Posted on 04/04/2006 10:58:31 PM PDT by Wiz
CAIRO, Egypt - Iran has unveiled with great fanfare a series of what it portrays as sophisticated, homegrown weapons — flying boats and missiles invisible to radar, torpedoes too fast to elude.
But experts said Tuesday it appears much of the technology came from Russia and questioned Iran's claims about the weapons' capabilities.
Still, the armaments, tested during war games by some 17,000 Revolutionary Guards in the Persian Gulf, send what may be Iran's real message: its increased ability to hit oil tankers if tension with America turns to outright confrontation.
To underline that message, the maneuvers — code-named "The Great Prophet" — have been held since Friday around the Strait of Hormuz, the 34-mile-wide entrance to the Gulf through which about two-fifths of the world's oil supplies pass.
Throughout the war games, Iran has touted what it calls technological leaps in its weapons production. In recent years, Iran revved up its arms programs after long relying on purchases abroad to keep up its aging arsenal, hampered by U.S. sanctions and Washington's pressure on other countries against selling weapons to Tehran.
The head of the Revolutionary Guards, Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, proclaimed Tuesday that Iran was now able to defend itself against "any extra-regional invasion."
It was a clear reference to Iranian worries of potential U.S. military action to stop its nuclear program, which Washington claims is intended to produce nuclear weapons. Iran says it aims only to generate electricity, but has so far defied U.N. Security Council demands that it give up key parts of its program.
The new weapons, many of them shown on Iranian state TV during their tests, have come with impressive claims:
• A missile, the Fajr-3, that is invisible to radar and able to strike several targets with multiple warheads.
• A high-speed torpedo, the Hoot, able to move at some 223 mph, up to four times faster than a normal torpedo, and fired by ships cloaked to radar.
• A surface-to-sea missile, the Kowsar, with remote-control and searching systems that cannot be scrambled.
• A "super-modern flying boat," undetectable by radar and able to launch missiles with precise targeting while skimming low over the surface of the water at a top speed of 100 nautical mph.
There are questions over Iran's claims. In Washington, Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman said "the Iranians have been known to boast and exaggerate" their weapons capabilities.
And some experts cast doubt on just how radar-evading Iran's ships and missiles are.
Iran's radars are not as advanced as those of Israel, for example — meaning that perhaps the weapons can avoid the radar that Iran has access to, but not more advanced types, said Meir Javedanfar, an Iranian-born, Israel-based analyst.
"The question here is, what radar did they test their own weapons against? If it's the radar they've been using for all these years, then that's not saying 100 percent that these things are undetectable," he said.
Others questioned if Iran developed the weapons on its own.
The Hoot torpedo — the name means "whale" — closely resembles the Russian-made VA-111 Shkval, the world's fastest known underwater missile, developed in 1995, said Ruslan Pukhov of Moscow's Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies.
The Shkval attains high speeds by coating itself in a cocoon of air bubbles, reducing friction, and Pukhov said its technology was too sophisticated for the Iranians to produce themselves.
"Hypothetically, they could get access to the Shkval technology, but if so, I don't think they got it through Russian channels," he said.
Pukhov noted the former Soviet republic of Kyrgyzstan once had a Soviet torpedo testing center on the remote mountain lake of Issyk-Kul. And he said that in the turmoil that followed the Soviet breakup, Kyrgyz authorities sold Shkvals to the Chinese, a major importer of Iranian oil.
Kanybek Tabaldiyev, a senior official with a Kyrgyz company that makes torpedo and other military hardware at Issyk-Kul, denied his company transferred sophisticated technology to Iran. He said it was possible weaponry had been acquired through other means.
Chinese officials had no immediate comment on whether their country provided Iran with Shkvals.
China has been pursuing closer relations with Tehran in hopes of help in meeting its energy needs, and the United States has sanctioned Chinese companies in the past, accusing them of violating international controls on transfers of weapons technology to Iran. Beijing has protested the U.S. sanctions and in 2003, it issued its first regulations controlling exports of missile, nuclear and biological weapons technology.
Whatever the Iranian armaments' capabilities — or origins — they likely won't greatly affect the military balance of power in the Gulf, where the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet is based, operating out of the island nation of Bahrain.
For example, the Hoot torpedo — if indeed based on the Shkval — has too short a range, about 7,500 yards, to be militarily significant, said Pavel Felgenhauer, a Russian analyst.
But Iran may be aiming to show the world, and its people, that it has options if the standoff over its nuclear program escalates. That could boost its hand in negotiations with the United States and Europe.
