Posted on 04/01/2006 6:48:30 PM PST by blam
Mass graves planned if bird flu pandemic reaches Britain
By Adam Stones
(Filed: 02/04/2006)
Mass burials are being considered by the Home Office as part of contingency plans for a possible avian flu pandemic.
A "prudent worst case" assessment suggested that 320,000 could die in Britain if the H5N1 virus mutated into a form contagious between humans, according to a confidential report.
The paper - said to have been discussed by a Cabinet committee - said that the huge number of deaths would lead to delays of up to 17 weeks in burying or cremating victims. It warned that the prospect of "common burial" would stir up images of the mass pits used to bury victims of the Great Plague in 1665.
"It might involve a large number of coffins buried in the same place at the same time, in such a way that allowed for individual graves to be marked," said the report.
Town halls could deal with what it termed a "base case" of 48,000 deaths in England and Wales during a 15-week pandemic.
"Even with ramping local management capacity by 100 per cent, the prudent worst case of 320,000 excess deaths is projected to lead to a delay of some 17 weeks from death to burial or cremation."
Should the outbreak kill 2.5 per cent of those who contract the flu, it warns, "no matter what emergency arrangements are put in place there are likely to be substantially more deaths than can be managed within current time-scales". The report, Managing Excess Deaths in an Influenza Pandemic, is dated March 22 and says that a vaccine would not be available at least for "the first wave" of a pandemic.
The report was apparently discussed last week in Cabinet sub-committee MISC 32, chaired by Patricia Hewitt, the Health Secretary, reports The Sunday Times. A Home Office spokesman refused to comment on the report or whether it had been discussed.
He said: "The Government is taking very seriously the possible threat of an influenza pandemic. Prudent precautionary planning is under way across all elements of the response, including the NHS other essential services and local authorities."
There have already been warnings that public services would be unable to cope with a bird flu pandemic. Intensive care units would collapse under the extra demand, claims Richard Marsh, a critical care specialist at Northampton General Hospital.
In an article in the British Medical Journal, he said that if an outbreak was similar to those in Asia, a typical large district hospital would need to find 30 extra beds for patients with respiratory failure.
"This is between four and five times the number of intensive care beds available in most general hospitals. We are unlikely to be able to mobilise the equipment and staff to achieve such a temporary increase in provision."
It has been reported that GP surgeries have been put on alert to look for patients with bird flu-like symptoms, who may have come in contact with sickly birds. Previously, doctors had been told only to screen foreigners from "at-risk" countries who had come into contact with poultry.
Despite such concerns, the Department of Health has made the decision not to launch a public information campaign on the possible spread of bird flu because of fears that it would cause "panic".
The Government announced recently that it had awarded contracts worth £33 million to British companies to make 3.5 million doses of a vaccine to protect humans against the H5N1 strain.
The latest bird flu death was in Indonesia, which has confirmed its 23rd human fatality. The victim was a one-year-old girl, who died in Jakarta last week. An outbreak last month in Azerbaijan killed five young people.
In February it was discovered that the H5N1 virus had struck a turkey farm in south-east France, bringing closer the spectre of an outbreak in Britain.
Sheesh.....and we all know how good GOVERNMENT is at PREDICTING ANYTHING.....sheesh....I'm more worried about a dirty bomb!
I'm glad because when he shoots, I have to take my four dogs away to my brother's house.
Mmmm...goulash. Haven't had any good goulash in years.
Those glum Brits...always expecting the worst.
They should be more afraid of what's going on in their mosques right now.
The CDC and the governments have been so disappointed that they have no pandemic to scare people with, they have to keep using that word for every single thing that pops up..
The sky is not falling chicken little..
So how many times can you use the word 'prudent' in an article?
I understand the concern for your dogs. We had to stop shooting doves behind my partner's house because of his wife's dogs and the neighbor's kennel 300 yds away.
Your neighbor is really out in front of a "free-for-all"
season. The legal limit for doves varies but 10-12 per day and the limit with 20-24 in possession. Your neighbor is a
"game hunter slob".
I wondered what was the limit. He 'baits' his field too...is that legal?
A lot like the uproar about nukes in Iran. They don't have them yet, so lets bury our heads in the sand.
In the 1950's they had public service commercials and newsreels, with a voice-over, that showed people digging a grave-like hole and placing a door from the house over the top. Then they showed the person piling the dirt on the door (for increased protection), then crawling under a narrow opening at one end. Then, if there were a blast, they were to cover their eyes and wait as long as possible before coming out.
Of course there was little protection from blast, and less from radiation. But, survivors, or civilians or military personnel re-entering the area would only have to pull the doors out from under the dirt to complete a burial.
What a brilliant idea! We should just tell everyone that you can escape Bird Flu by living in a similar hole.
**Prepare now.***
Remember the SWINE FLU panic of the 1970's? More people died standing in line for the shots than died of the swine flu.
Only ONE man caught it from his pigs and he had more photographers and reporters surrounding him than you could shake a stick at.
***The problem with this idea of a pandemic is that most of the people that died from the one in the early 1900s died not from the virus, but from getting pneumonia as a consequence of the virus.
NOW WE CAN TREAT PNEUMONIA WITH ANTIBIOTICS.***
I have been saying this same thing right here on FR ever since I registered. Will they believe me Noo00o.
NOW, that is FUNNY!
Google Earth member Declan has just done an overlay of all reported cases of bird flu. FYI
Can you post it here?
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