I've been saying for some time now that I believe that we will pick up seats in both the House and Senate this fall, not lose them. I base this in part on just being a contrarian, always inclined to go against the conventional wisdom just because it is the conventional wisdom (and I'm right more than I'm wrong when I do that). I also base this in a belief that there are Republicans who get the point you are making. We get the "Bush is bad" RINOs plastered all over the MSM and think that is the dominant portion of the Republicans in the race. Those who get it and say so are caricatured as NAZIs and racists.
But then you have performances like Newt Gingrich's on Fox News Sunday today. He was hitting on all cylinders. I kept thinking that the White House should hire him as their Congressional liaison or as the strategy person for the fall elections. He gets it. And he's not alone.
I think you've encapsulated the issue here very well. I personally have faith that President Bush, on a fundamental level, gets it as well. I'm hoping the president will come out specifically emphasizing the border security portion of immigration reform after Congress gets back to town and push for a commitment to the broader reform dealing with those already here, perhaps by providing a sunset provision to the law, in order to separate the emotional from the necessary. It would blow the Democrats out of the water and it would start what I think would be an unstoppable march to victory in November.
Maybe you think this because all the polling data is the foundation of all this "Analysis". And, all the polling data has been statistically manipulated to gernerate this result. There is NO intellectually honest reason for the Media polls to switch to polling 38D, 27R 35I Adults over 18. To start with 50-55% of them will not vote.In addition, based on the last national election, the result should be 40-40-20 with the Ind split 10% Leans D, Leans R. This is junk polling. Completely unsound methodology. And ALL the "Political Analysis" is based on the junk numbers. Bush is suffering completely natural 2nd termers fatigue. But it seems to be an across the board phenom. Funny thing. See the local numbers? Everyone HATES pols, except their own guy. Only 16 out of 100 Senators have approval numbers under 50%. That is NOT an electorate in the mood to make wide ranging changes in Congress