"In short, all 3 parties in Iraq need U.S. protection. The Kurds from the Turks. The Arab Shia from the Persians. The Sunnis from the Kurds and Shia."
This analysis is very nearly correct. In fact, you know a lot more about Iraq that I do and I appreciate the education I am getting here.
You are however overlooking one factor---a factor that ultimately outweighs all others. In November 2008, the American people will elect a new president. If it has not been made clear by that date that the United States is very much on the way out of Iraq, I believe one of the criteria a presidential candidate must meet to be elected will be convincing the American electorate that he or she will definitely get us out of Iraq quickly.
Furthermore, I think it will be difficult for any Republican candidate to do this and still get elected. By which I mean, a Republican candidate would probably alienate a large part of his or her base in doing so. In short, Hillary is likely our next president.
This would mean, not only no American boots on the ground, but a complete cut off out all military aid to Iraq.
The Sunnis are no doubt still deeply tied in with the Russians, who basically set up Saddam Hussein in the first place, and the Iranians are obviously deeply tied in with the Russians who have provided them with nuclear reactors, intercontinental ballistic missile technology, and conventional arms.
While probably no one agrees with me, I am also quite certain that the Russians are tied in with al Qaeda. Admittedly, I cannot prove this, though I post my little bit of evidence below.
At any rate, as I see it, the Russians will hold most of the cards once we leave. I agree with Marine Uncle that the Chinese may also play a role, but as I see Russia and China as close allies---whose public disputes have been primarily fake since 1960---this is a minor factor. I'm not saying that there will be harmony in Iraq---or even that civil war will be avoided. I'm just saying that it looks probable to me that the Russians will end up in control.
In terms of your analysis specifically, I disagree about your valuation of the Iranian and an Iraqi Shi'ites. While I don't doubt that your history is correct (I'll admit mine is weak here), it seems clear that more recent history is outweighing the more distant past. The Shi'ites in Iraq have been badly oppressed by the Sunnis for 40 years or more now and have viewed the Iranian Shi'ites as their allies. (even Sistanni,who is generally acknowledged as the most influential Iraqi before the political process started had extensive ties with Iran.) Even if they, as a group, would wish---in an ideal world---to be independent of the Iranians---if there's one thing every Iraqi knows it's that he or she does not live in an ideal world.
I think everyone in Iraq realizes that the United States will be out soon and they are all trying to figure out who their allies are going to be. Unfortunately, for the Sunnis it's the Russians, and the Shi'ites will choose the Iranians, not realizing that the Iranians will essentially sell them out to the Russians---just like they have been doing over the past few years now---taking information the Iraqi Shi'ites give them and handing it to the Russians, who hand it to the Sunnis and Al Qaeda. That is why the Sunnis and Al Qaeda are so effective in the Shi'ite areas, but have no effect at all in the Kurdish areas.
As far as the Kurds, I cannot imagine what is on their minds at this point. I agree with your analysis vis-à-vis them---a long-term US presence would be their only hope---except I see no chance of that happening.
TERRORISM MONITOR
Volume 2 Issue 1 (January 15, 2004)
A RUSSIAN AGENT AT THE RIGHT HAND OF BIN LADEN?
http://jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=23472
By Evgenii Novikov
The Arabic television channel Al Jazeera broadcast an audiotape on December 19, 2003, that was said to be from Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri, the right hand man of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. In it, Zawahiri claimed that his group was chasing Americans everywhere, including in the United States. This claim helped raise the terror threat level.
But where is Zawahiri, whose head now carries a price of US$25 million? Recent media reports have said that he is hiding in Iran, though Iranian authorities deny this. Yet it could be that Russian intelligence knows exactly where he is and may even have regular contact with the elusive Egyptian.
Zawahiri as Prisoner
There are many accounts of Ayman al-Zawahiri published in the press. These stories cover Zawahiri's childhood and his relatives, his study of medicine, his connections to the Muslim Brotherhood, his involvement in the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, his close relations with Osama bin Laden, and his role in major terrorist attacks against the United States. But there are few authors who mention that Zawahiri spent half a year in close contact with representatives of Russian intelligence while in their custody.
Significantly, these contacts led to a change in Zawahiri's political orientation. Long talks with Russian intelligence officers "forced a critical change in his lethal planning. ...America, not Egypt, became the target... Freed from Russian jail in May 1997, Dr. Zawahri found refuge in Afghanistan, yoking his fortunes to Mr. bin Laden. [Zawahiri's group] Egyptian Jihad, previously devoted to the narrow purpose of toppling secular rule in Egypt, became instead the biggest component of al Qaeda and a major agent of a global war against America. Dr. Zawahri became Mr. bin Laden's closest confidant and talent scout." [1]
The story of Zawahiri's Russian experience begins on December 1, 1996, when he was traveling under the alias "Mr. Amin" along with two of his officers--Ahmad Salama Mabruk, who ran Egyptian Jihad's cell in Azerbaijan under the cover of a trading firm called Bavari-C, and Mahmud Hisham al-Hennawi, a militant widely traveled in Asia. The group was accompanied by a Chechen guide. They were trying to enter Russia between the Caspian Sea and the Caucasus Mountains in an effort to discover whether Chechnya could become a base for training militants. It was here that the group was arrested by Russian police for a lack of visas. They were soon handed over to the Federal Security Service, the successor to the KGB.
