My prediction:
Nagin 34%
Landrieu 24%
Forman 23%
Couhig 11%
All others: 8%
In the runoff, Nagin will get 52%.
You locals in or near NOLA have a good time at it but I can hardly give a hoot about an election such as this one. Whatever happens will very likely result in the same old race-baiting claims by the race pimps. Quite frankly I think that Katrina did do some cleansing in NOLA and now is the city's greatest opportunity but I don't think it will come about. Transforming the power structure was essential but it won't happen.