Posted on 04/13/2006 9:03:57 AM PDT by NormsRevenge
NORTH COUNTY ---- Even before Brian Bilbray appeared to clinch a narrow victory Tuesday over 13 other Republican rivals to run against Democrat Francine Busby in eight short weeks to replace disgraced former Congressman Randy "Duke" Cunningham, supporters called on the field to "unite" behind Bilbray's candidacy.
But a day later, it appeared that unity could be slow in coming.
Eric Roach, Bilbray's nearest Republican rival, said Wednesday through campaign managers that he might ask for a recount of votes cast in the sprawling 50th District ---- a move that would delay Republican solidarity in the weeks of campaigning left before June 6.
"Right now, our focus is to wait for the 10,000 or so provisional and absentee ballots left to be counted, and determine if a recount is necessary," Roach spokesman Stan Devereux said.
The 50th District covers much of North County, stretching from Escondido south to Del Mar.
On Wednesday morning, with nearly 100 percent of the votes counted, Bilbray had apparently eked out a narrow victory over Roach, with 15.15 percent of the vote, to Roach's 14.46 percent.
Busby, meanwhile, garnered 43.92 percent of the vote in what she called a testament to her push to clean up corruption in Congress.
But because she did not earn more than half the votes, Busby will be forced into a runoff against the Republican candidate, presumably Bilbray, on June 6. She said Wednesday that she welcomes the upcoming fight against Bilbray, a Washington lobbyist.
Bilbray said the fight against Busby would be easier if Republicans stick together.
"The only way the Democrats can win is if the Republicans turn on each other," Bilbray said Tuesday night, after he appeared to clinch a victory.
Roach said Wednesday that he was thinking about calling for a recount, and was waiting to see how close the remaining uncounted votes would bring him to Bilbray. Devereux said that if Bilbray's lead dwindled to less than half a percentage point, Roach could ask for a recount. As of Wednesday morning, Bilbray led Roach by .69 percent.
San Diego County Registrar of Voters Mikel Haas said Wednesday that he estimated there were approximately 9,000 provisional and absentee ballots left to count, that nearly all would be counted by the end of today, and that the rest would be completed quickly.
However, a hand recount of more than 130,000 votes ---- which would have to be counted precinct by precinct from the 445 precincts ---- could take a long time, Haas said.
Haas said that anyone could ask the county to conduct a recount of any election, and the county would do it. But, Haas said, the person or group requesting the recount would have to pay for the work. He said that could amount to "thousands of dollars a day," depending upon how many county election workers were hired to handle the recount, and how long it took.
Roach, a millionaire investor, has spent roughly $2 million of his own money on his campaign so far.
A review of the tally suggests that, if the current numbers from Tuesday's election hold up, and if Bilbray needs a united Republican front, losing Roach's support could undo his candidacy.
Add Roach's votes and those of the other 13 Republican candidates to Bilbray's, and the GOP percentage of the vote would come to 56.08 percent ---- enough to comfortably defeat Busby's 43.92 percent.
Subtract Roach's 14.46 percent, and Bilbray's support would drop to 41.62 percent, a slice that would lose to Busby's current percentage.
Haas said that even though Roach has appeared to lose the Republican nomination in the special election, he could still enter the June 6 runoff as a write-in candidate.
Meanwhile, there were other signs Tuesday and Wednesday that Republican hopes for a united front behind Bilbray could prove difficult to forge.
Former Assemblyman Howard Kaloogian, who finished a distant fourth with 7.4 percent of Tuesday's vote, declined to return repeated calls Wednesday to determine if he would throw his support to Bilbray.
And Republican leaders and supporters tried unsuccessfully several times at Tuesday night's celebration to get all 14 candidates to join each another on stage.
Ron Nehring, chairman of the Republican Party of San Diego County, said Wednesday that he didn't think the candidates needed to unite behind Bilbray for him to beat Busby.
Nehring said that those who cast votes for losing conservative Republican contenders such as Kaloogian, state Sen. Bill Morrow, R-Oceanside, and Alan Uke were not going to turn around in June and vote for Busby, even if Republican support was divided.
"Voters will make their own choices ... they're not all of a sudden going to vote for a liberal Democrat."
Jonathan Collegio, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, agreed with Nehring's assessment.
But he also said the national party expects the other candidates to unite behind Bilbray.
"I can tell you on the record that all Republican candidates should line up behind the winner," he said. "The (committee) believes that all of them should stand behind the candidate who was elected."
The rat will not win there. The 50th CD will NOT elect a rat. PERIOD!
The Donks can pull this off if the GOP base stays at home for the election. If the GOP doesn't unite the base in this district the GOP could lose the seat through apathy... putting us all closer to having to utter these dreaded words "Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi".
Only Republicans eat their own! How about the rule in Congress that calls for anyone indicted to step down (Rat's do not have the same rule), hence, they (Rat's) can pick off our leaders.
The rat wouldn't win in a normal election here but the runoff won't be normal.
San Diego county gave Busby a great gift by having the runoff occur when there is a contested dem primary race for governor where tens of millions is being spent. That will draw out democratic votes for busby.
Arnold meanwhile has no primary opponent so that won't help turn out gop voters.
Also all those same gop candidates will be on the ballot for the primary for the november special election. If one of them decides to challange bilbray for the november election that could further hurt bilbray.
I said it at the time the decision to have the runoff during the june 6th primary will give busby a huge advantage and might make her congresswoman busby.
Duke had to retire a few weeks earlier so the county and arnold would have had no option of scheduling on that date.
If the runoff would occur on any other date all those dem primary voters wouldn't come out for just busby. Some will be coming out for the dem primary race and that could put busby over the top.
Bilbray's congressional record is a hair to the right of his Democrat rival's views which says very little for him.
I hope someone else can emerge in the June primary for the next term.
Hey, feel lucky you're not in the Bay Area, I can't think of one rep even approaching conservative status, much less moderate.
I agree re; the prmary. Sad to say but Duke dorked everyone with his reckless disregard for his office and oath and now all his constitutents will end up paying for it.
Yes.
If so, then Bilbray could win the special and lose the primary, making him an instant lame duck.
Exactly.
12 of the 14 Special Election candidates (R) also qualified for the June primary and WILL be on the ballot. IMO, folks should show "unity" for Bilbray during the runoff (to finish Cunninham's current term) but unify around ONE of the conservative candidates for the June primary.
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