Posted on 04/12/2006 5:48:59 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
The Republican Party's choice to replace jailed former Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham remained up in the air Wednesday, with the two leading candidates separated by less than 900 votes and neither side claiming outright victory.
With 100 percent of the precincts counted, lobbyist and former GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray had 19,366 votes or 15 percent of the vote in California's 50th District. Eric Roach, a venture capitalist who poured at least $1.8 million of his own money into the race, trailed with 18,486 votes or 14 percent.
County officials said 10,000 last-minute absentee and provisional ballots were being tallied, with updated results expected Thursday afternoon.
The Republican nominee will face a June runoff against Democrat Francine Busby, who advanced easily with 44 percent of the vote to lead all 18 candidates on the ballot. The winner of the June runoff will finish the final eight months of Cunningham's term - and immediately begin campaigning for November.
Cunningham represented the wealthy coastal district for 12 years before he resigned in disgrace late last year. He was sentenced in March to more than eight years in prison for accepting $2.4 million in bribes.
Tuesday's special election was closely watched in Washington as a bellwether for the upcoming November midterm elections.
Bilbray dubbed himself the "presumptive nominee" Wednesday and launched a campaign against Busby with a series of haggard-but-happy morning appearances on local TV news broadcasts.
Roach, a political neophyte who was attacked during the campaign as a "mystery man," stayed out of sight Wednesday, shunning reporters he last spoke to halfway through the count Tuesday night.
Local and national GOP leaders rallied behind Bilbray. Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman said the former San Diego-area congressman had the party's full support.
Roach, however, was unwilling to concede, and his campaign staff floated the possibility of a re-count.
"We are waiting for those final 10,000 votes to be counted," said Roach spokesman Stan Devereux. "Then we'll see if a recount is necessary."
Devereux didn't rule out the possibility that Roach might attempt a write-in campaign in the June runoff if he finishes behind Bilbray.
Election-weary San Diegans, who make up nearly half of the district, have already seen their share of disputed elections and political corruption.
Maverick City Councilwoman Donna Frye's write-in bid for mayor in 2004 outpolled incumbent Dick Murphy, but a judge gave Murphy the victory when he tossed out more than 5,500 ballots on which voters wrote Frye's name but failed to darken the adjoining bubble. Murphy then resigned seven months into his second term amid a widening federal investigation into the city's deficit-ridden pension fund.
Busby, a local school board member who lost to Cunningham in 2004, touted herself as the candidate of change and said she was prepared to face whichever Republican emerged as the eventual victor.
"Either one of them will represent more of the same of the leadership we've seen in Congress," she said.
Brian Bilbray PING!
Ya never know.
10,000 last-minute absentee and provisional ballots were being tallied
ALL the votes should have been counted by now.
I hear ya,, 10,000?
fyi
What the hell is going on?
One by one by hand?
Cripes...lol.
Hmmm...so it's not QUITE set yet?
How do they know for sure that the GOP nominee in the special election runoff will also win the primary election?
Devereux didn't rule out the possibility that Roach might attempt a write-in campaign in the June runoff if he finishes behind Bilbray.
Why bother with a write-in? If the writer, Allison Hoffman, had taken the time to check the Secretary of State's website here, she would have seen that Roach is among the 12 GOP candidates qualified for the Primary. All 12, plus 2 other Republicans, ran yesterday.
Maverick City Councilwoman Donna Frye's write-in bid for mayor in 2004 outpolled incumbent Dick Murphy, but a judge gave Murphy the victory when he tossed out more than 5,500 ballots on which voters wrote Frye's name but failed to darken the adjoining bubble.
Distortion. Frye tried to be a write-in candidate in a runoff election. She exhorted people to fill in the bubble and write in her name. She knew a voter's intent cannot be divined if they don't bother to mark the bubble. Also, what's the point of holding a runoff if new candidates can run in the runoff without competing (or spending money) in the first election?
What is more worrisome is the the candidates who didn't win this primary will still be on the ballot for the regular primary on June 6. So whoever won this primary (probably Brian Bilbray) will still be subject to negative ads by his Republican primary opponents.
This gives Francine Busby an opportunity she normally wouldn't have.
Fourteen Republicans. Whatta political party!!
The dem gets 44% and the highest finisher of the 14 Republicans gets 15%.
That has got to inspire great confidence in the minds of the party in California.
For provisional ballots, definitely one-by-one, because they need to check the provisional voters' eligibility before the votes can be counted.
My concern now, despite the overall turnout for the GOP, is that there are going to be a number of voters whom will simply refuse to vote for the RINO Bilbray. His mindset and ideology are a SMALL percentage of the GOP base in this district.
It may be best, alas, to urge Kaloogian, Morrow, and the other trailing Conservative Republicans to endorse Roach in the upcoming primary. Bilbray for the short, Roach for the long. Short term RINO pain for long-term Conservative gain.
Have you ever sat through absentee and provisional ballot processing? It will take several days at a minimum.
Not in this district. Bilbray can afford to take some pounding at the sidelines. No Democrat can win in this seat.
Don't worry about that. Even if the very worst were to happen June 6th (which it can't). She would only serve from June 7th until the House adjourns this year, since the winner of the June primary will face her ALONE in November and beat her then.
If the house is close this fall, this seat won't be one of the turnovers. It will ALWAYS go REP in November.
Keep your eye on the ball.
Howard Kaloogian and Bill Morrow have worked the political trenches for years. Such people are normally loathe to support a wealthy newcomer whom they regard as a dilletante with too much time on his hands.
Each late absentee ballot must have its signature and eligibility verified, and the handful of provisional ballots the same. That takes time. But the result will not change. Roach and Bilbray got 29% of the vote between them, and assuming they get about the same share of the remaining ballots between them, that is 2900 votes (i.e., 29% of 10,000 ballots (if all are legit, which they won't be). That means that Roach needs to get 65.2% of those 2900 ballots to take the lead. That isn't going to happen. As I said, it's over.
That's right. They cannot withdraw their names.
So whoever won this primary (probably Brian Bilbray) will still be subject to negative ads by his Republican primary opponents.
This gives Francine Busby an opportunity she normally wouldn't have.
Hopefully some candidates with lower percentages will endorse Roach or Bilbray for the Primary, thus keeping the campaign cleaner, but even if it's a dirty campaign I really doubt Busby can pick up any significant number of Republican votes, especially because most non-Bilbray votes were for more conservative candidates (Roach, Kaloogian, Morrow, etc.).
True, but there is yet another factor which hasn't been discussed. Democrats have a spirited primary for Governor and most of the downballot state offices. By contrast, the GOP only has a few competitive statewide primaries, none of them high-profile.
That means that registered Democrats will be more motivated to vote in the June 6 primary.
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