[ThinkDifferent]

A Singularity event is still the most likely. I'd lean towards a negative scenario though. The hyper-capable leaving behind those too hide bound to advance.

Well, I wouldn't consider that too negative, but then I know which group I'd plan to be in :)

A conflict then ensuing.

I don't think that's inevitable. The "transhumans" would likely be so wealthy and powerful that they could easily afford to let the "luddites" live in peace, perhaps even assisting them. I do see large potentials for conflict in the process of getting to that point, for example radical egalitarians determined that if they're not going to be enhanced, nobody else should be. (In a way, Islamic terrorism is a form of this).

Fascinating topic...

Indeed.

[Mr. Jeeves]

The "transhumans" would likely be so wealthy and powerful that they could easily afford to let the "luddites" live in peace, perhaps even assisting them.

It's like the world's biggest game of "Risk". George Soros and his ilk are playing it today, in fact, sans the extended lifespans. ;)