Bird Flu: "This thing Just Continues to March" (Interview w/Dr Michael Osterholm)

Minneapolis/St Paul City Pages ^ | March 22, 2006 | Steve Perry

[Gritty]

The CP interview: Dr. Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy talks about the flu that could bring the world to its knees.

(snip)

Of the 100+ human cases of H5N1 flu recorded, the vast majority have involved bird-to-human transmission, mostly among open-air poultry handlers in Asia. In addition, there are confirmed clusters in which it has passed person to person, though none of those has yet resulted in a breakout of the virus. One thing is clear, however: In its present form, H5N1 has killed over half of the people it's infected. The great flu pandemic of 1918-19, by contrast, killed about 5 percent of its victims.

Will it cross over? If it does, can it possibly remain as deadly? Though Osterholm notes that viruses usually do lose strength as they spread—it's not really in their own evolutionary interest to kill the majority of their hosts—he believes the only responsible answer on both counts is we don't know. But it's not just the characteristics of the virus that worry him.

One of the things that sets the former Minnesota state epidemiologist apart from other public health officials is his attention to the fate of the medical and social infrastructure in any serious contagious outbreak. With respect to bird flu, his outlook recapitulates in many ways what he had to say in his 2001 book about bioterrorism preparedness, Living Terrors much of the human toll in death, hysteria, and anarchy would be exacted not by infection but by the wide-scale breakdown of global supply chains and just-in-time delivery systems for vital goods and services. "I think Secretary Leavitt has been brutally honest in telling American communities, you're going to be on your own," says Osterholm. "I think he's right."

(snip)

[La Enchiladita]

Why Birdflu Doesn’t Spread Between Humans

[Jim Verdolini]

"Other than some isolated cases the death rates of the 1918 flu never came close to what Smallpox did to the native Americans or the Plague did to Europe in the middle ages."

Both disasters took place in limited areas over a far longer period and killed vastly fewer people.

I said it was the worst disaster in human history. I did not say european history or native american history.

You are not grasping the difference. In 1918, between september and march 1919, the flu killed over 40 million people. Where it hit, normal life stoped. Read the history of the event.

try these links

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/influenza/

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/influenza/sfeature/boston.html

http://www.jhsph.edu/publichealthnews/magazine/archive/Mag_Fall04/prologues/page2.html

http://www.upenn.edu/gazette/1198/lynch.html

[KoRn]

"You normally eat raw chicken? cooked chicken should kill any virus."

Would you eat chicken if you thought there was a high probability it had bird flu? I seriously doubt I would. It's analogous to people saying AIDS can't be spread through kissing. Even though that's a fact. I doubt you will find many people willing to kiss someone with AIDS.

I bet the poultry industry is sweating bullets over this.

[antivenom]

The real initial problem would be that farmers who maintain vast amount of poultry have a sick single bird and then the government comes in and demands that all fowl be destroyed, and then in the meantime, also quarantine the farm to prevent any other non fowl product from leaving...how about milk or beef.

I think ONE thing we might consider would be WHAT impact of government quarantining farms will have on our food supply?

No eggs? No fowl? (face it chicken is a cheap form of meat), IF the quarantine is STRICT, could milk be prevented from being loaded and shipped away from a farm? Could they worry that "bird droppings on the tires, going farm to farm could be a problem.

Think about the nonsense we went through recently when a person traveled abroad and they made people walk through a shoe disinfectant to kill any germs on our feed to help halt the transmission of mad cow disease. I travel a lot internationally and had to do that in MANY places.

[antivenom]

see post 84

[DJtex]

How big was the Spanish Flu? It basically ended World War One having caused so much chaos on both sides of the trenches, the war was just sort of called off.

[TexasRepublic]

Both disasters took place in limited areas over a far longer period and killed vastly fewer people.

In absolute numbers, I don't know, but I've read that a third of Europe's population died from the plague, even if it was over an extended period. That is not insignificant and the European economy took over a century to recover. I agree with your previous comments on the effects a pandemic could have. I highly recommend you read "Through A Distant Mirror" by Barbara W. Tuchman for a detailed description of the plague's disruption of life in Europe. I did read the entire article, unlike some on this thread, and saw at least one documented case of human to human transmission, so it appears that an isolated mutation has happened and thus can likely happen again.

[KoRn]

What's bad is that IS going to happen. It's just a matter of time. People can debate on whether or not it will make the jump to humans, and then human to human, but this thing will most certainly get into our country and into our food supply.

[FBD]

>"In 1918 the flu had a mortality rate of about 3-5%. It killed 5% of the total world population."<

Most flu infections can be attributed to poor sanitation, lack of hand washing, hygiene techniques, etc.

In 1918, many people did not get sick at all.

Flue vaccine immunity is a myth. A vaccine only provides temporary immunity, at best is about 70 - 80 % effective...temporarily. That drops to about 30 - 40 % for people over 65.

There is no reason for someone with a healthy immune system to get a flu shot.

http://www.vaccineinfo.net/immunization/vaccine/influenza/flu_vaccine_facts.shtml

"...70 to 80 percent effective in temporarily preventing the flu of the season in healthy persons less than 65 years old (the efficacy rate drops to 30 to 40% in those over 65 years old but the vaccine is thought to be 50 to 60% effective in preventing hospitalization and pneumonia and 80% effective in preventing death from the flu in the over 65 age group)..."

"One consideration with the mass use of flu vaccine in healthy children is the removal of natural antibodies to flu which are obtained from natural infection. The question of whether it is better for healthy children, who rarely suffer complications from flu, to get the flu and develop permanent immunity to that flu strain or it is better for children to get vaccinated every year to try to suppress all flu infection in early childhood is a question that has yet to be adequately answered by medical science."

