U.S. arms industry eager to gain foothold in India

WASHINGTON, April 11: U.S. companies are rushing to step up sales of fighter jets and other weapons to India even as the Bush administration struggles to convince Congress to back a landmark civilian nuclear energy deal with India.

"By any standards, this is an attractive market," said Rick Kirkland, a senior executive with No. 1 U.S. defense contractor Lockheed Martin Corp., and a frequent visitor to India since 1993, citing the sheer size of the Indian armed forces.

U.S. defense contractors are clearly eager to "get in on the ground floor of the Indian defense market," said Alan Tonelson at the U.S. Business and Industry Council, adding that the nuclear deal had energized efforts that had been under way for some time.

But analysts and executives say the drive to expand arms sales to India remains complicated by concerns about proliferation; the impact on China; whether growing ties with India could alienate Pakistan, a key ally in the global war on terror; and cumbersome U.S. export regulations.

Indeed, Indian Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran on Saturday warned a decision by U.S. lawmakers to block the nuclear deal could hurt warming U.S.-India ties.

Defense analysts and industry executives said failure to approve the nuclear deal could dampen India's appetite for U.S. weapons but was unlikely to throw U.S. firms completely out of the running to supply new fighters or ships.

Kirkland said U.S. companies saw promising opportunities in India, particularly given New Delhi's growing interest in using Western arms to replace some of the ships, fighter jets and other weapons that it has bought from Russia for decades.

This week, Lockheed executives will fly to New Delhi to deliver in person a bid to replace India's current fleet of Russian-made long-range maritime reconnaissance aircraft with upgraded surplus U.S. Navy P-3 aircraft, a deal that could be worth up to $700 million, Kirkland said.

He said working on that bid had taught Lockheed officials a great deal about the way India buys weapons.

Other competitors for that program include Chicago-based Boeing Co. and Europe's EADS, but nearly all top U.S. defense contractors are pursuing strategies to get a firm foothold in the Indian defense market.

One senior executive with Northrop Grumman Corp. said his company was in discussions with Indian officials about their plans to expand their coastal fleet. Bush's nuclear deal with India has "opened a lot of doors," said the executive.

One of the biggest competitions involves India's plan to buy up to 126 new multi-role fighter jets, a contest analysts value at $10 billion. Lockheed is pitching its F-16 fighter jet against Boeing's F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fighter.

Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Kohler, who heads the Pentagon's Defense Security Cooperation Agency and has visited India four times in the last two years, calls working with the Indian military a "very, very important piece" of the U.S. strategy.

Loren Thompson, defense analyst with the Virginia-based Lexington Institute, said billions of dollars of defense contracts could be up for grabs in India in the next decade.

"This could be a significant opportunity for the U.S. defense sector," he said, although he cautioned that India still faces some budgetary constraints, and U.S. officials and lawmakers remain concerned about the effect of improving U.S.-Indian ties on Washington's relationship with Pakistan.

"The simple reality is that many of the weapons India might be inclined to buy could be used against Pakistan," he said.

Washington has said it will sell Pakistan advanced fighter jets, but the market is not quite as lucrative, analysts said.

Lockheed just signed a reconnaissance plane deal with Pakistan that could be worth $250 million, Kirkland said.

John Hillen, a top State Department official, last month highlighted the importance of the U.S.-Indian relationship, comparing President George W. Bush's nuclear agreement with India to Washington's opening to China in the 1970s.

But he said more work was needed to speed up approvals for export licenses and streamline U.S. laws regulating exports of sensitive national security or so-call dual use equipment. Otherwise, U.S. companies could risk losing out on big Indian contracts.

Defense industry executives welcomed his remarks but said turning those words into action was critical.

"The devil will be in the details," said Richard Aboulafia, analyst with the Virginia-based Teal Group.

Kirkland said one key issue would be helping Indian officials understand the importance of assessing the cost of operating and maintaining a weapons system over its life, as opposed to just the initial purchasing cost.

But he said his company's talks with Indian officials about the issue were going well. "The willingness and openness to discuss very tough issues is there on both parts," he said.

Russian junk? Based on what? Highly trained American pilots in state-of-the-art warfighters and backed with the best air-support in the world (eg AWACS) destroying obsolete monkey-model Russian-made Iraqi jets flown by inept pilots who are not smart enough to go AWOL when facing the USAF? Honed Israeli pilots with some of the most stringent training in the world facing Syrian pilots who spent more time milking goats than in training and flighttime (and anyways were probably pilots in the first place due to political/family connections).

While I agree that American weaponry is without a doubt the very best in the world, I wouldn't call what the Russians have offered to India (especially to India) junk. Particularly if you are basing the performance of inept pilots from third-world nations like Iraq flying against the most dominant aerial power in history (the USAF).

