Posted on 04/06/2006 8:36:17 PM PDT by LdSentinal
TRENTON, N.J. - Republican Tom Kean Jr. can thank New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine's unpopular budget proposals for his slight edge over Democrat Robert Menendez in the 2006 U.S. Senate race, according to a poll released Thursday.
A Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll gives Kean Jr., a state senator, a 42-38 percent lead over Menendez, who was appointed by Corzine to serve out the remaining year of his U.S. Senate term.
Last month, Menendez led Kean by five points in a PublicMind poll, 42-37 percent.
Poll director Peter Woolley said that right now voters' preferences for the candidates are being driven by news events.
"Last month, Sen. Menendez got wide and positive exposure for his opposition to the Dubai Ports World taking over the facility in Newark," Woolley said. "This month, Tom Kean has the opportunity to respond to the governor's unpopular budget proposals affecting taxes and spending."
In a PublicMind poll released Tuesday, 36 percent of voters disapproved of Corzine's job performance, compared to 16 percent in a poll taken March 8.
The record $30.9 billion budget Corzine proposed on March 21 includes provisions for increasing and expanding the sales tax, raising taxes on cigarettes and liquor, cutting funding to higher education, and funding schools and towns at last year's levels, likely prompting local property tax hikes.
Democratic strategist Rick Thigpen said Thursday's poll suggests that Menendez is "being punished by certain segments of the electorate for the governor's proposed budget."
Republican strategist Mark Campbell said Corzine's budget, in which he broke several campaign promises, sent a message to voters that New Jersey Democrats don't keep their word.
"As property taxes in New Jersey are going up, Bob Menendez is going down," Campbell said.
The poll released Thursday also indicated that Kean Jr.'s name recognition has increased, up by 10 points to 72 percent, compared to 62 percent last month. Kean Jr. is the son of former Republican Gov. Thomas Kean.
Menendez's name recognition remained even at 63 percent.
The poll of 685 registered voters was conducted by telephone from March 27 to April 2 and has a sampling error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Rick Santorum has narrowed Bob Casey's lead, though it's still uphill.
As for Montant, I still hold out hope that Bob Keenan will win the primary, especially if Burns is indicted.
About Roger Jepsen:
His tenure in the Senate was one misstep after another. The only thing about his Senate career that was distinguished was his appearance.
Both Pawlenty and Kennedy will win in Minnesota. We will win on the issue of taxes... they are climbing, and there is a property tax revolt underway.
There is no better issue for Republicans, coast-to-coast, than taxes.
Pawlenty can go to the voters and remind them that he killed a succession of Democratic-led income tax increases.
Virginia will tighten because the RATS are determined to throw the kitchen sink at Allen. Won't work, but they are terrified of his presidential appeal in 2008.
Good point, but Amy Kublochar and Ford Bell are not members of the legislature and can't be tied directly to those tax increases.
Mark Kennedy needs to concentrate on rural Minnesota to offset losses in the close-up Minneapolis suburbs.
The more Kennedy becomes known, the more likely his election. He's smart, he knows the state and would not have made this leap at substantial risk to his career. And he'll have a tremendous war chest.
Agreed. It has to be better than putting Corzine's crony Menendez in a senate seat.
Well, hey, in the case of Brown, he at least won statewide twice. In the case of a certain candidate in FL, she only won once, so a statewide referendum on her performance following her profile being raised to national proportions was never held. Of course, Brown was similarly rebuked on his 3rd run. I think he's basically too leftist for statewide office, anyhow. I don't think OH wants another Metzenbaum.
Was Jepsen that bad ? I know that his approval rating was still unusually high (near 60%). He surely wasn't as bad as the other Senator defeated that year across the river in IL, the notoriously liberal anti-Zionist RINO, Chuck Percy (Paul Simon's defeat of him was rather similar to Lieberman's defeat of Lowell Wackjob in CT 4 years later).
we have been saying this all along - the deeper Corzine dives, the better chance Kean has. I hope Corzine taxes toilet paper. let's just hope Kean knows he must capitalize on this - or he loses.
I think sometimes even if they register a decent 50%+ approval rating, if their opponent's approvals are even higher, it can still spell defeat. Even Ma Richards in TX had, IIRC, approval ratings in the mid 50s going into the '94 election and still lost (remember, it was Lawton Chiles who had disappointing ratings in FL and Jeb and not Dubya was the one expected to upset the incumbent -- of course had Jeb won and Dubya lost, he'd be the President today, and Dubya would be finishing up his 2nd term as TX Governor).
If Kean had more money he could end the race right now. This is a lot like the New York Mayoral Race of 2005. Moderate Republican running against an unpopular liberal Democrat. In the mayoral race, Bloomberg and Ferrer polled similary with a large undecided, then Bloomberg uleashed his wallet and built an insurmountable lead.
A slight lead by a NJ Republican in a race for the U.S. Senate plus $3.15 will get you one Starbucks Grande Latte. It is not likely to get you an office in Washington.
Unfortunately, as it stands now, and thanks entirely to Taft, we may lose the OH Governorship despite having one of the greatest candidates to run in many, many years.
depends....
Let's see who gets out of the primaries first. Nothing like having the Democrats attempt to tie Blackwell (when he wins the primary) to Taft heheheh :)
Should make for interesting times. And I think the Ohio GOP will mostly get behind Blackwell if/when he wins the primary too. As much as the Ohio GOP would LOVE for Petro to be the candidate, they will come into the tent for Blackwell against the Dems I think.
By November, they will punch the name with a D next to it.
Well, I think we've known for some time this is going to be Blackwell v. Strickland. You have a lot more faith that the establishment will get behind Blackwell than I do. State parties have been known to sandbag excellent candidates because they threaten to change the status quo. IL and NJ come perfectly to mind.
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