[RunningWolf]

Oh I don't discount your analysis even based on speculation, it seems educated speculation.

One thing in our favor on the nuke issue, is that the smaller lightweight nukes use several materials that have much shorter half lives etc. This and a few other factors mean that these devices have much shorter 'shelf lives' and getting all the materials in one place at one time to replenish the device would be very difficult.

This kind of info is not classified, a person can read all this and make these guesses from readily available sources on the INET.

Also I think the black market is not a friendly place for any group. There have been most likely several frauds or bait and switch operations wherein the terror group shows up at the site with their $20 million or whatever and and they go away dead, or get some useless device that emits some radiation etc.

Wolf

[attiladhun2]

Yes. Primary munition in suitcase nukes does degrade, however, the degradation does not mean the thing won't explode. It only means the explosion will not be as powerful as undegraded material. Let's say the terrorists have a 200 kiloton device. If its primary munition is degraded by 2/3, that would still mean an explosion equal to some 70 thousand lbs of TNT, almost 20 times the OKC detonation that killed 168.
Also, the kind of folks I'm talking about in the Russian gov would the very ones who would want to hand off the real McCoy. No doubt, the terrorist have bought some pig-in-a-poke nukes, but I still think we have to operate under the assumption that they have them already and are biding their time when to use them.