"They know they are inferior to the U.S. Navy in the Persian Gulf, so this is their way of telling Americans .... we are not the only ones who would lose out if talks regarding the nuclear program fail," Javedanfar said.
The torpedo tests in particular are significant, he said.
"They know that if you sink one tanker in the Strait of Hormuz you can stop all shipping there, because the waters are quite shallow," he said.
____
Associated Press reporters Mike Eckel in Moscow, Kadyr Toktogulov in Kyrgyzstan, Steve Weizman in Jerusalem and Audra Ang in Beijing contributed to this report.
ping
Yea yea yea, blah blah blah. And I've got a thermonuclear weapon in my basement. Better not mess with me, 'cause I'll get the shields up, and turn the cloak on, and then it'll be time to go back cryin' to mama. And now I declare sovereign republic of Farlanderia. And I want a front row seat at the UN. So I can heckle the US ambassador by playing Michael Bolton CDs when he speaks.
The Iranian's # 1 priority in any war gaming scenario I've ever seen is to close the Straits of Hormuz. I'm pretty sure we've got a game plan to prevent that but it's possible they could do it if they pre empted us by starting a war themselves with that as their first priority.
Well, it's late, I've had wine, and Iranians are always good for a laugh.
Thank you sir. Not to worry - the humor I decided to keep. Sanity retention tool. :)
For example, the Hoot torpedo — if indeed based on the Shkval — has too short a range, about 7,500 yards, to be militarily significant, said Pavel Felgenhauer, a Russian analyst. ==
Oh my God FElgenhauer again:). When you stop listening this idiot:).
Iran is obviously running in Spin Mode on their military.
A real important issue they have been totally silent on so far is their air power, which seems to be about zero. More importanly, even if they have some fancy hardware, it is no good unless it is well aimed, which is impossible if you don't have the ability to see from the sky. Seems to me the Iranians have big holes in their strategery.
(The holes will be even bigger after the first wave gets done blinding any radars they have turned on.)
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/doc/HotNews.html#69920
Moscow court prolongs ex-nuclear minister's arrest till June 8
RIA NOVOSTI. April 5, 2006, 4:23 PM
MOSCOW, April 5 (RIA Novosti) - A Moscow court extended Wednesday the arrest of a former nuclear power minister of Russia, Yevgeny Adamov, arrest until June 8.
The Basmanny Court said Adamov should remain in custody because he stood accused of a being a member of a criminal gang and was facing more than two years in prison.
Adamov said the ruling to extend his custody was typical of the Basmanny Court, which has been accused by some of ruling in favor of prosecutors and had earlier remanded him in custody.
"Today the court had a chance to ruin its [negative] image but it failed to use it," the former minister said.
The Russian Prosecutor General's Office officially charged Adamov, 66, with embezzlement and abuse of office December 31 in the presence of his lawyers after a long battle to secure his extradition from Switzerland, where he had been arrested at the request of the U.S. in May.
The U.S. authorities accused Adamov, who served as nuclear power minister in 1998-2001, of misappropriating $9 million granted to Russia for nuclear safety projects. He faced 60 years in prison if convicted.
On October 3, the Swiss Federal Justice Department announced it would extradite the former Russian minister to the U.S., but Adamov's defense team filed an appeal with the Federal Tribunal, Switzerland's Supreme Court, in Lausanne in November. On December 22, the Lausanne court upheld the appeal and ruled that the ex-minister be extradited to Russia because the country submitted its extradition request first.
Russia Unaware of Ukraine’s Nuclear Supplies to Iran
http://www.mosnews.com/news/2006/04/03/noukriran.shtml
Russia’s General Staff has no information on Ukraine’s nuclear supplies to Iran, the head of the General Staff said Monday.
Army General Yuri Baluyevsky was quoted by RIA-Novosti news agency as saying he had no information on 250 nuclear warheads Ukraine had allegedly passed to Iran.
“I do not comment on such reports, which have no foundation,” Baluyevsky said.
Novaya Gazeta newspaper wrote Monday that Ukraine had failed to return 250 warheads to Russia in the 1990s when the former Soviet republic declared itself a nuclear-free zone. The paper suggested the warheads could have been sold to a third country, including Iran.
Former top official of Russia’s Defense Ministry Yevgeny Maslin quoted by Interfax news agency refuted the information regarding “lost” warheads. He called such reports “nonsense caused by the journalists’ hunt for a cheap sensation.” “All the nuclear ammunition that was in the Ukraine before the collapse of the USSR was removed to Russia.” The ministry directorate led by Maslin was in charge of nuclear ammunition safety during the period when it was passed from Ukraine to Russia. He said he had personally controlled the ammunition removal.
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