[txhurl]

Additional cases suspected by WHO are relatives of previous victims

Babelfished from Russian:

WHO - WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION: with "bird influenza" could fall ill more than 10 inhabitants of Azerbaijan

March 20, 2006

The appraisal group of the World Health Organization (WHO - WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION) suspects, that still several inhabitants Of the sal'yanskeyeo region of Azerbaijan, which is located in 150 kilometers to the south of Baku, fell ill with "bird influenza", reported on Monday television channel ANS, referring to the representatives OF WHO - WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION.

This statement the representatives OF WHO - WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION gave after the visit Of the sal'yanskeyeo region, where suspects the presence of disease in 14 inhabitants of the settlements Of Daykend and Sarvan.

The representatives OF WHO - WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION stated that the suspicions to the diseases by virus H5N1 in some inhabitants of settlements arose in them after encounter with the families of the persons, supposedly infected with this illness.

The appraisal group OF WHO - WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION, which consists of the epidemiologists and infektsionistov, they are located in The sal'yanskeye region for studying the sources of the disease of the inhabitants of these populated areas.

Previously it communicated about the presence of suspicions to the virus of "bird influenza" in three killed inhabitants Of the sal'yanskeyeo region.

Studies from the side of the specialists OF WHO - WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION confirmed primary diagnosis about the infection of three persons by "bird influenza".

For the first time the virus of "bird influenza" was fixed in Azerbaijan on 9 February. It was discovered in the models of the blood of the killed wild migratory birds on the coast of Caspian Region.

http://txt.newsru.com/world/20mar2006/voz.html

[steve86]

The missing family found in the mountains yesterday were surviving on Y2K supply's and even said they could have held out for several more weeks.

Yeah, it wasn't all that bad for them. If they had enough propane to last until warm weather it would have been just an extended campout.

I've turned around on a snowed forest service road more than once in a Jeep. Can't imagine trying it in an RV.

Some of the dehydrated foods packed with O2 absorbers are expected to last 20-30 years, BTW.

[steve86]

Most flu infections can be attributed to poor sanitation, lack of hand washing, hygiene techniques, etc.

Good hygiene can't hurt but it does nothing to prevent catching the disease via airborne droplets expelled though sneezing or coughing. The extremely rapid spread (i.e. hours) of the Spanish flu among troops at military bases can only be explained by airborne transmission.

[FBD]

that's true, sneezing and coughing can transmit the flu.
But the avian flu virus is easily destroyed by soap.

Having said that, there are better ways to boost the immune system naturally then a flu shot.

Have you heard of Dr. Sherri Tenpenny?
Good info here:

http://www.newswithviews.com/Tenpenny/sherri4.htm#_ftn15


"According to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the avian influenza virus is easier to destroy than other influenza viruses. It appears that it is very sensitive to detergents — i.e., soap — which destroy the outer fat-containing layer of the virus. This layer is needed to enter cells of animals and, therefore, destroys the infectivity. In other words, when you have been in public places, use soap to wash your hands before touching your face.[15]"

[FBD]

The whole bird flu pandemic is full of hype and scare tactics, promulgated by the lamestream media.

Here's a counterpoint, by a conservative doctor.
I would encourage everyone to at least consider her contentions about various flu vaccines:
THE FLU SEASON CAMPAIGN BEGINS
http://www.newswithviews.com/Tenpenny/sherri.htm

ELIMINATING BIRD FLU FEARS
http://www.newswithviews.com/Tenpenny/sherri4.htm#_ftn15

---

Most folks do not know that many vaccines contain all sorts of toxic ingredients. (see partial list of ingredients, below) No one should take a vaccine without first being fully INFORMED as to what they are actually injecting into their body:

http://www.whale.to/vaccines/ingredients1.html

"...thimerosal (mercury), formalin, aluminum hydroxide, phenoxyethanol (antifreeze), polysorbate 20, residual MRC5 proteins (from medium) medium: human diploid cells (originating from human aborted fetal tissue)..."

[Swiss]

The Black Death killed much more percent of the population and historians have agreed it changed history.

According the this link 25 million out of a population in Europe of 75 million died. That is Europe alone, the plague also struck the Middle east and China so chances are it exceeded the 40 million of the 1918 flu out of a much smaller population.

http://www.themiddleages.net/plague.html

The 1918 flu was pretty much forgotten within a few years and lasted only about a year.

Parts of Europe did not recover their pre-plague population until the 17th century. How long did it take the World to make up the losses of 1918?

[Swiss]

The Germans last great hope for victory was defeated in the summer of 1918. Starvation due to the allied blockade, new technology called the Tank put the allies at an advantage. Germany's allies was beaten.

The flu happened in the fall.

The big problem with the Flu ended the war theory is just how much it was never mentioned by the leadership after the war. I don't recall any mention of it in "All quiet on the Western Front" nor have I ever read any history of the War from that era saying much about the Flu.

The 1918 Flu only became a big deal recently

[Swiss]

To be honest I am planning to buy another freezer to store cheap chicken if the price is right. I might reconsider if the Chickens have AIDS.

Bird flu only lasts a few weeks if you get it unlike AIDS. If it has reached the point where it can be spread person to person then why avoid Chicken?

Besides most likely the bird flu will have a 2% mortality rate. Lots of people take greater risks without a thought.

[Swiss]

From the article

**One thing is clear, however: In its present form, H5N1 has killed over half of the people it's infected. The great flu pandemic of 1918-19, by contrast, killed about 5 percent of its victims.**

According to the link below the death rate was 2.5%

http://www.stanford.edu/group/virus/uda/

Doubling the death rate from the 1918 Flu makes me question his other data. He's hyping.

[ladyinred]

Ping to a bird flu article!

[MeneMeneTekelUpharsin]

Where's the original link to the article that goes with that map? Thanks.