LIVE THREAD - 50TH CD SPECIAL ELECTION RESULTS - 18 Vie for Vacant House Seat in Ca.

SAN DIEGO - Eighteen candidates in a solidly GOP district on the Southern California coast competed in a special election Tuesday for the congressional seat once held by Randy "Duke" Cunningham, now in prison for bribery.

Brian Bilbray, a former congressman-turned-lobbyist who was the choice of the GOP establishment; Republican businessman Eric Roach, who spent $1.8 million of his own money; and Democrat Francine Busby were considered the front-runners.

Cunningham represented the House district from 1993 until he resigned in disgrace late last year. In March, the former Vietnam War fighter ace was sentenced to more than eight years in federal prison for taking $2.4 million in bribes from defense contractors.

Tuesday's race had a wide-open ballot, with 14 Republicans, two Democrats, one Libertarian and one independent. If no one got more than 50 percent of the vote, the top finisher from each party would compete in a runoff June 6.

The winner will serve out the remaining eight months of Cunningham's term, and will almost certainly try to hold on to the seat come November.

If no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote, the top finisher from each party competes in a June 6 contest, the same day as the primary for the midterm congressional elections.

An outright winner Tuesday or, more likely, the winner of the June contest takes a seat in Congress for the remaining eight months of Cunningham's term — and likely immediately begins campaigning to hold on to the seat come November.

With the GOP field crowded, Democrats hoped that Busby, who ran and lost to Cunningham in 2004, could score an upset, a prospect that her own campaign acknowledged was unlikely.

Voters faced an onslaught of negative campaign mailers and TV ads in the final hours before heading to the polls.

Bilbray, a surfer and one-time lifeguard, was attacked in a mailer from the California Republican Assembly, a grass-roots conservative group, that called Bilbray "a Democrat posing as a Republican."

The Bilbray campaign attacked Roach as a mystery man trying to buy an election. "His political campaign ads and mailers are everywhere. But until a few months ago, no one had ever heard of him," Bilbray's mailer said.

Former state Assemblyman Howard Kaloogian's campaign attempted to recover from an embarrassing misstep. Internet bloggers discovered that photos on his campaign Web site purportedly showing a tranquil Iraqi street scene had been taken in Istanbul, Turkey. The photos were removed.

With the GOP field busy attacking itself, national Republicans poured some $300,000 during the campaign's final week into TV ads criticizing Busby for accepting donations from lobbyists. A mailer from national Republicans claimed that the school board member and self-described soccer mom had voted to lay off teachers in 2003.

Busby retaliated by noting that Cunningham had given $2,000 of his campaign funds to national Republicans before he headed off to prison.

I was exaggerating for affect. She's probably going to win by about the same margin just as Boxer did back in 2004. Turn out will really depend on the governor's race: will GOP stay home rather than vote for Arnold, will Dems come out in force to toss Arnold out? That could sway Feinstein's margin of victory over Mountjoy to even larger proportions.

Jones was a disaster. He didn't use his own money contrary to his promise in the primary, he was an ineffective speaker and had angered many Republicans / conservatives 1. by withdrawing his endorsement of W to endorse McCain in 2000 and 2. by authoring a huge tax increase as a legislator.

Found it! Well, that's a very good point, and considering the early returns it does suggest Bilbray's on track to win. The way I'd figured it was that Bilbray was generally regarded as the 'moderate' choice, while Roach and Kaloogian were the more conservative options, and that since Kaloogian seemed like a flop, in a very fractured primary I thought Roach would then pull it out.

But then, I did think to myself that Bilbray was easily the most prominent 'moderate' whereas Roach & Kaloogian were splitting the more conservative vote, so that favored Bilbray. I still thought Roach would pull it out though, in part because of the money he spent too.

Democrat early leader in special election to fill Cunningham seat

By ALLISON HOFFMAN - ap

http://www.bakersfield.com/119/story/45682.html

A school board member running for Congress led in early results Tuesday of a special election to fill the unfinished term of former Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham, now in prison for bribery.

Democrat Francine Busby moved a step closer to the congressional office she first sought in 2004, when she lost badly to Cunningham. But the self-described soccer mom appeared to fall short of the majority she would need to stage an upset in California's 50th District, where Republicans outnumber Democrats 3-to-2.

In absentee voting, Busby had 27,332 votes, or 42 percent, to lead all 18 candidates in the nonpartisan, all-on-the-ballot format.

The two GOP front-runners were locked in a tight race. Lobbyist and former Rep. Brian Bilbray had a slight lead with 9,159 votes, or 14 percent, while Eric Roach, a political newcomer who spent $1.8 million on his own campaign, had 9,011 votes, or 14 percent.

If no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote, the top finisher from each party competes in a June 6 contest for the eight months remaining on Cunningham's term - and then immediately begins campaigning for the November election.

Cunningham had represented the district from 1993 until he resigned in disgrace late last year. In March, he was sentenced to more than eight years in federal prison on charges of evading taxes and accepting $2.4 million in bribes from defense contractors.

"Career politicians are the ones ruining everything," said Juanita Velasco, a 55-year-old Democrat from Del Mar who voted for Roach. "They just keep writing the checks and we keep footing the bills."

John Towers, a 51-year-old Republican who also voted for Roach, said he felt betrayed not only by Cunningham, but by the policies of the Bush administration. "I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of Republicans are so disgusted they just stay home," said the college math instructor from Cardiff.

Turnout did appear especially light. Voters were scarce at a sampling of polling places in the wealthy coastal district Tuesday morning. Volunteers at a polling place in San Diego's Del Mar Heights neighborhood reported only 16 people had voted by lunchtime.

The campaign had turned sharply negative in the week before the election.

Bilbray, a surfer and one-time lifeguard, was attacked in a mailer from the California Republican Assembly, a grass-roots conservative group, that called him "a Democrat posing as a Republican." The Bilbray campaign attacked Roach as a mystery man trying to buy an election.

Former state Assemblyman Howard Kaloogian trailed with 4,824 or 7 percent of the vote. His campaign had struggled to regain its footing after bloggers discovered an embarrassing photo mix-up on Kaloogian's campaign Web site. Photos purportedly taken during Kaloogian's visit to Iraq of a tranquil Baghdad street scene had been taken in Istanbul, Turkey.

National Republicans poured some $300,000 during the campaign's final week into TV ads and mailers criticizing Busby for accepting donations from lobbyists and for voting to lay off teachers in 2003. Busby retaliated by noting that Cunningham had given $2,000 of his campaign funds to national Republicans before he headed off to prison.

Bilbray wasn't the "moderate" choice.

He was the best choice-in my opinion-and the only rational choice for the GOP, if it has any hope of winning this open seat, retaining control of Congress, and-God willing-derailing this amnesty abomination.

A gifted former congressman, with impeccable credentials on the subject of illegal immigration, and-from what I've read-an environmental record that will even appeal to the wastoids that would ordinarily pull the lever for a moonbat like Busby.

The people who are agitating against Brian Bilbray are the same individuals who castigated Pete Wilson.

If Pete Wilson had been our nominee in 1996 we wouldn't even be debating whether or not to retroactively ratify the criminal actions of 12-20 million illegal aliens.

We would be discussing the merits of a second term for his anti-illegal immigration, sonservative, Republican successor.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.