[ncountylee]

poisoned the Republican Party's claim on Latino voters

Hard to lose what you never had.

[Renderofveils]

Clearly it's all just a campaign issue. (Do I really need a /sarc tag, or is it dripping enough?)

[starbase]

...the venerable Field Poll...

I believe I've heard this poll described as a tool of the Democratic Party. I don't know if it can be shown to be "venerable".

[Amerigomag]

Here's Bill Bradley's take from the left at New West Notes

I am less simpatico, as it were, with Sacramento Bee columnist Dan Walters’ suggestion that Arnold can win by “playing the immigration card.” Drawing a false analogy with the 1994 governor’s race, Walters suggests that Arnold can jump on the illegal immigration horse and ride it to victory over some hapless Democratic campaign.

For starters, Pete Wilson was in much stronger shape than Arnold at this stage of the campaign. His problems were in previous years, not in his election year. He had not just lost on his biggest issue of the year. Though he was not popular, few doubted that he was a real governor, which is not the case with Arnold. He had a real campaign plan, which was developed and executed over a long period of time with a consistent, proven winning team in California. By this point, he had been establishing immigration as a principal issue for him for about eight months, so it was not something he suddenly jumped on to as other things went sour. And immigration was much more of a hot button issue then than it is now. Unlike now, a strong majority of Californians regarded illegal immigration as a serious problem.

Then there is the question of the reality of Arnold’s record. Although he did vote for Wilson’s Proposition 187 measure, Schwarzenegger publicly announced in 2002 that he opposes it, winning a standing ovation at the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco declaring: “I would never stand in the way of a child going to school.” And while he did away with the, shall we say, less than security-minded drivers licenses for illegal immigrants bill signed by then Governor Gray Davis, he has also made statements that make it clear he will support a much more limited license — that looks different from the regular license and can’t be used for purposes other than lawful driving — when the federal government comes up with its guidelines.

My problem with Bradley's take is that there is little evidence to support his 8 months claim except maybe an isolated speech or comment which a Google search doesn't produce. Bill's claim, however, may be true since he was on scene during those years but there is a big difference between concern over the consequences of illegal immigration an a concrete plan to take action.

My fading memory says that Wilson did not hammer or focus on illegal immigration until Prop 187 petitions were in front of grocery stores.

Please correct me if I'm wrong Bill.

[Energy Alley]

Cartoon with unintelligible foreign accent rambling about immigration, what an image that will be. Someone better get him a dialect coach first...

[starbase]

And furthermore, to elaborate on the very high chance that the Field Poll is a bogus left wing tool and not "venerable" at all, consider it "found" that:

Pete Wilson, found himself in early 1994, when the venerable Field Poll reported that 61 percent of voters were opposed to giving him a second term, including 40 percent of Republicans.

But instead what really happened was:

Wilson was not only re-elected, but rang up a 15 percentage-point landslide over Democrat Kathleen Brown

So despite the cyclonic-like spin of saying that, Wow! even that awesome poll was surprised, the data actually demonstrates that the Field Poll, in Wilson's case, was absolute crap and grossly distorted the true sentiment of the elections.

I will remember to be skeptical of this not-venerable Field Poll in future.

[starbase]

I'm still on about these polls. I guess they're all corrupt. I just hate that this article lead with how "venerable" this poll was, so I still think I smell a rat.

Here's excerpts from an old 2003 article in National Review Online that punches holes in CNN and Field polls dating from that time:

Last week's CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll, Aug 7-10, was completed after candidate filing closed. But it uselessly included candidates not running(*). Moreover, it asked respondents if there was a "good or very good chance of voting for…." In other words, the multiple name numbers added up to 172 percent:

Schwarzenegger, 42 percent; Dick Riordan*, 24 percent; Cruz Bustamante, 22 percent; Bill Simon, 13 percent; Tom McClintock, 13 percent; Loretta Sanchez*, 12 percent; John Garamendi*, 10 percent; Peter Ueberroth, 7 percent; Bill Jones*, 8 percent; Arianna Huffington, 7 percent; Peter Camejo, 6 percent; Larry Flynt, 6 percent; Gary Coleman, 2 percent.

This bogus poll was very widely reported as Schwarzenegger, 42 percent; Bustamante 22 percent, etc.

And the second excerpt. It would be interesting to do an exhaustive search on criticisms of specific Polls conducted by polling groups. Maybe one of these days...

Now comes the Field poll, Aug 10-Aug 13. It shows Bustamante, 25 percent; Arnold; 22 percent; etc. The reality: The votes (22 percent) of non-candidates Sanchez (12 percent) and Garamendi (10 percent), not included in this poll, tilted to the one major Democrat, Bustamante.

I'm thinking "venerable poll" is an oxymoron.

[starbase]

Well, regarding the Field Poll, this link goes to their home page where they list their history of major races and ballot measures, etc.

They point out that the final Field Poll taken before an election has been an excellent indicator of race outcomes, ranging from 64% in some ballot measures, to almost 100% in major races.

They also bring up the academic point that comparing the election results to the poll results may not be the most accurate measure of the poll's accuracy for the time at which the poll was taken, which is a scientific, but very fair point.

All in all, with its high record of final poll accuracy, plus the fact that it's been around 56 years, perhaps the Field Poll is "venerable".

[OKIEDOC]

Most of the Hispanics I know are most certainly against illegals and amnesty.

Most say they had to work for what they got and don't want the government cheapening citizenship.

[backhoe]

From the vault of memories:

-Total Recall- the Gray Davis Soap Opera--

-Bustamante Busted? MEChA ties, and more.--

[Ben Ficklin]

"Schwarzenegger, like Wilson, could play the immigration card."

He played it week before last when he joined the Western Governers Association in urging Congress to pass immigration reform.