When Zawahiri's computer was later discovered in Afghanistan by two journalists, it provided insight into Zawahiri's side of the story. In short, it goes as follows:
The Russians failed to: 1) find out Zawahiri's real identity and the goals of his visit to Chechnya; 2) read the Arabic texts in his laptop, which would have revealed the nature of his activities; and 3) read the coded messages that he sent from custody to his friends.
Zawahiri's Version Debunked
Yet based on my own twenty years' experience with Russian intelligence people involved in Arab affairs, these claims simply do not ring true. The Soviet KGB had good--albeit indirect--connections with Islamic fundamentalists, including the Muslim Brotherhood and the Egyptian Jihad. The curriculum of Arab terrorists who studied at Moscow International's Lenin School placed special emphasis on cooperation between Marxists and Islamists. Soviet instructors would encourage Arab terrorists to consider the Muslim Brothers and other Islamic extremists as "allies in class struggle."
Good contacts between the KGB and Islamic fundamentalists existed at the time of the Egyptian Jihad's 1981 assassination of Anwar Sadat, after which Zawahiri was jailed by Egyptian authorities. Since the KGB followed these events very closely and may have even been indirectly involved in the plot, the KGB would have put Zawahiri's name into its records at that time. Therefore, when Zawahiri crossed the KGB's path again, that organization likely would have soon discovered his real identity.
Additionally, local Islamic organizations flocked to Zawahiri's aid during his detention and trial in such large numbers that the Russians and even Zawahiri's own lawyer were puzzled by the outpouring. [2] This would have been another tip-off to the authorities that they had more than just a mere merchant (Zawahiri's reported claim) in custody. Also, the fact that he was arrested along with a Chechen should have raised additional suspicions.
Perhaps most difficult to believe from Zawahiri's version is that his captors would not have read the Arabic information contained within his laptop computer. Russian intelligence has probably the best Arabists in the world. One of them--Dr. Evgeny Primakov--headed the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service from December 1991 until January 1996 and made a considerable efforts to bring many talented Arabists into this service. These individuals would have been able not only to read Zawahiri's Arabic text, but also to decode his encrypted messages without any problem.
Thus, with Zawahiri's true identity and purpose uncovered by the Russians, these authorities would have been faced with several options. One would have been deportation to either Egypt or the United States, with gratitude from those governments for Russian President Yeltsin, burnishing his image as a fighter against terrorism. But apparently the Russians decided not to do this, believing perhaps that their national interest was better served by another alternative.
One should bear in mind that at the time of Zawahiri's capture, Chechnya was enjoying a period of actual independence from Moscow. The Kremlin was having great difficulty finding "agents of influence" among the Chechen people. At the same time, Moscow knew that representatives of al Qaeda and other foreign Islamic fundamentalists were present in Chechnya and exercised strong influence on the Chechen leaders, especially on the military commanders. It would have been logical, therefore, for the Russians to try to persuade Zawahiri to cooperate with them in directing the activities of Arabs in Chechnya, in getting information about the plans and activities of Chechen leaders, and in influencing the Chechen leadership.
It may not have been too difficult for Russian officers to persuade Zawahiri to go along with such a plan. The prisoner would have been very frightened by the prospect of being deported to Egypt or remaining jailed in Russia. Furthermore, methods of torture during interrogation used by KGB officers would have truly almost scared Zawahiri to death. Execution very likely was just one threat.
Once made aware that the KGB knew of his true identity, Zawahiri would have realized that it would be useless to lie further. At a minimum, Zawahiri would have had to agree to cooperation with Russian intelligence to save his life and to buy his freedom. It is possible that the Russians also offered some form of assistance to Zawahiri and al Qaeda. This could have been in the form of explosive technology or other weaponry.
It is notable that Taliban and al Qaeda militants in Afghanistan received regular re-supplies of Russian arms. The man responsible for these deliveries was Victor Anatolievich Bout, the son of a top KGB officer. His father's connections helped establish Bout in the arms trade, which is linked to the Russian government and particularly to its intelligence services. Bout and his family currently reside in the United Arab Emirates. [3]
It is also not difficult to imagine that the Russians managed to get some information from Zawahiri about his colleagues that could have been used to blackmail him if he tried to avoid cooperation after his release. With an agreement reached between Zawahiri and the Russians, the authorities would have taken steps to make the Egyptian look "clean" to his Arab comrades and the Chechens. It would not have been difficult for them to stage Zawahiri's trial, at which the judge gave him only a six months' sentence, much of which he had already served.
