Rove can address by emphasizing policies that appeal to Republicans and by creating strong fears of a Democratic takeover.
Let's be clear about turnout. It matters enormously. The sweeping Republican defeat following Watergate in 1974 was only indirectly related to the scandal. The Democratic landslide was directly attributable to the diminished Republican turnout that resulted from Watergate-induced dejection among Republicans.
More recently, the turnout factor has been the single greatest influence on midterm elections. In 1990, 27.4 million Americans voted for Republican House candidates, and the party lost 8 seats. In 1994, however, the Republican turnout jumped to 36.3 million, and the party captured 52 House seats. It dipped in 1998 to 32 million, prompting a loss of 5 seats. But in 2002 it soared to 37 million, and Republicans won 8 House seats.
In presidential election years, jacking up turnout is relatively doable, as the Bush campaign showed in 2004. Presidential elections unleash "incredible energy," a senior Bush adviser says, and that generates volunteers, donors, a campaign infrastructure, and a flood of voters to the polls. "By definition there's less energy," says the adviser, in nonpresidential years--and less infrastructure for a national campaign. The "key" in these years, the adviser continues, is to make "your base as inspired as possible."
With the 2006 midterm election six months away, the Republican base is uninspired. In the Fox News poll in mid-April, only 66 percent of Republicans said they looked favorably on the Bush presidency. This is a disastrous number for Republicans. Of course, it wasn't as bad as the overall Bush rating of 33 percent, which included Democrats and independents.
Low job approval can have a double whammy effect. By itself, a 66 percent rating means that turnout by Republicans is likely to be low. In 2002 and 2004, when Republicans won House seats, Bush's approval among Republicans was 20 or more points higher.
The second effect is to cause further Republican disenchantment. Low poll numbers like 33 percent approval are bound to prompt some Republicans to feel they must separate themselves from Bush and join in criticizing him and Republicans in Congress. This, in turn, leads to lower turnout.
It's a vicious political cycle, but it's not the end of the world for Republicans. There's a lot Rove can do now that he's freed from the administrative duties that went with his old job as deputy chief of staff. He's back to his first-term job as the chief political strategist for Bush and the Republican party. And he has closer ties to the new chief of staff, Josh Bolten, than he did to Bolten's predecessor, Andy Card. He's in a position to invigorate Bush's message and rally Republicans.
A political adviser who works closely with Rove has developed a list of issues that Republicans should concentrate on to spur turnout. They aren't a big secret. Republicans can't survive by relying on incumbency, money, and attacks on Democrats. They need a positive agenda to stir the Republican base in general and conservatives in particular.
So at the top of his list is passage of a federal budget with at least minimal restraints on spending. Before the Easter recess, the House failed to pass one. Since spending curbs are important to conservatives, they'd better pass a budget soon. Republicans also need to stress the "culture of life" by noisily opposing abortion, cloning, and expanded federal subsidies for embryonic stem cell research. And they should push to make the Bush tax cuts permanent and propose serious health care legislation. If they do all this, Bush's support among Republicans should rise and so should his overall approval rating.
But what about Iraq and gas prices? Here, Bush needs help from outside events. Since early 2005, his presidency has been beset not only by Iraq and gas prices but by other outside events, including Hurricane Katrina and the Dubai ports deal. Now, a Republican official says, "it would help to have an outside situation that we could take advantage of."
A permanent, elected government in Iraq might be one, especially if it leads to fewer bombings and further reductions in American casualties by this summer. A break in gas prices is unlikely, but stranger things have happened. It would help. And Democrats may foolishly contribute by making themselves more vulnerable than ever to attacks of the type that Rove is adept at organizing.
The old football saying about winning applies to turnout in 2006. It's not everything. It's the only thing. For Bush and Republicans, turnout is destiny.
Fred Barnes is executive editor of The Weekly Standard and author of Rebel-in-Chief (Crown Forum).
I agree completely.
"But what about Iraq and gas prices? Here, Bush needs help from outside events. Since early 2005, his presidency has been beset not only by Iraq and gas prices but by other outside events, including Hurricane Katrina and the Dubai ports deal. Now, a Republican official says, "it would help to have an outside situation that we could take advantage of."
Heaven helps those who help themselves.
Bush should come out swinging at the Eco-nuts and at Congress for not moving his energy program.
He should also kick Rove's butt around the White House over his "Guest Worker" nonesense - unless, of course, it was his own idea.
A "the democrats are satan" message is not the message the party needs. We should be heading into the election touting over a decade of great accomplishments. Instead,... we are up a creek without a paddle.
I sure hope things change rapidly. So many republicans are just not getting it.
The Rats selling out our Country for power is going to get me to the polls not the Republicans selling out their base cause their clueless.
They have only themselves to blame.
This conservative won't be going to the polls in November to vote for any candidates that support amnesty when it comes up for a vote. I'd rather stay home. I will be voting for any Republican that supports an "enforcement first" approach.
No habla ingles.
Nope. But it does still have a "stab a conservative back" feature.
Immigration "reform" is killing Bush among the Republican base and Fred hasn't got a clue. Good grief. He truly is a Beltway Boy.
I think this is a good strategy so Rove can focus on the disgruntled conservatives in the flock that are at wits end. We have a lot of dispirited sprinters in this marathon.
Gas prices are God's gift to the GOP. This is an issue that anyone can understand. When we cuss "environmentalists" for stopping all drilling, refinery construction, power plant construction, nuke plants of any kind, pipelines, even windfarms for crying out loud, they even oppose windfarms...
In every case we are talking about Democrats and DNC proxies. We are talking about the nutjobs who make up the Democratic Party. People have to be told that until they turn these people out of office in large numbers we will never have secure energy supplies.
When your enemies are blaming you for something they themselves have caused, it isn't enough to sit and hope people will see through it. Believe me, my Uncle Harry isn't that smart, he thinks oil, he thinks Republicans, and he thinks they are to blame. Sit silent in the face of the irrational and it is as good as an admission of guilt.
You have to come out fighting, and push it right back at them. I promise it will energize the "faithful", because they are waiting for someone with a little grit to step forward into the fray. It would be nice if it was the president.
Fred does not mention immigration because he's about as much out of touch as the GOP. Fred propably thinks that right before the election, the GOP will throw a few bones to conservatives and they will turn out in droves.
Fred, u need to get out the beltway more often.
Count me out if McCain runs.
Will finally someone come forward and call a spade a spade.
Democrats laugh all the way to the polls for having choked off oil and natural gas exploration, refinery construction, and now point blame at Republicans.
Will the Bush administration muster the guts and say so, regardless of media howls about global warming.
IOW, how could we fool them again?
Your own personal illegal to do the summer jobs your kids can't find...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.