Posted on 04/12/2006 5:48:59 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
The Republican Party's choice to replace jailed former Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham remained up in the air Wednesday, with the two leading candidates separated by less than 900 votes and neither side claiming outright victory.
With 100 percent of the precincts counted, lobbyist and former GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray had 19,366 votes or 15 percent of the vote in California's 50th District. Eric Roach, a venture capitalist who poured at least $1.8 million of his own money into the race, trailed with 18,486 votes or 14 percent.
County officials said 10,000 last-minute absentee and provisional ballots were being tallied, with updated results expected Thursday afternoon.
The Republican nominee will face a June runoff against Democrat Francine Busby, who advanced easily with 44 percent of the vote to lead all 18 candidates on the ballot. The winner of the June runoff will finish the final eight months of Cunningham's term - and immediately begin campaigning for November.
Cunningham represented the wealthy coastal district for 12 years before he resigned in disgrace late last year. He was sentenced in March to more than eight years in prison for accepting $2.4 million in bribes.
Tuesday's special election was closely watched in Washington as a bellwether for the upcoming November midterm elections.
Bilbray dubbed himself the "presumptive nominee" Wednesday and launched a campaign against Busby with a series of haggard-but-happy morning appearances on local TV news broadcasts.
Roach, a political neophyte who was attacked during the campaign as a "mystery man," stayed out of sight Wednesday, shunning reporters he last spoke to halfway through the count Tuesday night.
Local and national GOP leaders rallied behind Bilbray. Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman said the former San Diego-area congressman had the party's full support.
Roach, however, was unwilling to concede, and his campaign staff floated the possibility of a re-count.
"We are waiting for those final 10,000 votes to be counted," said Roach spokesman Stan Devereux. "Then we'll see if a recount is necessary."
Devereux didn't rule out the possibility that Roach might attempt a write-in campaign in the June runoff if he finishes behind Bilbray.
Election-weary San Diegans, who make up nearly half of the district, have already seen their share of disputed elections and political corruption.
Maverick City Councilwoman Donna Frye's write-in bid for mayor in 2004 outpolled incumbent Dick Murphy, but a judge gave Murphy the victory when he tossed out more than 5,500 ballots on which voters wrote Frye's name but failed to darken the adjoining bubble. Murphy then resigned seven months into his second term amid a widening federal investigation into the city's deficit-ridden pension fund.
Busby, a local school board member who lost to Cunningham in 2004, touted herself as the candidate of change and said she was prepared to face whichever Republican emerged as the eventual victor.
"Either one of them will represent more of the same of the leadership we've seen in Congress," she said.
All that needs to happen is a small percentage of the GOP Conservative base to simply NOT vote for either Busby or Bilbray and Busby gets the special. I don't think it's an impossibility.
Bilbray might get some "RINO's" and independents who voted for Kerry, to offset the red meaters funk. Cheer up. But yes, the June election will be tight.
This race is over. I'm not aware of any precedent (in House races) for voters punishing someone of the same party as the disgraced former members. Resignations by vulnerable members save seats. Not the other way around, as some in the media might portray.
Bilbray is a fairly solid conservative on most issues, yet earns the endorsement of SD's lesbian D.A. People from outside this area of the world must think that odd, but our version of "conservatism" can be a little harder to pigeonhole. I contend that Bilbray is a better fit for this district than a 100% "red meater".
The race for the gop slot for the special is over. The race as to whether the Pubbies hold the seat is by no means over. It remain in the "lean GOP" column. Anything safer than that is wishful thinking in my opinion. There are too many variables hanging out there.
Clearly.
10,000 absentee ballots -- out of those, Roach would have to finish 10 percent ahead of Bilbray to win.
Roach's campaign got something of a late start -- do you suppose that the Mormon effect might kick in here?
No. Mormons don't do things at the last moment (they are organized), in general, and the idea out of 3000 of so ballots, Roach could beat Bilbray 2-1, when the rest of the absentees were evenly split, is ludicrous.
For ONE district in a special election?
I beg to differ.
ANYTHING is possible, but I'm in agreement with you.
That would be true if this were an even remotely competitive seat. It's not. As I noted previously, Bill Simon beat Gray Davis in that district by over 18%. And in the Recall Arnold and Tom McClintock together beat Bustamante by about 55% (75%- 20.3%).
This is a very, very strong GOP seat.
FYI: San Diego's lesbian DA is a Republican.
Exactly why I'm planning to skip the run-off to finished Duke's term in June. I don't like Bilbray (never have) and Roach is yet another candidate in SD politics trying to buy a seat at the table like Issa, Navarro and others before.
I'll give you one, since we were discussing it today... NY US Rep. James Hastings (R) in 1976 resigned ahead of a criminal conviction. 'Rat Stan Lundine took the special election and remained in that GOP seat for the next decade before becoming Mario Cuomo's Lieutenant-Governor.
Ah, and how could I forget the most audacious example recently ? SD-At Large. Bill Janklow, the treacherous manslaughtering RINO, resigned upon his criminal conviction and was replaced with a 'Rat, Steph Herseth.
Good memory, but the fact is, that a resigned chap who is disgraced, does not affect the partisan politics for the replacement much. However, this time, sleeze is a national issue, so maybe things are different. If there are, it will be marginal, but at the margins are where elections are won or lost, in seats where it can make a difference.
too bad she isn't also black and Jewish.
But that was case of a more popular challenger winning, not the incumbent party being punished.
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