Post numbr 45.
Found it! Well, that's a very good point, and considering the early returns it does suggest Bilbray's on track to win. The way I'd figured it was that Bilbray was generally regarded as the 'moderate' choice, while Roach and Kaloogian were the more conservative options, and that since Kaloogian seemed like a flop, in a very fractured primary I thought Roach would then pull it out.
But then, I did think to myself that Bilbray was easily the most prominent 'moderate' whereas Roach & Kaloogian were splitting the more conservative vote, so that favored Bilbray. I still thought Roach would pull it out though, in part because of the money he spent too.