My take is that at present the GOP has a good shot to take one Dem Senate seat, with Maryland, New Jersey and Minnesota in play, as an offset to GOP losses. Pennsylvania will go Dem, and probably Montana too, despite all the noise about illicit sex, etc., and Burns having a primary opponent. Montana isn't Utah or Idaho. Ohio bounces in and out of real trouble, depending on the poll you read. But I just can't quite see why Dewine will be bounced.
I believe MN will be our best shot, especially since it has not been averse to electing Republicans to the Senate since 1978 (I believe had Rod Grams been able to match Dayton dollar for dollar, he might've been able to retain his seat back in 2000). NJ may be the second-most likely if Kean remains ostensibly competitive. It has not elected a Republican since 1972. MD may be the third-most in the bunch, last electing a Senate Republican in 1980 (though Mac Mathias was so leftist, as was Clifford Case, that they were de facto Democrats), but the question remains there which 'Rat gets the nod (probably Cardin), and the likely voter fraud the 'Rat legislature has given the thumbs-up to (as was voiced by Gov. Ehrlich).
I would've agreed with you on PA going 'Rat, but I think that Casey, Jr. is springing major-league leaks in his campaign and peaked months too soon. If the election were held now, Casey would win, but I think Santorum is starting to right his campaign. I think Burns will lose narrowly in MT even in the absence of REAL substantive proof of wrongdoing, I still wish he would step aside. I still believe MT is basically a GOP-leaning state that is overrepresented by Democrats (the legislature was deliberately gerrymandered by Democrats in control of the redistricting process to obtain a majority that is fraudulent).
DeWine will probably hold on in OH, but it's hard to overstate the damage the establishment GOP has done to the state and the genuine anger by the electorate there. It will be interesting to see if we manage to retain all the statewide offices as we have for, what, 12 years ?
Also, not mentioned is Michigan. I believe we're going to capture the governorship and may have a similarly strong Senate candidate (which unfortunately won't be Rev. Keith Butler, who truly got shafted by Liddy Dole). The horrid Stabenow is going to rue the day she stood next to a sign reading "Dangerously Incompetent."
I'm not touching FL with a 10-foot pole, lest certain individuals flip out, but you and I are on the same page where that contest is concerned.
DeWine only won this seat with 53.4% in the GOP tsunami election of 1994 as the sitting Lt. Gov. against a 2nd tier opponent. In his 2000 reelection he only took 60.1% against a real estate broker.. There is a general consensus that Ohio has shifted toward the Dems since 2000, and even more so since the 1994 midterms.
Furthermore, the scandal-wracked Ohio GOP has plunged to its lowest approval ratings in recent memory. This implies an in-state Dem wave on top of a likely national Dem wave. Wave elections generally happen primarily when the losing party's voters stay home. There is much to suggest that will be the case amongst Republicans in Ohio in November.
And therefore, coming around full circle to the above, it is quite likely that GOP turnout need be depressed merely 3.5% - a modest dip that would actually be little more than removing the uptick of the past two elections, and this actually by comparison to the even more powerful GOP showing of 1994 - in order for DeWine to lose. All else being equal.
Do you see it now?
FWIW, I just redid my Senate ratings tonight.
Safe Democratic
California
Delaware
Hawaii
Massachusetts
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota
Wisconsin
Likely Democratic
Connecticut
Florida
Nebraska
Vermont (I)*
West Virginia
Lean Democratic
Maryland*
Michigan
Minnesota*
Pennsylvania (R)
Washington
Toss Up
Missouri (R)
Montana (R)
New Jersey (D)*
Ohio (R)
Lean Republican
Rhode Island
Tennessee*
Likely Republican
Arizona
Nevada
Virginia
Safe Republican
Indiana
Maine
Mississippi
Texas
Utah
Wyoming