Now, let the Indian airforce go to war against the Pakistani airforce. The results will be different. For one the Indians will have more aircraft, secondly they will have better aircraft, plus they will also have far better battlefield awareness (especially with the Phalcon systems); and this will be one situation where Russian made aircraft (eg the SU-30MKIs) will shoot down US made aircraft (the F-16s we had given to Pakistan). It wouldn't even be a fight.

Anyways, I hope the Indians opt for the Superhornet (and that they get the AESA radar thrown in ....and for them to go for the SHornet the AESA will HAVE to be thrown into the mix). Whatever their decision though, the only Russian junk the Indians have are those Mig-21 'flying-coffins' they have. The more recent stuff they have gotten, particularly the SU-30MKI, is far from junk. Is it a F-22A Raptor? Heck no! But Pakistan is not flying Raptors now, and the Indian airforce is not going to be trying to take down the USAF.

Anyways, what India has been getting recently from Russia is not junk. And once you add the various 'custom jobs' that have been done (eg having Israeli and French avionics and other modifications) you have a result that is top in tha region. Then add to this significant TOT (transfer of technology) and it is an even sweeter deal for India (and Indian industry). Not a bad mix for 'junk,' especially when it gives you an edge over Pakistan that is nigh ridiculous.

Were are talking Indian piolets having to up against Chinese ones. The Chinese also have SU-30 MKK's, MiG 29's, Su-37's and domestics. India needs platforms that can defeat these, and the F-15 and F/A-18 can do that.

First of all the most advanced Flanker version that the Chinese have in service is the SU-30MKK (read: They do not have the Su-37 ....whether you mean the SU-37 Terminator technology demonstrator or the SU/S-37 Berkut forward-swept wing technology demonstrator). And by the way the Indian SU-30MKI is far more advanced than the Chinese MKK ......actually for all intents and purposes the Indian MKI is actually better than the SU-37 Terminator you were mentioning (in that it has the 3D vectoring nozzles, the advanced avionics, plus instead of purely Russian avionics it has a mix of Western/Israeli suites). The MKI is better than the MKK. Significantly.

Secondly the state of affairs between the Indian and Chinese airforces is one of 'quality leading to quantity' versus 'quantity leading to quality.' The Indians have an approach where they get highly advanced aircraft and then try to add numbers later (for example the SU-30MKI), while the Chinese have gone for a quantity first then progressive quality approach (for example where they started with loads of J-11s, which are basically licensed SU-27 Flankers, and then they went for the advanced SU-30MKK, and they are still developing their systems). The two nations have very different approaches to their aircraft acquisitions, but the MKI is still better than anything the Chinese have in the air at present. With that said the Chinese have enough good stuff to saturate the Indians, but that is another story.

Anyways, the main reason I posted the initial post is because you said that the Indians had 'junk' and needed something 'decent.' That is simply not the case, and what the Indians have, quality wise, is simply put the very best in that region. The MKI can also defeat anything the Pakistanis put up (and do it while the Pakistani assets are still in Pakistani airspace), and they can defeat anything the Chinese have (although the problem with the Chinese is the overwhelming numbers).

BTW I believe the Indians should (and probably will) go for the F/A-18E/F due to the AESA radar (as some Indian freeper said in another thread they will probably go for a split deal .....half Superhornets, and half for another Russian/European fighter).

But saying what the Indians have is junk is simply not accurate. An Indian SU-30MKI flown by an Indian pilot with Indian air assets against Pakistani pilots in an F-16A with no real BVR capability is VERY different from an inept Iraqi pilot in a monkey-model MiG-29 going against a supremely trained USAF pilot flying a F-16C with great BVR capability and AWACS support. You may think the Indian stuff is junk, but the Pakistanis and the Chinese do not.

MKI stands for 'Modernized Commercial Indiski' meaning it is for India, while MKK is 'Modernized Commercial Kitei' with Kitei being China. The Chinese are not getting the MKI (to do that it would have to get the airframe from Russia that has things like 3D-TVC, and then get the other upgrades from other nations like Israel's Iraeli Aircraft Industry. If China does all of that then it can say it has a MKI-like plane). As for the SU-37 acquisition I am EXTREMELY interested where you got that. The reason is that there were only 2 flying protoypes of the Terminator that were made, and that project was finally cancelled due to lack of funds (although several of its technologies were put into India's SU-30MKI ...you know, that 'junk' plane). Thus if you have a source on China getting Terminators I will be very interested to know what it is.

Currently the main fighter the Chinese are releasing right now is the J-10 (with the proposed export version to Pakistan being the F-10), and it is roughly comparable to a F-16. China is also working on a more advanced version of the J-10 (called the Super 10), but that is still on paper. And then there is the proposed Chinese 'super fighter' that, according to them, is supposed to go against our F22 and JSF (I call that wishful thinking). That is the JX(X), and although the internet is full of pretty pictures it is still in developmental stages.

Anyways, if you have a source for China getting 'MKIs and SU-37s' I would be very interested in it.

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