A Singularity event is still the most likely. I'd lean towards a negative scenario though. The hyper-capable leaving behind those too hide bound to advance. A conflict then ensuing. It hits all the classical societal stress points for just about every metric you care to imagine.
Extropians and transhumanists have been knocking around ideas for failsafe tech limits, strategies for paradigm shifts, dealing with religious zealotry and objectionism, ect...
Fascinating topic...
I see this, too.
A conflict then ensuing.
Why? I think the extropians will just leave the planet, probably with technology that humans can't even understand. They may stick around to maintain the earth as a human zoo. If so I expect that would take their zoo-keeper role as seriously as most other zoo-keepers do.
Alternately they might just disengage.
Well, I wouldn't consider that too negative, but then I know which group I'd plan to be in :)
A conflict then ensuing.
I don't think that's inevitable. The "transhumans" would likely be so wealthy and powerful that they could easily afford to let the "luddites" live in peace, perhaps even assisting them. I do see large potentials for conflict in the process of getting to that point, for example radical egalitarians determined that if they're not going to be enhanced, nobody else should be. (In a way, Islamic terrorism is a form of this).
Fascinating topic...
Indeed.