The unthinkable -- perhaps the inevitable (Nuclear Terror Attack)

Townhall.com ^ | March 31, 2006 | Mark M. Alexander

[rjp2005]

Obviously NYC and surrounding area (NJ) remains the greatest risk. Any section of the country with a high Jewish population is a preferred target for these miscreants.

[attiladhun2]

The 9-11 highjackers had Afghan help, since the plot was spawned there by bin Laden and his leutenants. Iraq was party to it, also. A colonel in the Saddam Fedayeen was present at the meeting in Kuala Lumpor where the plot was discussed in detail. I believe many of the 9-11 highjackers (or the support group in back of it) used Iraqi safehouses.

[attiladhun2]

A more likely nuke threat could come if Chavez gets ahold of nukes either by purchase or development and uses them for either leverage or hands them off to a terror group. However, there is a good possiblity al-Qaeda might already have some small devices rat-holed somewhere. They could transport them to this hemisphere easy enough since they have a "navy". See the book by Langweise called The Outlaw Sea. Al Qaeda has moved many of its assets to the ocean. They have purchased ships and yachts and have set up shipping companies to raise revenue by legitimate trade, to smuggle arms and drugs, to move personnel around, and eventually to use as a weapons.

[RunningWolf]

No I understand what you are saying.

However in 2nd and 3d world states as those are, smaller groups can operate as conspiracies under the radar, and may have the support of some individuals in the state but not necessarily are 'the state'. Pakistan might another example of that. I do not deny that Saddam could have well given behind the scenes tactical and logistic support for the 9-11 killers.

In the future these nations will not be able to use that excuse as easily because we have put the world on notice.

Agree?

Wolf

[attiladhun2]

Yes. Just like in Saudi a while back when a group of foreign nationals were kidnapped. Apparently, the terrorists used police cars and some police personnel may have been involved. I think these kinds of arrangements are common in the ME and other parts of the world. Which is why I think al-Qaeda may have picked up some small nukes from Russian sources. Many in the Russian gov are unrepentant Commies or Russian nationalists and despise bitterly the United States in particular and the West in general. The Russian intell services are filled with such people and many of these have ties to Russian organized crime. These criminals have further ties to the Chechen mafia which has ties to ME terror groups. Given all the heroin these groups control and a glut of cash, I see no good reason not to believe nuclear devices have not already changed hands. I think my analysis here is sound, even if based on speculation.

[RunningWolf]

Oh I don't discount your analysis even based on speculation, it seems educated speculation.

One thing in our favor on the nuke issue, is that the smaller lightweight nukes use several materials that have much shorter half lives etc. This and a few other factors mean that these devices have much shorter 'shelf lives' and getting all the materials in one place at one time to replenish the device would be very difficult.

This kind of info is not classified, a person can read all this and make these guesses from readily available sources on the INET.

Also I think the black market is not a friendly place for any group. There have been most likely several frauds or bait and switch operations wherein the terror group shows up at the site with their $20 million or whatever and and they go away dead, or get some useless device that emits some radiation etc.

Wolf

[attiladhun2]

Yes. Primary munition in suitcase nukes does degrade, however, the degradation does not mean the thing won't explode. It only means the explosion will not be as powerful as undegraded material. Let's say the terrorists have a 200 kiloton device. If its primary munition is degraded by 2/3, that would still mean an explosion equal to some 70 thousand lbs of TNT, almost 20 times the OKC detonation that killed 168.
Also, the kind of folks I'm talking about in the Russian gov would the very ones who would want to hand off the real McCoy. No doubt, the terrorist have bought some pig-in-a-poke nukes, but I still think we have to operate under the assumption that they have them already and are biding their time when to use them.