A final note: Arabs are still very active among the Chechen militants today, and yet the Russians appear to turn a blind eye toward their infiltration and do not hunt them particularly. Even the most influential among the Arabs, Khattab, may well have been killed by his own people. Arabs have also never been listed as POWs. Perhaps the Russian forces have an order to kill Arabs on the spot: Nobody wants them to reveal unwanted information during interrogations. Thus left alone, the Arabs exercise significant influence over the activities of Chechen commanders according to orders from Zawahiri. Presumably they do so without understanding that they could well be the Trojan horses who actually execute the Kremlin's orders. For example, the Arabs apparently do not encourage Chechen militants to direct any attacks against Russian leaders in Moscow. This could be accomplished simply by refusing to pay for such operations.
In contrast, the Arabs do seem to encourage the taking of hostages from among the common people, as in the Moscow youth club Nord-Ost incident, thus making it easier for the Kremlin to stoke public anger against "Chechen terrorists." This in turn helps Vladimir Putin garner popular support for his own authoritarian actions as well as those of his former KGB colleagues who now occupy 65 percent of top governmental positions. Dr. Zawahiri may thus be the queen in the Kremlin's chess game not only in Chechnya, but also in Russia's power struggle at the highest levels. If so, it is not likely that the Russians would surrender him merely to help win the global war on terror.
Dr. Novikov is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation.
Notes:
1. "Saga of Dr. Zawahri Sheds Light On the Roots of al Qaeda Terror;" Andrew Higgins and Alan Cullison; The Wall Street Journal, July 2, 2002.
2. Ibid.
3. "International Business of Russian Mafia," Sueddeutsche Zeitung, February 1, 2001.
Your concerns regarding long term commitments in Iraq are well received. And I have voiced similiar concerns in past posts.
Surely the current mix of Iraqi politicians are hedging so to speak certain commitments based on the uncertainty of who will be the US POTUS in 2008. Few Republican potentiates would consider undertaking a long term commitment in Iraq based on public opinion.
And this is a major problem we face. And it has been in my mind for a year plus. Why should Iraqi take the painfull steps required to unite, if the US will not fully back them.
And as we understand, the US has already announced in effect it shall provide far less aid to Iraq then has been planned.
The administration is slowly moving toward a position that it is now up to the Iraqi to embrace their future, take control. And this must scare the pee out of many of them.
As for your entry of the Russian part of the equation. It will be hard for many here to integrate it into their though processes, because it is a monster in itself. Not well understood by many, and quite frankly ignored simply as a bad dream that will not go away.
And that is OK. I hardly like to think about this part of the deal so to speak, but am always forced back into the realities of the region and who was really in control since the days of Nasar etc..
It is almost like throwing a curve ball to friends when the russkies are brought into the Iraqi/Iranian issues. People start to shy away. But that does not for a minute diminish the real realities. The Russians have big stakes in this game.
Oil/gas pipelines from both Iran and Iraq (north/south fields) are big time money in the future. Just to name one of the more obviouse economic issues at hand. And the Russians would love to once again sell weapon systems to the Iraqis. If the US pulls out, and our military is asked to leave, then the Russians will move in sure as hell. The Iraqi will as any nation want to re-arm. And since the US will not be in the picture, what better opportunity for the Iraqi to ask the Russians back in to rebuild their infrastructure. Oil refineries, petro chemical plants, new power stations, nuclear reactors for future Iraqi energy needs.
The whole bad dream once again. So naturally, you can see why you don't get responses from folks on some of your posts. Many here, know the score, but perhaps are at odds as how to express in a few sentences the ramifications of what the Russian are waiting to do once the US pulls out. Taint a pretty picture. As for Iran. No comments should be required. We understand how deeply the Russians are in bed with the Persians. And nuke em has no meaning in the reality of things. The Russians and Chicoms just sit by licking their chops.
"In short, Hillary is likely our next president." 
Then you know nothing of American politics.
Senator Clinton can't flip a Red State over to Blue. Hillary can't win in Red States, that's why she is the Senator from New York instead of from Arkansas (where her husband was governor).
Without Red States, the Dems lose. Winning only Blue States gives the Dems the same thing that they earned in 2000 and 2004, losses.
Moreover, since 1964, the Democrats have only won Presidential elections when running Southern Evangelicals (e.g. President Johnson, President Carter, President Clinton), even if evangelical in name only.
The junior Senator from New York doesn't fit that profile.