Posted on 04/12/2006 12:45:38 PM PDT by george wythe
California Democrat Francine Busby's first-place showing in Round 1 of Tuesday's special congressional race may give her party a jolt of optimism in its quest to retake the House in November.
But come the June 6 runoff, analysts say, reality will set in: The seat she seeks to occupy, the one vacated by the now-imprisoned Randy "Duke" Cunningham (R), represents a strong Republican district and the odds are steep against her in a two-person race against a Republican. The GOP has a 15-point registration advantage in the San Diego district. In at least the past 40 years, the Democrats have never defeated a Republican in a district with more than about a four-point GOP registration advantage, says Gary Jacobson, a political scientist at the University of California, San Diego.
Still, Democrats remain energized about November, when every House seat is up for election, and they seek to wipe out a 15-seat Republican margin of control and then some. Only about 35 of the 435 races are competitive, so there's little room for error. Privately, some GOP political handicappers, in a race-by-race assessment, predict that the Democrats will pull it off, as the national mood toward President Bush and the Republican-ruled Congress sours further.
(Excerpt) Read more at csmonitor.com ...
All I have to say to the Democrats, "Don't count your chickens before they hatch."
Republicans 53%
Democrats 46%
Considering how Republicans have been acting, spending, and fence-sitting of late, I'd say they have good reason to be giddy about taking the House back. We left Bush I hanging on the line when he sold us out. We'll likely do it again this fall. I don't want to, but I think it's gonna happen.
And the Detroit Lions eye a Super Bowl title.
I agree!
More wet dreams for the Democrats..
They can eye all they want. I eye scarlet Johansen doesn't mean I will "gain" anything.
Is a passport required to enter their planet?
In Arizona, Representative Hayworth faces his first serious opponent since 1998 in the person of Harry Mitchell, who was a popular mayor of Tempe for 16 years and then, until recently, a state senator. Senator Mitchell jumped into the race only in late March, but as a seasoned politician, is seen as a threat.I seriously doubt.
It seems that the liberal writers are becoming victims of the 10-2 Theory... they tend to to believe their own regurgitated BS
There were 14 Republicans running, and they split the vote.
Is this another antic by the CA Republican Party to impress me?
Aside from the top few vote getters, what is going on with somebody that KNOWS they haven't any chance?
Swelled up egos. Big mouths. Shrunken brains.
Give me back the smokey back rooms, FWIW.
Linda Feldmann needs to be drug-tested.
Yup, the Republicans better wake up and do something about the border hemmoraging or I, for one, will change my party to Constitution and may stay home on election day.
Might as well have all Democrats, the Republicans are acting just like them.
Democrat or Democrat-lite.
Some choice.
I know I'm not motivated to head out to the polls come NOV.
This is the House we're talking about. The House is on the right side of the issue, regarding the Fence. ITs the Senate Republicans that is disappointing the base
And don't count your Hatches before he chickens.
I call them the "Irwin Allen Media". He's the guy who directed a bunch of disaster films in the 70's.
The long spate of bad news for Republicans - from indictments in Congress and the White House to a stalled agenda to the Iraq war - has sparked aggressive Democratic recruitment of candidates and fundraising.Intensity of feeling also favors Democrats. There's little danger that droves of Republicans will vote Democratic, but there is a danger that Republicans will stay home in numbers large enough to swing some contests
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