Skip to comments.Betting on the next election (PLEASE - no wagering...)
Posted on 03/19/2006 12:52:33 PM PST by Libloather
Betting on the next election
Gambling and politics.
Say the words in North Carolina these days and a lot of people will wince, especially Democrats. Some of the tough politicking that pushed the lottery through the legislature last year looks worse and worse the more light that shines on the process.
But there might be some good news in the realm of gambling and politics for those North Carolina Democrats who think their favorite son, John Edwards, has a good chance to win the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008. In fact, anyone who has some extra money can make a lot more money by betting on Edwards than they could ever expect to win in the state lottery if Edwards wins the nomination.
Here is how: For every $6 that someone bets on Edwards, he or she will win $100 again, if Edwards wins the nomination. (Or $60 would get you $1,000; $600 brings back $10,000, or $6,000 would give a $100,000 return.)
To make a bet on Edwards, go to the internet political futures market firm Intrade (intrade.com). Intrade calls itself a Trading Exchange for Prediction Markets, which means that it accepts wagers on the various possible outcomes of political races and other news events.
The good news for Edwards bettors might not be such good news for Edwards himself. The low price for an Edwards contract means that many other bettors do not give him much of a chance.
On the other hand, if you wanted to bet money on Hillary Clinton winning the Democratic nomination, you would have to put up about $43 to get the chance to win $100. For a betting person, Clinton does not have nearly as much upside as Edwards. A lot of people are betting on her.
But for Edwards, Clintons high price is not good news. The smart money is betting on her.
However, there may be worse news for Edwards. The price to bet on former Virginia governor Mark Warner is about $24 for a chance to win $100.
One of Edwardss appeals to Democrats has been his claim to be the Southern candidate, which could be important because the only Democratic presidential candidates to win the popular vote since the 1960 election have been Southerners Lyndon Johnson (1964), Jimmy Carter (1976), Bill Clinton (1992 and 1996) and Al Gore (2000).
Now, the political bettors are telling us that Edwards has a challenger for the Southern candidate, namely Mark Warner, and that Warner has four times better odds to win than Edwards.
What about the chances of other Democrats, in the eyes of the political bettors? Here is a quick rundown from a recent Intrade listing. These are prices for the chance to win $100:
Al Gore-$5; Russ Feingold-$4; Joe Biden-$2.50; Bill Richardson-$2.50; Evan Bayh-$3.50; Barack Obama-$1; John Kerry-$2.
There are lots of others. For a dime or two, you could win $100 if Mike Easley should become the Democratic nominee.
What about the Republican possibilities?
The political bettors favor John McCain. To get $100 if he should win the Republican nomination you would have to put up about $35.
As in the Democratic race, the second strongest candidate comes from Virginia, Senator George Allen. His $100 winning ticket would cost you about $28.
Former New York Mayor Rudy Giulianis bet cost about $11 and Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney about $7; Condoleezza Rice, $4; Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, $3; Newt Gingrich, $3; Bill Frist, $3.
If you are looking for a North Carolina long shot on the Republican side, you can buy a $100 contract on our Senator Elizabeth Dole for 20 or 30 cents.
Finally, Intrade offers contracts on the party to win 2008 presidential election.
If you are willing to bet about $47.50, you can get $100 if the Democratic candidate wins. If you want to bet on the Republicans to win, it will cost about $51.
Are you tempted by any of these possible bets? A lot of North Carolinians have learned never to underestimate the political skills and attractiveness of John Edwards. Some of them will surely bet on him at the bargain price listed for his contracts.
But remember, most gambling in North Carolina is a still a crime.
She's WAY ahead with funds and will suck the air out of anyone else - so to speak. Might as well make some loot on the RAT'S mistake...
U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) (L) hugs Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams as he arrives for their meeting on Capitol Hill in Washington March 16, 2006. REUTERS/Jim Young
John Edwards spent 4 years in the Senate and two years campaigning for VP and that is al the govt experience he has. The rst of his life has been sucking money out of insurance companies with phony law suits.
How can anyone vote for this guy who has nothing going for him except a nice head of hair.
"The political bettors favor John McCain. To get $100 if he should win the Republican nomination you would have to put up about $35."
I'll vote against McCain. There is absolutely NO way that anyone who claims to be conservative will vote for McCain.
IMHO, John Kerry is so unelectable as to be a joke and that goes for John Edwards also. Both men have shown little understanding of what America and Americans are about or maybe they just don't care or think we are truly dumb. President Bush has shown what constancy is; he is decisive as well as a stable, devoted American. Both Kerry and Edwards have repeatedly changed course with the whims of what they think is popular. Kerry is a known and willful, if not artful liar while Edwards is weak in everything pertaining to governing. As the facts keep coming in about Saddam, our President was and is right on the mark, those on the left, the anti-American, anti-war who refuse to except facts, have no solutions other than to cut and run leaving our friends and allies hanging in the breeze and the promise of freedom denied the Iraqis while giving terrorists a free hand. Democrats are truly dim witted when it comes to defending the country and everything American Kerry would leave it to France and Edwards only expertise is to manipulate juries with expert witnesses. The terrorists love them and will work hard within our elections to see that appeasers are elected thus America will have to work harder to stop them. Hillary has Willie Chin, George Soros and the shadowy Ickes (an Abramoff clone) telling her what to do, proving once again, Hillary also hasnt a clue.
How much did you plunk down?..... lol.
For every $6 that someone bets on Edwards, he or she will win $100.
He or she would be better served betting on the obvious - the Hildabeast...
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