Posted on 03/23/2006 7:10:32 AM PST by SoFloFreeper
BC-APNewsAlert WASHINGTON (AP) -- A real estate trade group reports that sales of existing homes rose by an unexpected 5.2 percent in February as warm weather boosted demand.
"I also remember after that Carter period when a 9 or 10% mortgage was a real bargain and 12% was the norm."
We bought our current home in the late summer of 77, and we got an 9.5% rate because of the size of our down payment, 50%.
Several refis later to keep the house in shape and college expenses, our interest rate is 5.25%, and the monthly payment isn't much larger than w/the original loan.
We bought our house 5 years ago during a recession, so I expect we'll be alright even if prices do collapse. I can't say the same for some of our more recent neighbors, but from the looks of things, they're getting ready to sell as well.
Gonna be an interesting year or so if this really does go south. It'll be a good time for those who bought wisely, hopefully.
"Overall, U.S. foreclosure numbers climbed steadily over the course of the year, with more new foreclosures reported in every quarter," according to James J. Saccacio, RealtyTrac's chief executive officer. "This trend appears to be moving the real estate foreclosure market back to its historic levels." Florida led the country and accounted for more than 14% of new foreclosures last year, in spite of a 29% decrease in new foreclosures in the state from the beginning of the year to the fourth quarter.
I would expect a year-over-year decline as well. 2005 was an exceptional year, and we probably won't see that level of activity again for a long time. But in order to maintain a healthy housing market, we don't have to see that kind of activity. A slight decline will not signal any huge problems.
I believe we will see a slight correction downward in housing prices, but a full scale bubble burst (I saw one article predicting a 50% decline in prices) seems unlikely given the ability of mortgage companies to come up with newer and more creative ways of financing.
I guess we'll see in the next year or so. I will not personally be buying any investment properties, but I'm not losing much sleep over the investment in my home either.
Several refis later to keep the house in shape and college expenses, our interest rate is 5.25%, and the monthly payment isn't much larger than w/the original loan.And depending on your financial situation probably easier to make.
Housing is regional, and I’d guess the sales are in places like Florida and the South, not in the cold northeast where it’s very expensive to live.
The housing bubble most refer to is around metropolitan areas. For example, a decent house in Watts or Crenshaw (bad parts of Los Angeles, history of crime and riots) goes for about $500k.
Outside of these areas, the housing market is realistically priced and won’t be affected by any burst of metropolitan-based housing bubbles.
Housing is regional, and I’d guess the sales are in places like Florida and the South, not in the cold northeast where it’s very expensive to live.
The housing bubble most refer to is around metropolitan areas. For example, a decent house in Watts or Crenshaw (bad parts of Los Angeles, history of crime and riots) goes for about $500k.
Outside of these areas, the housing market is realistically priced and won’t be affected by any burst of metropolitan-based housing bubbles.
Thanks for that. Also found this article--looks like
some people are buying too much home--caviar taste on
a sardine budget:
http://cbs11tv.com/topstories/local_story_075190701.html
(CBS 11 News) NORTH TEXAS There's good news and bad news in the housing market. More people are buying new homes, but more banks are foreclosing on homes.
You see that beautiful new home and you have to have it, but financial experts say regardless of the economy what you may want, is not always what you need.
Construction zones turn into new homes, which eventually become new neighborhoods.
The Department of Commerce says housing starts are up 14 ½% nationally. That number is even larger here in north Texas.
“We got a lot of job growth in this area which is keeping this real estate market stronger then the one nationally,” said Andy Butchard, Parkside Custom Homes.
Buying a new home is more accessible then ever for north Texans and they're taking advantage.
“A person’s home is like their foundation that’s the American dream so to speak,” said Kevin Williams, Consumer Credit Counseling Services.
Experts at Parkside Custom Homes, based in Fort Worth, say its quality custom homes that are keeping them busy.
“Our sales have been increasing, everyone I know in the building business is doing well,” Butchard said.
But the news isn’t all good, according to economists buyers aren’t fairing so well.
“Many people get emotionally attached to the buying process and they end up unfortunately, getting into more of a home then what they actually can afford. Very few people come and say we can afford a half a million dollar home but we only want to spend two hundred,” Williams said.
