"And this is a major problem we face. And it has been in my mind for a year plus. Why should Iraqi take the painfull steps required to unite, if the US will not fully back them. And as we understand, the US has already announced in effect it shall provide far less aid to Iraq then has been planned. The administration is slowly moving toward a position that it is now up to the Iraqi to embrace their future, take control. And this must scare the pee out of many of them." 
I disagree. First, the Iraqis know that President Bush will continue his precise same policies for the next 3 years. Second, Iraqis want to govern themselves. Third, is technology.
Even with the U.S. Army fully withdrawn from Iraq, we'll still be able to offer the Iraqis more than 1,000 UCAV's in their skies for combat air support 24/7...flown remotely by kids drinking Jolt Cola in Nevada.
UCAV's are politically stealthy. No Americans are at risk in UCAV's, thus, even a Democrat would authorize their use (after all, no Democrat would want to be blamed for losing Iraq on his/her watch).
UCAV's can carry up to 16 air to ground missiles, and we're already flying more than 1,000 UAVs per day in Iraq now. This is a potent force that will forever be available to friendly Iraqi forces.
It will also aid our long-term bonding with Iraq. Our UCAV's will foster long-term good relations with Iraq...something that lip service or bribes from the French or Russians or Chinese can't easily match.
1,000 "Iraqi" UCAV's, when combined with a U.S. trained Iraqi Army, a democratic election process, a Republican Iraqi government, a viable Constitution, and a rebuilt infrastructure adds up to long-term Iraqi stability (as well as friendship with the U.S.).
Perhaps your evalution is correct. Let us hope it is correct. For whatever reasons I appear to have been changing my mind a lot lately on the final outcome. And certainly I do not use the L/MSM as any guide. I run various scenarios around and present what if's. Perhaps my recent what if's appear to negative in nature. For I surely have championed much of what you write, independent of our recent interchanges. One thing for sure. I always in the back of my mind have the Russians as a player. But that can truely start confusing specifics regarding the current political environment in Iraq, then again perhaps not. It depends on how deep one wants to play their what ifs.
Lastly, I do hope we shall be able to maintain bases for our military to stay, in total safety and continue to work closely with them. And hopefully SOCOM will be aloud to participate in the background. I have not given up hope on the outcome. I would prefere to stay optimistic based available information. And not just on knee jerk changes.