Buyer’s eyes that are bigger than their pocket books caused an almost 30% foreclosure rate, says Realty Trac's monthly survey.
Experts say the lesson to be learned is that even though the market is good and a big new home tempting, be honest with what you can spend.
“It's the buyer’s responsibility to really estimate what they can afford to spend and not get into something that would be over their head,” Williams said.
The good news here in north Texas is that our market is doing great compared to other states. In fact, a majority of homes sales is coming from out of state, with people relocating to north Texas.
(CSB 11 News)
Hi guys....
Media Schadenfreude and Media Shenanigans PING
Fake but accurate expectations.
PART II - AGAIN AN AP ARITCLE, what are the odds? < /s >
I just love how you disguised your advertisement to your doom-and-gloom web site in a [/sarcasm] tag.
Couldn't just leave it out, you had to hide it.
Funny.
Here in northern VA, inventory is up 400% since march 05 (Data). How about the headlineL: "Sales Flat, Inventory Skyrockets"?
"I live in a house that is valued at over $400,000 and it's almost 4000 square feet."
It would cost more than that to build a 4,000 square foot house now, and that's not including the land it sits upon.
All you're proving ex-T is that the housing market is regional. Always was, always will be. When Houston "tanked" in the early 80's and dropped prices 5-10%, it didn't tank the rest of the US.
The number of for-sale houses in my Phoenix neighborhood has dropped in the last month. Something like 150k people moved here last year, and they're still coming.
Trying to tell me that I should dump my real-estate because the end of the world is coming is just laughable.
If any number of people had taken your implied advice 3 years ago and sold their houses and rented, they would have lost huge dollars.
There might come a time when I need to sell, but for a fact it will never be because of stuff you've posted. For 3 years now you've been nothing but wrong.
No, year over year was flat. 5.2 was from Jan 06 to Feb 06.
There are a number of reasons but the most common is that folks want to move in and/or out at the end of the school year. Since most closings take months a home bought in September or Januaru disrupts the kids schooling while a home bought in March, April or May will close after the school year ends but before the next one begins.
"And depending on your financial situation probably easier to make."
You are absolutely correct.
In the early 90's, we had both kids out of college, I was at the peak of my earning power, my wife had a good salary, and we cleared out all debts with the exception of the mortgage and maxed out on 401k's and Iras. Our mortgage payment was easy to make then.
I took early retirement in 96, and after the first year I worked as a consultant for a few years. When I turned 62, our accountant suggested that I go on SS and fully retire to spend time on maximizing our Iras and 401k. Her rational was simple, "If I increased our deferred savings an extra $25 k each versus the 45% net I got as an independent consultant, we would be in a lower tax bracket and had more income earning investment in our deferred savings. As usual, that was excellent advice on her part.
A couple of years ago my wife watched a Suze Orman (sp) show where she advised her audience to pay off their mortgages. Last year, I asked our accountant about this, and she said that we would have to tap our deferred accounts very hard to do that, and besides killing us tax wise that year and in the future. We would not be able to use that withdrawn money to earn money in the future. Her advice was to get another rifi, to really fix up our home. It was good advise.
Bush should not be credited for the good housing numbers over the most recent month's reporting.
Nor, should Bush be blamed for the horrible retail sales number from the most recent number reported.
Besides the good news today, there is bad news (at the moment) that the 10-year Note and 30-year bond are lower--that is bad news. Bush should not be blamed for that.
In fact, the bond market is lower because the housing number was strong. The stock market is also lower following the housing number report--should Bush be blamed for these negatives if we are to blame him for the positives?
You people who keep associating economic indicators on a month to month basis with presidential performance are so ininformed of economic reality.
President should not receive blame, nor should they get credit, for short-term economic indicators. To do so shows a total lack of knowledge and common sense.
Absolutely. My house is not the most expensive one in this neighborhood by any means, but I see the ones in the new subdivisions. I have an acre of land and so do the others in this subdivision (Yes, we have the dreaded covenants!)
I know what my stepdaughter is asking for hers, with NO garage, and it's stunning. But she will get it.
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